Like many different nerds, I’ve devoted quite a lot of time to slicing and dicing Baseball Savant’s new bat monitoring knowledge over the previous couple of weeks. And like many different nerds, I’m not totally certain how we’ll find yourself utilizing this wealth of recent data. Extra time, extra knowledge, and extra mind energy is required to wring out no matter sweeping new truths it might maintain. I’m going to put in writing about bat monitoring knowledge in a extra targeted manner subsequent week. There are a pair issues I believe are actually fascinating; not essentially new data, however ways in which bat monitoring knowledge can provide us onerous numbers for issues that we’ve already realized. On this article, I’ll be a bit extra scattershot. I’d similar to to take you thru how I’ve processed all the data that has come out over the previous couple of weeks.
First off, bat monitoring will give us new stats that stabilize extra rapidly than current ones, as that’s how granular metrics that separate underlying abilities from outcomes are inclined to work. In smaller samples, exit velocity turned out to be a greater predictor of total batting efficiency than wRC+ or wOBA. Now now we have swing pace, which in smaller samples seems to be a greater predictor of exit velocity. To wit, I pulled knowledge from the primary week of bat monitoring, April 3 to April 9, and in contrast it to every participant’s total numbers this season. I eradicated any participant with fewer than 5 plate appearances in the course of the first week or fewer than 100 PA throughout your complete season, which left me with a pattern of 295 gamers. It was no contest. Full-season exit velocity had a a lot stronger correlation to first-week swing pace (R = .60) than it did to first-week exit velocity (R = .40). It additionally predicted full-season hard-hit charge higher than first-week hard-hit charge (R = .66 for swing pace, in comparison with R = .46 for hard-hit charge). If, after the primary week, you need to know who’s going to hit the ball onerous for the remainder of the season, don’t take a look at exit velocity. Take a look at swing pace:
That stated, I’m not optimistic that this explicit manner of taking a look at bat monitoring knowledge will assist anybody. We’re most likely breaking issues down too finely right here. In any case, swing pace doesn’t have that robust a correlation to total success on the plate, a lot decrease than exit velocity. If we return to our first-week stats, swing pace has a barely decrease correlation (R = .19) to full-season wOBA than exit velocity or hard-hit charge (R = .21 for each). It could actually inform us sooner how onerous a participant is able to hitting the ball, however it’s not any faster at telling us how effectively they’ll hit.
Second, I’ve heard good individuals say that this knowledge may forestall accidents. If fatigue, tightness, or tenderness is retaining you from swinging as onerous as you usually would, a watchful analyst may spot it within the numbers and prescribe relaxation earlier than you harm your self. Whereas this makes a certain quantity of sense, I’m skeptical for now. Folks have been attempting to do the identical factor with pitchers for years, monitoring stride size, extension, launch level, velocity, spin charge, and break for indications of fatigue or compensation. To my information, nobody has cracked that code but. For some fast anecdotal analysis, I checked two outstanding gamers with latest accidents: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Steven Kwan. Not that this implies something, particularly with two decrease physique accidents, however each Acuña and Kwan had been truly swinging barely more durable in opposition to four-seamers within the week earlier than they received injured than they’d been earlier within the season.
Up to now, my greatest takeaway is an apparent one: Bat monitoring could be very difficult. There are such a lot of components that have an effect on swing pace and size, and when you’re attempting to study something, you might want to choose your variables very, very fastidiously to be sure to’re evaluating apples to apples. If you wish to analyze swing pace, you might want to just remember to’re accounting for pitch sort. As Ben Clemens has mentioned, quicker pitches elicit slower swings. In fact, swing pace can be correlated with swing size, and swing size is correlated with location, and site is correlated with pitch sort, and now we’re again the place we began. For the reason that candy spot of the bat typically begins out someplace above and behind the batter’s again shoulder, it has to journey a larger distance to achieve a slider low and away than a fastball over the center. Should you’re swinging at an inside pitch, you’re extra more likely to meet the ball out in entrance, which suggests an extended swing. So a participant who chases too many breaking balls is more likely to get dinged for an extended swing, as is a right-handed Astro who makes a residing pulling balls into the Crawford Bins. A type of is a foul factor, and a kind of is a part of the explanation that Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are perennial All-Stars.
Right here’s an instance of the wrestle to discover a consultant pattern. Whereas smarter individuals had been determining the issues I simply advised you, I used to be questioning concerning the power of the connection between swing size and the peak of the batter. In any case, there’s a motive we anticipate greater gamers with longer levers to hit for extra energy. Should you look at Baseball Savant’s essential bat monitoring leaderboard, you’ll see that Oneil Cruz has one of many longer swings within the recreation, which isn’t shocking since he’s one of many longer individuals within the recreation. Nonetheless, when you drill right down to get a extra consultant pattern, issues change.
Let’s say you look solely at aggressive swings on middle-middle fastballs that resulted in balls hit straightaway. We’ve minimize our pattern manner down, however we’re doing our greatest to manage for the kind, pace, and site of the pitch, in addition to the depth of contact. If we concentrate on these pitches, it seems that when he’s not flailing at breaking balls, Cruz has a surprisingly brief swing, beneath the massive league common on this explicit break up. Nonetheless, this is probably not the proper manner to have a look at issues. Perhaps Cruz’s numbers look too rosy as soon as we’ve thrown out his many, many whiffs. Perhaps we must always solely be taking a look at whiffs. In any case, if we simply take a look at whiffs, we don’t have to fret about accounting for depth of contact, as a result of there isn’t any contact. That’s an enormous variable eradicated. Once I seemed simply at whiffs on middle-middle fastballs, Cruz’s swing size was not beneath common, though it was nonetheless comparatively brief for such a tall participant.
Regardless of how I sliced it, I tended to seek out that top and swing size had a correlation coefficient between .24 and .35. Nonetheless, as with so lots of my deep dives into bat monitoring knowledge, I’m not utterly certain methods to make all the components mix right into a cohesive entire. On this instance, it made quite a lot of sense to look solely at whiffs, however on the similar time, it appeared ludicrous to guage a participant’s swing pace, which reveals how a lot harm they’ll do on contact, by throwing out all of the swings the place they really made contact!
I believe that bat monitoring will likely be utilized in one explicit manner in a short time. We’ve all learn articles about groups telling their pitchers to belief a sure pitch as a result of it’s nastier than they understand. They’ll now be capable to level to a particular quantity. Let’s say you’re the Rays and also you need Garrett Cleavinger to throw his four-seamer extra typically. He could be extra doubtless to purchase in when you inform him that batters are swinging three ticks softer in opposition to it than they’re in opposition to his cutter and his sinker. Whiffs are nice, however realizing that batters can’t even get a great swing off in opposition to a pitch could be simply as robust a motivator.
As I stated on the high, these are simply my first takeaways as I type by the info and course of what smarter baseball analysts have written on the subject. I’ll be again with extra subsequent week, and within the meantime, I’ll hold digging.
