Luis Arraez’s Launch Angle Revolution

On Tuesday night time, as I watched Luis Arraez, sparkler in hand, chatting with Otto Lopez exterior the Nationwide League dugout, I couldn’t assist however replicate on how he ended up in Philadelphia. That is Arraez’s fourth All-Star choice, but it surely’s additionally his first in 4 years. Though we’re solely 90 video games into the season, his 3.7 WAR is already a profession excessive. As you certainly know, the largest enchancment in his sport got here with the glove. Michael Rosen put it merely sufficient again in Might, with an article titled “Luis Arraez Is Good at Protection Now.” On the time, Arraez had put up 5 FRV over 30 video games. Within the ensuing 61 video games, he’s accrued one other 3 FRV. The tempo has slowed down, however he’s nonetheless grading out as a superb defender (although the opposite defensive metrics admittedly disagree).

At present, nevertheless, we’re enthusiastic about Arraez’s offensive enchancment. Arraez received his first batting title in 2022, and he did extra than simply put up a excessive batting common. He additionally walked greater than he struck out, incomes a 130 wRC+. He adopted it up with a 131 mark in 2023, although he did so in a barely totally different trend. Each his walks and his strikeouts dropped beneath 6%, however he ran a .362 BABIP, which led to a .354 batting common. Primarily, he leaned method, method into his standing as a contact god, and the sky-high BABIP made all of it work out superbly.

However Arraez took issues too far. In 2024 and 2025 mixed, his stroll and strikeout charges fell beneath 5%, and his .307 BABIP, whereas above the league common, wasn’t adequate to hold an offensive profile that options no walks and no energy. He ran a 107 mixed wRC+, and since he was placing up unfavorable worth within the different components of the sport, he ended up with simply 2.0 WAR. That put his worth squarely between a mean participant and a replacement-level one.

If all Arraez had carried out this yr was return to second base and put up good protection whereas holding that very same, barely above-average batting line, it could have been sufficient to make him an above-average participant once more. However his bat has ticked up too. He went into the break with a 127 wRC+, the third-best mark of his profession. If not for Lopez’s .334 batting common, Arraez’s .330 mark would put him in line for his fourth batting title. Possibly that’s what the 2 had been chatting about throughout the sparkler break. We’re right here to speak about what, if something, Arraez is doing in a different way.

Three issues soar out once we have a look at the same old statistical suspects. Arraez is operating a 6% stroll fee, his finest mark since 2022, and his 4% strikeout fee is the second lowest of his profession. Second, his BABIP is again as much as .330, his highest mark since 2023. Lastly, Arraez is operating an remoted slugging share of .130, nonetheless method beneath the league common, however the highest ISO of his profession by fairly a bit.

It’s shut, however that is the largest hole constructive hole Arraez has ever run between his stroll fee and strikeout fee. As a result of he nearly by no means swings and misses, the 2 have a tendency to maneuver in tandem. When he’s swinging extra, he neither walks nor strikes out. His 32% chase fee is his lowest in three years, whereas his 64% zone swing fee is his highest in three years. Swinging extra within the zone and fewer exterior it’s a good mixture. Nevertheless, Arraez is operating his lowest contact fee since 2021, and that’s in all probability factor.

Plate self-discipline is necessary for Arraez another way than it’s for many hitters. He can hit something in any respect. He nearly by no means whiffs, and that’s not at all times factor. Should you swing at a pitch up at your eyes, you’d relatively find yourself with a swinging strike than a weak popup to the catcher. This yr, Arraez’s contact fee is decrease exterior the zone. Once more, that is relative to his efficiency final yr; he nonetheless makes contact extra than simply about anyone else in baseball, and greater than sufficient contact to keep away from hanging out. And the bat monitoring information exhibits that when he does make contact, he’s squaring the ball up simply as usually as he did earlier than. It’s simply that he’s making contact a bit much less usually, which helps, as a result of even wonderful contact hitters are inclined to get awful outcomes after they swing at dangerous pitches. When he places the ball in play on a pitch that isn’t over the guts of the plate, Arraez has a profession wOBA of .320. On pitches over the guts, that quantity is .356, so it’s nice that 48% of Arraez’s balls in play have come on pitches over the guts of the plate, the best mark of his profession by greater than three share factors. No marvel Arraez’s common exit velocity has ticked as much as its highest mark since 2023, and no marvel his BABIP is again up.

