With the information that Jaylen Brown’s hip flexor damage will preserve him out of not less than yet one more contest, I wished to look at how the staff’s assault adjustments with out him on the ground. Brown’s damage has clearly been impacting his play (his area purpose percentages are far worse from practically in all places on the courtroom), so hopefully, some relaxation will do him good.
Nonetheless, the present goes on. In case you embrace final yr, we’ve got a reasonably good pattern of how the staff’s fashion adjustments with out Brown, so let’s break it down.
Much less rim stress and fewer freebies
Jaylen Brown leads the Celtics in drives per recreation this season with 13.3, practically twice as many as Jayson Tatum’s second-place 7.6 (the hole wasn’t as huge final yr, however Brown nonetheless led with 10.1 to Tatum’s 9.1).
In a associated observe, Synergy says that Boston solely ran eight isolations as a staff in every of the Atlanta and the Charlotte video games; they’d averaged 15.8 within the six video games prior.
And, in fact, fewer drives imply fewer free throws. The Celtics are way more seemingly to attract a whistle when Brown is on the courtroom. He generates loads of free throws himself, however forcing the protection into rotation additionally makes it simpler for different Celtics to assault out-of-position defenders and draw free throws, too.
Extra passing
When you have fewer isolations, it is sensible you’d have extra passes, proper? This could be the change that’s most seen to the bare eye.
On the whole, Boston’s offense will not be notably pass-heavy, rating within the backside half of the league every year of coach Joe Mazzulla’s tenure. In fact, that’s not an indictment of the record-breaking offensive system; the Celtics merely don’t must work as exhausting as different groups to fabricate shot!
Brown’s function is to be a play-finisher excess of a playmaker, and he has the bottom variety of internet passes on the staff (he receives 46 passes per recreation however solely makes 31). With out Brown’s skill to get to the rim, although, the staff does need to manufacture extra openings by passing moderately than on-ball creation. Within the earlier two video games with out Brown, the staff averaged practically 15 extra passes per recreation. That’s not good or dangerous, however it’s noteworthy.
An uptick in threes
To compensate for the shortage of Brown’s on-ball creation, the staff shoots oodles extra threes — this yr, the Celtics’ three-point try price goes up 9.9% when Brown is off the ground, a humongous change in shot weight-reduction plan. It was greater than a 5% change final yr. (This partially explains the less free throw makes an attempt Boston attracts with out Brown, as properly).
Dropping Brown redistributes his pictures to the Celtics’ different succesful gamers, each one in every of whom (minus Luke Kornet and Neemias Queta) has shot greater than half of their makes an attempt from three (in comparison with Brown’s comparatively low 30%). Sixth Man of the Yr candidate Payton Pritchard has seen his scoring leap from 14.7 factors with Brown to twenty within the two video games with out him regardless of taking part in an an identical minutes load, and it was a fair larger bounce final yr!
So, to summarize, the Celtics lean much more into their long-distance marksmanship, though it requires just a little extra passing to get there. The staff’s offense has by no means struggled with or with out Brown (they went 12-0 with out him final yr and are undefeated in two video games this yr), nevertheless it appears just a little completely different.
Brown’s head-down drives to the basket are an important supply of Celtics offense, notably on the uncommon nights the three-pointer isn’t falling. Within the playoffs, having as some ways to attain as potential stays paramount. However for the common season, we’ve got ample proof to counsel that the staff can survive with out him for brief spurts.
