10 takeaways from a buzzer-beater night in the Garden

#1 – The statistical similarities

In case you are conversant in my method, you may need observed I really like to speak about techniques as a lot as I like to make use of statistics. In basketball, there are a few group statistics classes that I actually like to make use of to higher perceive the sport I watched or to substantiate an impression I’ve.

The primary class is the 4 elements. These 4 elements had been recognized by Dean Oliver and outlined because the numbers to observe to grasp basketball success. These numbers are:

Taking pictures (40%)

Turnovers (25%)

Rebounding (20%)

Free Throws (15%)

(The quantity in parentheses is the approximate weight Mr. Oliver assigned every issue.)

Final night time, the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors had been nearly the identical, which is uncommon and explains why the sport was so shut and went to extra time.

Each groups shot at above-average effectivity (55.6% eFG%), had been excellent at not turning the ball over (under 10% turnover charge), had been aggressive on the boards (above 32% offensive rebound charge), and didn’t go to the free-throw line quite a bit (under 18 free-throw charge). So, had been the Raptors and the Celtics two twins enjoying the identical sport plan?

#2 – The statistical variations

Properly, clearly not. This is the reason the 4 elements are extra of a statistical class to measure success however not the method itself. To raised perceive the sport plan and the method, the taking pictures frequency could be very useful. As a human, I can discover tendencies, however I can’t rely the variety of photographs in each space for each groups; that’s why I exploit stats right here too.

Final night time, whereas the groups seemed related if we targeted on the 4 elements, the shot frequency was as completely different because it will get. The Celtics took solely 14% of their makes an attempt on the rim in comparison with 35% for the Raptors. Past the road, we additionally see an enormous hole, with the Raptors solely taking 9 above-the-break threes, whereas the Celtics took 37 makes an attempt from there.

I wished to focus on how generally statistics can inform either side of a narrative and point out how vital it’s to all the time combine them with different stats, context, and watching the sport itself.

#3 – The Jays taking on in OT

With 51 factors out of 126, the Celtics’ duo scored 40% of the Celtics’ factors towards the Raptors. Nevertheless, in extra time, when the Celtics wanted it, the Jays delivered. The teaching workers ran a couple of performs for them, like this Zoom Motion (off-ball display and a handoff) for Jaylen Brown. The second display from Kornet opens the shot for Jaylen, who loves these clutch moments.

fter Jaylen delivered, Jayson took it upon himself to maintain the Celtics above the Raptors. A robust drive with a left-hand end… lovely. There was concern about his capacity to complete on the rim—properly, this yr, he’s making 80% of his rim makes an attempt.

The offensive animation wasn’t good late within the sport, and the Raptors confirmed nice power regardless of enjoying on a back-to-back. The offensive creation was a bit shaky, however once more, the Jays are right here to take and make the robust photographs when it issues essentially the most.

#4 – The ultimate play wasn’t drawn like this

Final night time, the enduring Jayson Tatum shot wasn’t meant to occur… nevertheless it did. How do we all know it wasn’t imagined to occur? Properly, first, as a result of Jayson Tatum instructed it himself to Abby Chin after the sport.

Additionally, you may see his face when Jaylen Brown falls down. He appears on the clock on the opposite facet of the court docket to guage how a lot time he has left and course of what he can do about it.

The unique play was a Sturdy Movement motion with staggered screens off-ball for Jaylen Brown, however Davion Mitchell didn’t let that occur.

#5 – Jayson Tatum’s passing retains rising

Over the past 5 video games, he has averaged eight assists alongside 29 factors and 9 rebounds on nice effectivity. Whereas his scoring doesn’t shock me a lot, his passing appears to have taken one other leap. Towards the Nets a couple of days in the past, I used to be left speechless by this skip go to Horford within the clutch.

Final night time, he confirmed once more how a lot of a fantastic passer he’s. This season, he was additionally capable of develop a brand new capacity: the no-look go. This would possibly sound like a gadget, however there’s extra to it. With these new passing talents, Jayson is ready to manipulate defenses much more and be harmful in a larger variety of conditions.

Plus, like yearly, his capacity to drive and dish (or drive and kick) has improved. He retains getting higher at mastering timing and studying the protection’s placement.

#6 – Jaylen Brown’s free-throw hunt

Jaylen Brown’s capacity to attract fouls has been, for a couple of seasons, a giant speaking level amongst Celtics analysts. Why doesn’t he draw extra fouls? What might he do to regulate and generate extra journeys to the road?

Properly, final night time, as he has been doing for the reason that begin of the season, Jaylen Brown hunted fouls and was capable of get to the road. This season, his taking pictures foul charge is as much as 16%, the 93rd percentile for a wing. It is a nice enchancment from his ordinary 11%. His offensive season has been on and off and may be addressed in one other article, however this new weapon in his sport is nice information for the Celtics.

