Jayson Tatum’s soar shot has turn out to be a significant speaking level amongst not solely Celtics followers, however all through your complete NBA group. Can Jayson Tatum shoot? Did his time within the weight room break his soar shot? Does it even matter if Tatum can shoot?
For a participant that’s had as a lot success as Tatum, it’s a little bit weird how hyper fixated individuals (myself included) are on his jumper. The truth is that relating to capturing an orange ball right into a basket 24 ft away, there is a component of luck and variance. That is true for all basketball gamers. Not simply Jayson Tatum.
For instance, Luka Doncic missed 21 straight three pointers within the NBA Finals. It’s laborious to just accept as basketball followers that typically capturing, particularly within the playoffs, comes right down to luck. Followers don’t care about giant pattern sizes and statistical phrases like “variance” once we’re on our knees begging for a Tatum three pointer to go in. Gamers can have whole seasons the place they shoot effectively above their profession averages whereas then again, gamers can have season-long capturing slumps.
Can Jayson Tatum shoot in any respect? The reply is unequivocally sure. Throughout a seven-year profession (common season and playoffs mixed), Tatum has made 1,559 out of 4,215 three pointers or 36.98%, which is above the league common ~36%. Extra just lately, Tatum simply loved his finest common season capturing the ball because the 2020-2021 season – delivering a three-point proportion of 37.5%. That’s an elite quantity once you consider Tatum’s excessive quantity and excessive problem three level shot eating regimen.
Over the previous season, there have been 55 whole gamers that took not less than six three pointers per sport. Tatum ranked twenty seventh in three level proportion amongst them. Notable gamers that had a worse three level proportion than Tatum final season have been Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, Trae Younger, Tyrese Maxey, Darius Garland, Tyrese Haliburton, and Mikal Bridges. Of the 26 gamers forward of Tatum, I labeled 14 of them as catch and shoot specialists – Luke Kennard, Malik Beasley, Donte DiVincenzo, Michael Porter Jr, and so on. The purpose is, Tatum had a extremely spectacular common season capturing the ball once you have a look at his three-point shot profile.
Nonetheless, that proportion cratered within the playoffs to twenty-eight.3%. Within the Finals, he made simply 10-of-38. The Olympics weren’t any higher. He missed all 4 for Crew USA. So, the query stays: can Tatum nonetheless shoot?
The Muscle Concept
Some have hypothesized that Tatum has gotten too jacked, that the elevated dimension of his *superb* deltoids and biceps have impacted his capturing type and capturing capacity. That is nonsense. As I simply laid out, Tatum shot 37.5% from three-point vary this previous common season, his highest mark because the 2020-2021 season. Did the muscle mass solely affect Tatum’s capturing within the playoffs? If something, gamers are inclined to lose a small quantity of muscle by means of the common season and postseason as there isn’t sufficient time of their schedule to elevate as typically as in the course of the offseason. To not point out, there are numerous examples of gamers getting considerably larger and stronger all through their profession whereas not dropping their capturing capacity with Steph Curry being the obvious instance right here.
I’m not going to faux to be knowledgeable shot physician. I simply acquired again from the park the place I shot 39% (being beneficiant) on solo jumpers. However I’ve pulled collectively a number of three pointers from every of Tatum’s 2020, 2022 and 2024 playoff runs to check his shot type.
I have to emphasize how a lot I’m not a capturing knowledgeable. If the identify of the celeb capturing coach that mounted Grant Williams’ soar shot is Deadly Shooter, my celeb influencer capturing identify can be Innocent Shooter. That being mentioned, I can’t make out any noticeable variations in Tatum’s capturing type. The principle takeaway from that video is what number of large pictures Tatum has hit in his younger profession.
Is the dangerous capturing a playoff-specific downside? Tatum has shot a mixed 30.4% from three over his final two playoff runs. These samples are simply too small to make sweeping declarations a couple of participant’s capturing capacity. Throughout the final two playoffs mixed, Tatum shot 304 whole three pointers, which might make up solely half of Tatum’s 2024 common season three-point makes an attempt. We’re solely two playoffs faraway from the 2022 Finals run the place Tatum shot 39.3% from three which was possible a little bit of an outlier within the different course. It might be nice if we may simply get Tatum’s profession three-point common each night time. Sadly, the variance gods don’t function that method.
