Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/24/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! In the present day I deliver you a relatively temporary chat (simply an hour) and the ultimate one from this 2 pm ET time slot. Subsequent week, I’ll be a part of our group Wild Card chat (particulars tba), and in two weeks, I’m planning to debut within the 12 pm ET slot on Tuesdays.

Jay Jaffe: That is primarily as a result of parenting tasks — largely pick-ups from college  — have been reducing into this 2 pm time. I hope these of you who’ve joined me right here will make the journey.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve obtained a chunk at this time that’s the primary of a four-part sequence, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the remaining contenders in a Alternative Degree Killers-style journey across the diamond, solely this time with pitching as nicely. This primary installment is dedicated to one of the best within the NL https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-strongest-positions-on-the-remaining-n…

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the present…

brooklyn resident: Ohtani: finest DH season ever?

Jay Jaffe: Sure, i feel that’s a good assertion

Rick: Adell confirmed some 2nd half enhancements earlier than getting damage and went 20/15 in 400 abs. How seemingly can he be a 30 HR hitter and up his common to the .230 vary. He was a prime prospect, perhaps he’s a late bloomer

Jay Jaffe: He lastly caught within the majors for a full season and shaved 7.5 share factors off his earlier carer strikeout charge however .207/.280/.402 (90 wRC+) is nothing to write down residence about. He did fall a bit in need of his .231 xBA and .431 xSLG however he didn’t hit the ball arduous sufficient to offset his 28% strikeout charge. It’s a begin however he’s nonetheless not the place he ought to be given his prospect days

Harvey Wallbanger: Brewers haven’t misplaced greater than three video games in a row all yr, they’ve the fewest blowout losses in MLB by a big margin, they’re prime notch throughout the boards in all of the little issues like bullpen WPA, DRS, BsR, hitting with RISP, hitting with two outs, they’ve the outdated codger archetype supervisor, with a roster stuffed with younger place gamers that don’t know any higher…might this lastly be their yr?!?!?!?

Jay Jaffe: They’ve obtained loads going for them however I take a look at that lineup and see simply 4 regulars with a 100 wRC+ or higher with Yelich out. I’d mood my hopes

Talfred: With younger outfielders on the rise in Boston, the Crimson Sox aren’t going to search out a lot of a marketplace for Yoshida, are they? A platoon lefty bat with little energy, protection or baserunning worth is a troublesome promote at $18MM per.

Jay Jaffe: In the event that they take in sufficient wage they will discover a new residence for him. Anyone should play for the White Sox

Inverse Cy Younger: Has Mikolas or Corbin been the most important internet detrimental in certified SP? I deliver this up as a result of each are okay through FIP, however ERA and the attention check say they’ve been horrible. It appears FIP misses one thing with guys like them.

Jay Jaffe: Properly, the purpose of FIP is to deal with the defense-independent facets of pitching (strikeouts, walks, homers), however the assumption that held for the higher a part of twenty years — that main league pitchers don’t differ enormously on their capability to manage balls in play — has been considerably supplanted by Statcast information that reveals that some pitchers are higher than others at suppressing arduous contact. Mikolas and Corbin each have 5+ ERAs and 4.3-ish FIPs, however their xERAs — which consider Statcast batted ball information in addition to their walks and strikeouts — reveals Corbin with a 5.57 mark, worst amongst qualifiers, however Mikolas with a 4.47 mark, not good however not hopeless.

Bay of Bengal: I’m not a Tigers fan — I’m an O’s fan — however it appears to me that in MLB’s new four-round playoff extravaganza, the group that wins is the most popular group, not one of the best. Thus I predict the Tigers win the World Collection.What’s your take? Who’s scorching and able to sweep via higher regular-season groups subsequent month?

Jay Jaffe: What it reveals is that September information don’t predict October efficiency. There’s nearly no correlation, and for each red-hot 2007 Rockies group streaking via the playoffs there’s a 2006 Cardinals group in some way getting their shit collectively on the final minute

Jay Jaffe: That the Tigers have perhaps two viable beginning pitchers didn’t even determine in your considering, huh?

Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: As voters have develop into extra sabermetrically-inclined lately, do positional awards like ASG appearances, Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves, and so on. nonetheless maintain weight? Or are they extra window dressing at this level?