One other piece of fine information from the FT line is his effectivity. The pattern measurement remains to be small, however he’s properly above his final season’s effectivity, with nearly 79% of free throws made.

#7 – Queta as a lob risk

The Celtics’ spacing challenge has been mentioned quite a bit with Kristaps Porziņģis out for months. His three-point shot is usually talked about, however we are inclined to neglect about his lob risk, which creates vertical spacing.

We generally neglect how beneficial vertical spacing is. If you happen to surprise how essential it may be, take into consideration the Celtics’ offense in 2021-22 with Robert Williams’ vertical spacing within the beginning lineup.

Final season, the Celtics made 104 alley-oops; 32 of them had been for KP. This season, the Celtics can use Queta as a lob risk, and final night time’s sport was a fantastic illustration of it. Up to now this season, Queta has made 12 of the 20 Celtics’ alley-oops, and three got here final night time. What I really like about it’s that they had been assisted by three completely different Celtics: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White.

Whereas the Jayson Tatum alley-oop to Queta got here from a basic pick-and-roll, the opposite two from Zoom Motion began from completely different areas on the court docket. Jaylen began from the wing:

And Derrick White’s began from the highest:

This highlights how properly Queta is aware of find out how to rim-run and alter based mostly on the defensive protection, ball place, and timing of the motion. An ideal addition to the rotation this yr and really enjoyable to observe.

#8 – Bench affect within the third

Speaking in regards to the rotation, the bench stored the Celtics near the Raptors within the third quarter. Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet, and Jordan Walsh scored 19 of the Celtics’ 30 factors and made the run to ensure the Raptors weren’t going anyplace. Alongside Jayson Tatum’s playmaking and his 4 assists in 12 minutes, the bench gamers confirmed how nice they’re at ending.

The second unit has a fantastic match with JT, who could make the offense shine with out making any photographs. He was capable of generate the benefit, appeal to defensive consideration, and ensure PP, Sam, and the remainder of the crew had the open photographs they wanted to maintain the Celtics within the sport.

#9 – Toronto’s off-ball motion made the Celtics’ protection look dangerous

You may be questioning, if all these takeaways had been constructive, how come the Celtics nearly misplaced to one of many worst groups within the NBA? First, as a result of even the worst group within the NBA is harmful. The Raptors are well-coached, good, and hard, and so they knew find out how to assault the Celtics.

Because the begin of the season, the Celtics have been enjoying poorly defensively in comparison with their requirements. The transition protection has been messy, and the rim safety is nowhere to be discovered with KP out. Nevertheless, how did a group and not using a nice offensive initiator punish the Celtics on the rim so typically? Properly, velocity and off-ball motion.

Within the instance above, the Raptors run a Zoom Motion, which will get 100% of the Celtics’ protection’s consideration. Whereas this occurs, RJ Barrett cuts behind Jayson Tatum, and so they have an open shot on the rim.

One other instance right here was a fantastic play-call from Darko Rajaković that made the Celtics pay for his or her dangerous off-ball defensive rotation. They run a Ghost Flare motion the place Gradey Dick units a faux on-ball display and makes use of Pöltl’s flare display to lose Sam Hauser. Jaylen Brown stays on Pöltl, Queta is method too far to assist, and it results in one other open shot on the rim.

If the Celtics had some bother successful final night time, it was due to their off-ball protection. Nonetheless, the on-ball protection and pick-and-roll defensive protection weren’t good both.

#10 – Decide-and-roll defensive protection

Final night time, the Celtics couldn’t comprise RJ Barrett’s pick-and-roll sport, however had they even tried? I stay below the impression that they didn’t and had been pleased with the photographs the Raptors took; they simply didn’t count on them to make these at such a excessive charge.

The Celtics’ pick-and-roll defensive protection was a mushy drop, or a mushy comprise, as you favor. The on-ball defender was going below the display as a result of RJ Barrett can’t pull up, permitting them to comprise the drive. Nevertheless, the screener’s defender additionally helped to comprise the drive.

This drew lots of defensive consideration to the ball and RJ Barrett, which opened the ground for Pöltl. The Austrian was unstoppable from the brief mid-range final night time, however the Celtics determined to dwell with it. They switched it to just a little bit extra agressive protection later within the sport, however the short-mid vary was nonetheless open.

You might argue it was dangerous, however the brief mid-range isn’t an environment friendly space on the ground, and so they trusted their course of that Pöltl wouldn’t make sufficient of them to lose. It nearly labored out for the Raptors, however the basketball gods had been on the Celtics’ facet final night time.