However let’s step again for a second. If Arraez is being choosier on the plate, why is his contact fee taking place? Is he struggling to maintain up as a result of he’s misplaced some bat pace? That’s not it. Quite the opposite, he’s really elevated his common bat pace from 62.6 mph in 2025 to 63.3 mph in 2026. I’m unsure that he’s essentially swinging more durable, although. I feel it has to do with pitch choice. Arraez isn’t simply swinging much less total, he’s swinging much less on the skin a part of the plate:

As we realized when bat monitoring information first got here out a pair years in the past, bat pace will increase all through the swing. Even when your swing is in any other case the identical, swinging at an inside pitch, which you need to meet farther out in entrance, will end in a better bat pace on the level of contact, which is what Statcast measures. The numbers again that up too. Arraez’s common intercept level has moved up practically two inches, and he’s operating the best pull fee of his profession.

One other factor that we had been capable of verify when bat monitoring information got here out is that launch angle tends to extend later in your swing. Your bat path drops at the start of your swing, then begins rising once more because it traverses the hitting zone. Arraez isn’t simply pulling the ball extra, he’s operating the bottom groundball fee and highest fly ball fee of his total profession. For the primary time in his profession, the Pull Air part on his Statcast web page isn’t shaded blue. In a small, small method, Arraez has undertaken his personal launch angle revolution. No marvel he’s slugging extra!

Now, all this may come as a shock to you. It positively got here as a shock to me. As I wrote awhile again, I anticipated the precise reverse from Arraez this season. I figured that taking part in in San Francisco, the place it’s so exhausting to hit a house run to proper area, would encourage Arraez to lean even additional into his method of letting it get deep and capturing it the opposite method. And certainly, all 4 of his dwelling runs have come on the highway. Nevertheless, the results of Oracle Park are extra sophisticated than that.

Oracle is often dying to left-handed hitters, however Arraez is just not a traditional left-handed hitter. The numbers for lefties are so bleak as a result of it suppresses dwelling runs greater than some other park. Guess who stays largely unaffected by that: The man who nearly by no means hits homers. It’s true that Oracle has stolen a number of dwelling runs from Arraez – three of them, by my depend – however all three of them was triples:

And Oracle’s odd dimensions have bestowed different triples upon Arraez, who has a career-high seven this season. That’s the factor about taking part in in San Francisco. The truth that it suppresses homers so dramatically for lefties overshadows the truth that it will increase the charges of different hits. For lefties, the deep dimensions and the bonkers wall fronting McCovey Cove make Oracle the sixth-friendliest park for triples, the seventh friendliest for doubles, and the tenth friendliest for singles. The deep dimensions assist with singles, as a result of they pressure outfielders to play deeper. When Arraez is on the plate this season, outfielders are positioned a mean of 4 ft deeper in left, two ft deeper in heart, and one foot deeper in proper than they had been final yr. As his signature ability is dropping singles in entrance of the outfielders, it’s a BABIP-boosting boon. All of that is to say that Arraez may be the uncommon lefty for whom Oracle is definitely a hitter-friendly park.

There’s a sabermetric slant to all this as properly. I’m unsure how a lot of a lift Arraez’s wRC+ (and due to this fact his WAR) will get from taking part in at Oracle, however he’s getting one. It’s kind of a bizarre scenario. His wRC+ will get that enhance as a result of he’s a lefty, however as a result of he’s not the standard lefty, the park may very well be boosting his precise manufacturing too.

So these are all of the adjustments I’ve seen. I don’t wish to give the impression that Arraez has dramatically modified who he’s, or to say there’s zero scorching air in his BABIP. Two of his triples got here on would-be singles that had been badly misplayed, and his .308 xwOBA is simply 5 factors higher than his 2025 mark. Additionally, in my expertise, sudden drops involved fee exterior the zone aren’t at all times that sticky, so Arraez might find yourself giving again a few of these features. Most necessary, the entire adjustments I’ve simply described are very small. Though Arraez’s hard-hit fee has bounced again from a profession low in 2025, the will increase in each bat pace and common exit velocity quantity to lower than a mile per hour.

Nonetheless, DRC+ is shopping for what Arraez promoting. He’s at the moment at a 113, his highest mark because the 118 he put up in 2023. It’s not shocking and solely mildly regarding that xwOBA isn’t impressed by Arraez’s improved pull fee, as a result of it purposely ignores pull fee. And the change in his method is actual. Arraez is shedding the skin pitch and turning on the within pitch in a method that he wasn’t earlier than. I can’t say for positive whether or not this may proceed, or why Arraez is out of the blue eschewing the skin pitch. It makes him rather less of an outlier, rather less Luis Arraez-y, but it surely’s actually understanding for him up to now.