Jay Jaffe: They’re peripheral numbers that assist body a participant’s case, however they fluctuate in worth. Completely no person pays consideration to the Silver Slugger awards; I certain as hell don’t. Gold Gloves have gotten a bit extra helpful due to the incorporation of the SABR Defensive Index aggregating a number of completely different metrics into 25% of the vote. All-Star appearances are more durable to amass the extra the leagues broaden, and generally nice gamers get bypassed. Francisco Lindor hasn’t made an All-Star group as a Met on account of some sluggish begins, and since Adrian Beltre’s defensive worth was underestimated he made solely 4 All-Star groups in an incredible profession.

Sodo Mojo: In case your the Mariner’s do you pencil in Robles as a starter subsequent yr based mostly on the final 200 at bats or given his monitor report do you usher in one other starter within the off season.

Jay Jaffe: Given the two-year, $9.75 million extension Robles already signed with the Mariners, it appears fairly clear they consider him as a starter. He was at all times well-regarded as a prospect, however it took a change of surroundings and a few mechanical changes to get him so far (see Davy Andrews right here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vacillating-for-victor-robles/). That’s to not say that he received’t regress however as we’ve seen again and again, swing adjustments can enormously alter a participant’s profession path.

jackson: merrill or chourio remainder of profession?

Jay Jaffe: Sure please!

Jay Jaffe: Should you’re asking me to choose between the 2, hell, I dunno. I’d go along with Merrill as a result of did very nicely in middle whereas Chourio is now a nook outfielder (he did very nicely there, by the metrics). Eric Longehagen had Chourio fifth and Merrill sixth on his High 100 — that is just about a toss-up.

Talfred: Apart from a single Ohtani begin following a 2-inning outing, neither Ohtani nor Yamamoto have ever pitched on fewer than 5 days of relaxation. Is there any means that the Dodgers may even take into account a 5-man rotation subsequent yr?

Jay Jaffe: Extra seemingly they use a modified 5-man as they did earlier within the yr, utilizing spot starters and openers to purchase the occasional further day of relaxation for each. It is going to be an attention-grabbing juggling act; let’s hope it doesn’t reprise this yr’s shuttle to the IL, which appears to board every day.

A Identify: Wonderful that the worst group of all time (the Yankees) is about to win their division. Clearly Cole and Rodon are the primary two playoff starters, however I’m wondering in the event that they maintain all 4 of the opposite starters on the roster and piggyback, say, Gil/Cortes and Schmidt/Stroman? That appears like a solution to handle threat with some high-variance pitchers.

Jay Jaffe: Stroman has already been instructed he would pitch out of the bullpen within the postseason so I think the selection for the opposite starters might depend upon matchups and their estimation of whether or not Gil is bodily as much as the duty given his big workload enhance.

Andrew: My favourite a part of the offseason is studying your HOF profiles. Are there any first-time candidates you’re notably excited to write down about?

Jay Jaffe: oh it’s a bumper crop this yr: Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia are the 2 huge ones; Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Felix Hernandez all deserve prolonged value determinations as their careers aren’t that far off the typical Corridor of Famer, and since I’ve needed to hearken to years and years of Yadier Molina-flavored reward, I’m going to pound the desk concerning the worth of pitch framing on the subject of the circumstances of Russell Martin and Brian McCann, each of whom have been about as priceless as Molina when you incorporate these numbers.

Phil: How a lot rope and/or time ought to Pirates followers give the present entrance workplace?  Whereas they may have one thing with creating arms, the bats are non-existent.

Jay Jaffe: The bats are an issue, however the true downside is possession’s willingness to compete for high quality free brokers

Astros 1B: Who am I subsequent yr? Pete may very well be a attention-grabbing choice in the event that they let Breg stroll, however the class is fairly dire after that and no prospect of theirs has a ok bat to waste at 1B. Singleton is playable, however not ultimate for a contender

Jay Jaffe: It wouldn’t shock me in any respect if Alonso have been to signal with the Astros, although they might repeat their talent of catching falling knives by going or Paul Goldschmidt or Anthony Rizzo or Justin Turner or… they might additionally do the stopgap factor and take a look at Carlos Santana or Josh Bell, both for a full season or simply the final two months in the event that they signal with non-contenders (as has so typically occurred).

Jon Singleton is a good human curiosity story however at finest a bench man.

Jim: Does six weeks in Indy value Skenes the Cy, or will his manufacturing outweigh his relative lack of bulk?

Jay Jaffe: I feel Chris Sale’s wonderful and full season goes to be what prices Skenes the Cy however it’s value noting that Sale’s 2.09 FIP is a good distance higher than Skenes’ 2.48, and over a bigger footprint of innings.

birds birds birds: I do know the playoffs are mainly coin tosses, however how a lot better would the O’s odds of advancing be with Grayson Rodriguez making a begin than Suarez/Kremer?