Shot choice
Tatum takes powerful pictures. A number of them he has to take, however a few of them he in all probability doesn’t need to take. The truth is, superstars need to take powerful pictures. Once you break down which pictures Tatum made versus which pictures he missed within the 2024 Playoffs, it’s very clear that the pictures that didn’t fall have been the tightly contested ones.
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Tatum merely shot higher on tightly contested three-point makes an attempt within the earlier two playoff runs, 27.9% in 2023 and 29.2% in 2022 in comparison with 10.4% within the 2024 Playoffs per Synergy monitoring.
Do you wish to make the case that Tatum ought to simply take much less powerful pictures and drive to the rim extra? Positive, however the factor is, the numbers would point out that Tatum agrees with you. Tatum took much less tightly contested threes per sport within the 2024 Playoffs than in each the 2023 and 2024 Playoffs.
Additionally, simply whole three-point quantity. This previous playoffs was Tatum’s lowest mark since he grew to become The Man within the 2019-20 season. Tatum took much less threes per 36 minutes within the 2024 Playoffs than each playoff run going all the way in which again to the 2018-19 season.
Did Tatum really feel that the three ball wasn’t there so he didn’t power it? Did it turn out to be apparent that the right method was getting downhill and collapsing the protection again and again so he may spray passes out to elite shooters everywhere in the court docket? In all probability a little bit little bit of column A and a little bit bit from column B. The truth that Tatum barely altered his method to raised affect the crew in a method that I didn’t beforehand discover till diving into that is such a quintessential Jayson Tatum trait. He’s been miscast as a Kobe disciple when he’s actually a wing model of Tim Duncan.
Does Tatum’s capturing actually matter?
You need to now imagine deep in your coronary heart that Tatum really is an effective shooter. We will now transfer on to the extra fascinating query of whether or not it really issues if Jayson Tatum is an effective shooter. The reply is not any, it doesn’t matter.
To place it merely – if Jayson Tatum had hit another three pointer per sport within the playoffs, he would have shot 42% from three and the Celtics would have gone 16-3 on the way in which to the title. That is what makes Jayson Tatum particular and distinctive as a participant. His affect is just not outlined by his three-point shot stepping into.
So long as groups proceed to protect Tatum as if he can shoot, that’s all that actually issues. Simply the specter of Tatum’s pull-up three opens up all of the driving lanes we noticed within the Finals. He has to maintain taking them. And extra importantly, it doesn’t matter if Tatum isn’t an incredible shooter as a result of he’s glorious at each different side of the sport of basketball which is why Tatum’s affect on profitable is just not on the mercy of the capturing variance gods.
That is simply absurd versatility and affect. Firstly, Tatum is guarding the opposing middle Evan Mobley, which isn’t one thing you may ask many wings within the NBA to do. Max Strus finds Isaac Okoro on a slip to the rim. Tatum helps off Mobley to guard the rim and forces the miss. This results in a wide-open Al Hoford three in transition, which he misses, however that’s okay as a result of Tatum will get the offensive rebound with a managed tip again to Horford. Al then finds Tatum within the put up. Tatum skips a go to Jrue Vacation within the nook for a large open three. That’s a five-point swing in a 1-1 playoff collection on the highway. I’d like to spend extra time speaking about all of the other ways Jayson Tatum impacts a basketball sport, however we’ll have to avoid wasting that for one more day.
It wasn’t an accident that Jayson Tatum led the Celtics in playoff factors, rebounds and assists; whether or not or not Tatum’s three-point shot falling or not was largely irrelevant. Clearly, the orange ball going within the basket extra typically can be higher for each Tatum and the Celtics. However once you’re the engine of top-of-the-line offenses and defenses within the NBA, one additional three-point basket per sport is just not meaningfully altering the fortunes of the Boston Celtics.
