The Blue Jays have an interest free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, stories Bob Nightengale of USA At this time. Nightengale additionally mentions that the membership is pursuing high pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The membership has beforehand been linked to high free agent starters comparable to Fried and Blake Snell in latest weeks, so Burnes being on the listing as effectively is aligned with these pursuits.
The reference to Santander is a wise one. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays to signal Santander when our Prime 50 Free Brokers listing got here out earlier this month. The Jays are a wise match for an outfielder and a potent bat, two bins that will be checked by Santander.
Proper now, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as the 2 established massive leaguers of their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgical procedure in September and it’s doable that he’ll miss the opening of the 2025 season. Springer is now 35 years outdated and has seen his wRC+ decline for 5 straight years now. He had a 155 wRC+ in 2019 however that quantity has gone to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 lately.
Along with these two, the Jays have loads of different theoretical choices to take taking part in time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger and Steward Berroa are all outfield choices on the 40-man roster, however there’s not a lot certainty there. Schneider is the one one with greater than 81 massive league video games on his observe document and he’s coming off a irritating season. In brief, there’s loads of room for the Jays to make an exterior addition.
Extra broadly, some dwelling run pop could be welcome within the lineup. The Jays had been center of the pack by way of wRC+ and on-base share in 2024 however had been twenty sixth within the majors by way of dwelling runs, forward of simply the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Solely six guys on the membership obtained to double digits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the one Blue Jay to get to twenty dingers on the 12 months.
Santander can definitely present that energy, having simply hit 44 dwelling runs this previous 12 months. With 105 homers over the previous three seasons, he’s sixth within the majors for that timeframe behind star sluggers Aaron Decide, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. The Jays have a bunch of key contributors who hit from the correct aspect, comparable to Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, so Santander’s switch-hitting capacity seemingly provides to the attraction. He’s not an incredible defender however he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the previous three years for a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which might enable them to restrict the draw back of his glovework.
It appears honest to conclude that Santander could be a fallback plan within the occasion the Jays don’t achieve touchdown Juan Soto. The Jays are one of many golf equipment nonetheless plausibly within the combine for Soto, with affords anticipated to come back on this week.
Soto ticks lots of the identical bins as Santander, as he’s a lefty-swinging outfielder with energy, however he’s the extra engaging free agent for just a few causes. Soto is way youthful, as he’s now 26 whereas Santander is 30. Soto’s elite eye on the plate can be in a special stratosphere in comparison with Santander. Soto’s 18.8% stroll charge in his profession is roughly double a traditional league common and better than his 17% strikeout charge. Santander, in the meantime, takes a free go at a subpar 7.3% clip.
Based mostly on these variations, Soto goes to be Plan A for lots of golf equipment, who will then view Santander as a possible security alongside different free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. Whereas MLBTR predicted Soto for a $600MM assure, Santander was projected for a deal of $80MM over 4 years, clearly way more reasonably priced.
Santander has been linked to the Yankees this winter as one in all many gamers the Yanks might flip to in the event that they don’t get Soto and the Jays seemingly view their state of affairs equally. Soto is broadly anticipated to safe a record-breaking contract of some sort, so groups will naturally need to assess their payroll ledgers and contemplate the domino results of such a contract earlier than pivoting to different strikes.
On the pitching aspect, the Jays have been linked to a couple beginning pitchers already, as talked about. The Jays have a veteran entrance three of their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José BerrÃos and Chris Bassitt all underneath contract for 2025. Bowden Francis appears to have earned a rotation gig together with his robust second half in 2024. Candidates for the fifth spot embody Yariel RodrÃguez and Jake Bloss, however RodrÃguez additionally has loads of reduction expertise and could possibly be within the bullpen. Bloss nonetheless has choices and restricted expertise, not having thrown a lot within the majors nor the minors.
Including a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would clearly strengthen the group. Burnes has been probably the greatest pitchers in baseball over the previous 5 years, although he hasn’t been fairly as dominant over the previous two. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run common, 33.4% strikeout charge, 6.4% stroll charge and 47.6% floor ball charge. Within the two most up-to-date seasons, it’s been a 3.15 ERA, together with his strikeout charge falling to 24.3%.
That’s a little bit of a priority however Burnes remains to be arguably the highest pitcher obtainable in free company this offseason. MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, with Snell at $160MM over 5 and Fried at $156MM over six.
There are numerous methods it might play out but it surely appears the Jays are setting their sights excessive after lacking out on Ohtani final winter after which having a disappointing season in 2024. It’s additionally been instructed that the Jays could possibly be fairly aggressive this offseason since there are just a few potential pivot factors arising. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all slated free of charge company for 2025, whereas workforce president Mark Shapiro and supervisor John Schneider are every going into the ultimate years of their respective offers as effectively. Basic supervisor Ross Atkins is underneath contract by way of 2026 although it’s been instructed that he could also be underneath strain to ship within the upcoming season as a way to stick round.
The Jays had an Opening Day payroll of $225MM final 12 months, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with RosterResource presently projecting them for $189MM in 2025. Shapiro had beforehand mentioned he didn’t anticipate the membership’s payroll to considerably enhance or lower relative to 2024, so the Jays might have one thing within the neighborhood of $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.
Some reporting, together with from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, has pointed to possession maybe having a Soto and non-Soto funds. The membership was apparently keen to go to better monetary extremes to signal Ohtani final winter however didn’t find yourself redistributing that cash to different gamers after he signed with the Dodgers. Equally, the payroll ceiling could possibly be moved as much as accommodate a Soto deal however not in any other case.
No matter how a lot cash they find yourself spending this winter, draft choose forfeiture can be one other value the membership should contemplate. Every of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander rejected a qualifying supply, as did different potential targets like Hernández or Willy Adames. Snell wasn’t eligible to obtain a QO this offseason as a result of he already rejected one a 12 months in the past.
The Jays are believed to have simply snuck underneath the aggressive stability tax in 2024 by buying and selling away some veterans on the deadline, which impacts their penalties for signing a participant who rejected a qualifying supply. A tax-paying membership has to forfeit $1MM of worldwide bonus pool house in addition to its second- and fifth-highest choose within the subsequent draft. If the Jays did certainly go underneath the CBT line in 2024, these penalties will as an alternative be $500K of pool house and simply the second-best draft choose. Lately, the Jays have been keen to signal gamers who rejected qualifying affords, doing so with each Springer and Bassitt.