Jay Jaffe: That is an especially Dan Szymborski-flavored questiontaht will in all probability be answered quickly.

Mark S: After a Cy Younger season, what does Chris Sale must do over the rest of his profession to really feel comparatively secure a couple of HOF spot? He’s as much as 54 bWAR and 48 JAWS, nonetheless in need of the normal benchmarks however a lot better than the place he was heading into his age 35 season.

Jay Jaffe: Principally he simply wants bulk. He’s nonetheless in need of 2,000 innings and whereas I don’t count on him to get to three,000, he in all probability wants a couple of extra wholesome seasons (say, 150 innings) to make his case extra strong.

NL-A’s fan: Jay, do you suppose it unhealthy for baseball that the White Sox are such a joke this yr or is it constructive that them seemingly braking the report attracts extra consideration to baseball?

Jay Jaffe: it’s unhealthy for baseball.

Jay Jaffe: Significantly having a large-market group that ought to be on sturdy monetary footing doing a poverty act and mainly banging rocks collectively as an alternative of utilizing fashionable analytics strategies is a rattling embarrassment.

Brewer fan: On the Brewers, it’s actually 5 on a regular basis hitters with a wRC+ over 100 together with Mitchell….They’ve held fairly regular among the many prime run producing lineups all season even with out Yelich on account of getting on base and baserunning.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t rely Mitchell in that group as a result of he has solely 209 PA and his Statcast numbers don’t counsel what he’s doing is especially sustainable (.393 xSLG, for one). However we’ll see if I’m incorrect

Mike: Will Baldelli maintain his job (heck, the FO too?) if the Twins don’t make the playoffs?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a very good query. I feel they’ll in all probability survive — I hope so for the sake of outdated pal Kevin Goldstein — however that is wanting like a extremely grotesque collapse recently.

Visitor: Do you suppose we’re going to see a repeat of the 2023 Dodgers this yr?  An amazing group undone within the post-season by a scarcity of high quality beginning pitching?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s completely doable they go that route. I imply, a yr in the past I couldn’t have instructed you who Landon Knack was and now he’s fairly probably their Recreation 3 starter.

Idiotic Failson: I’m assuming Gleyber leaves and Jazz strikes to 2nd. What do the Yankees do at third subsequent yr?

Jay Jaffe: they take Gil McDougald out of cryostorage.

Jay Jaffe: I think they don’t commit both solution to Chisholm till not less than after the winter conferences as a result of they in all probability have to make a commerce to fill one place or the opposite

Michael Scarn: The Braves had an opportunity to set their rotation to permit Sale to pitch tonight and Sunday.  They determined to pitch him solely as soon as, Wednesday.  Might or not it’s that the Braves would reasonably miss the postseason than to make use of Sale in g162 which implies he could be unavailable for the first spherical?

Jay Jaffe: I famous this in yesterday’s and at this time’s items. Sale has already thrown extra innings than in any season since 2017, and his fastball velo is down sufficient that they felt they couldn’t push him for 2 begins on common relaxation. I don’t suppose for a second it’s a matter of “reasonably miss the postseason” a lot as it’s believing they’ve a greater shot at going someplace by giving him a bit of additional relaxation and hoping they’ve sufficient arms (and bats) to make up floor.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What has been essentially the most enjoyably stunning factor for you this common season?

Jay Jaffe: three issues which are very centered round my very own viewing habits:

1) Ohtani’s newfound zeal for stealing bases, which has made for an historic season

2) Choose’s otherworldly efficiency since snapping out of his season-opening stoop, to not point out his good well being (knocks wooden)

3) Lindor’s vault into the MVP race whereas serving to the Mets turned what regarded prefer it is perhaps a writeoff season into one which’s been quite a lot of enjoyable to look at.

wheelhouse: what are the chances mike elias is the orioles GM in 2027? brutal string of transactions this yr except for the burnes commerce

Jay Jaffe: In all probability nonetheless fairly good. You possibly can quibble with the offers he did/didn’t do that yr however he’s turned the franchise round and has a complete boatload of expertise and a brand new, dedicated proprietor. No matter what occurs over the subsequent six weeks, we haven’t heard the final of this group

Jay Jaffe: OK of us, I stated this is able to be a brief one, and I’m going to chop if off right here. Thanks a lot for stopping by to assist bid farewell to my 2pm timeslot. Look ahead to me at 12pm on Tuesdays, beginning in two weeks.