Mazzulla-ball goes deeper than you realize

You’ve seen this film so many occasions during the last couple of seasons, nevertheless it by no means ceases to fulfill.

The opposing offense, Cleveland this time, runs a play hoping to unencumber a curler or shooter, however nothing materializes as Boston defends it completely. The Celtics talk on switches and stick to the screeners, and Sam Hauser holds up towards Darius Garland’s probing dribbles. The ball ends in Donovan Mitchell’s palms, and with time operating out, he’s pressured to sidestep previous an improvised Jarett Allen choose and launch a no-hope grenade:

Clank. It’s clearly a wonderful defensive possession, each individually and collectively. However zoom out, and it additionally hides a key a part of what makes the Celtics’ protection so good: they pressure opponents into the worst sorts of basketball performs.

Synergy Sports activities categorizes how groups use possessions into completely different buckets: cuts, hand-offs, isolations, off-ball screens, pick-and-roll ballhandler and curler actions, post-ups, spot-ups, and transition performs. They then observe how usually (and the way effectively) groups finish a possession utilizing these actions.

For instance, if a playtype is labeled P&R Handler, which means the sequence ended with an motion from the ballhandler within the pick-and-roll, like a turnover or shot try. It’s not complete — particularly right now, many of those actions are mixed, so the info undercounts issues like pick-and-roll that provoke so many possessions — nevertheless it’s nonetheless a strong directional view of how groups method offense.

Right here’s the breakdown of leaguewide offensive actions, the related factors per possession (PPP), and the proportion of whole possessions used on this method, as of 12/6/24:

Observe that the full time doesn’t add as much as 100%; I’ve excluded offensive rebounds and Synergy’s catch-all miscellaneous class, since I’m largely concerned about first-shot makes an attempt, and the miscellaneous class defies simple description. Every is ~5% of possessions.

You possibly can see above that performs ending in cuts are by far probably the most environment friendly shot within the NBA, which is smart. Performs ending in a lower virtually at all times result in open layups or dunks, as a result of gamers don’t go to a cutter until they’re open.

What is likely to be extra shocking to some is what’s on the backside of the record. Would you have got guessed that P&R ballhandler pictures are the least environment friendly offensive motion?

This isn’t a one-year blip, both; it holds for previous seasons. Choose-and-rolls aren’t actually designed to get the ballhandler a shot. It’s nice if they will get an open layup or three-pointer, however extra usually, the protection will crowd the motion, opening up a shot for another person. Many pick-and-roll ballhandlers take pictures after the designed offense has failed or late within the shot clock as an improvised try to create some area, like within the Mitchell clip above. Relatedly, they have an inclination to create self-generated soar pictures, that are usually low-efficiency pictures.

Isolations price poorly for comparable causes. Motion is the important thing to creating good offense, however isolations usually contain minimal involvement or motion by the gamers with out the ball. That’s why, significantly within the common season, they’re usually a weapon of final resort. Can’t generate an open shot for somebody by way of scripted offense? Give it to your greatest man and hope he could make magic occur. Typically (usually memorably), it really works; extra usually, it doesn’t, killing possessions with quiet rim-outs.

(Playoff basketball results in some completely different outcomes, in fact; groups are closely centered on optimizing recreation plans for particular opponents, which means playtype frequency and efficacy can trip a curler coaster between collection relying on who’s taking part in and the way they carry out in a scant handful of video games.)

Take into consideration what number of groups attempt to assault Sam Hauser in isolation and remorse it afterward! Boston is meticulously coached and overflowing with clever, gifted defenders. We all know this on an implicit degree, however seeing it explicitly laid out is enjoyable. For those who’re designing the best regular-season protection, you’d need to decrease cuts and maximize what number of possessions finish with an isolation or shot from a pick-and-roll ballhandler.

Guess what? Unsurprisingly, that’s precisely what Joe Mazzulla’s groups have achieved:

As you’ll be able to see above, the Celtics have allowed only a few cuts within the final three years whereas forcing groups into the worst offensive actions greater than virtually anybody within the league.

That is by design, a product of each the Celtics’ defensive ideas and their overflowing expertise. No one is extra analytically inclined than Mazzulla; he is aware of precisely what he’s doing, and his imaginative and prescient is made manifest by the roster. Having gamers keep dwelling on their marks with out overhelping eliminates a whole lot of the appears to be like opposing offenses need to get, flattening the offense till there’s nothing left however for the ballhandler to toss up a Glory Be.

After all, there are exceptions. For instance, Boston is definitely one of many league leaders in offensive isolations — they’ve run the second-most within the league this season, behind solely James Harden and the Clippers. However an isolation for Boston appears to be like a complete lot completely different than most groups, due to the plethora of capturing up and down the roster. All that spacing, and the open lanes to the rim it gives, signifies that a Boston isolation is sort of environment friendly — 1.08 factors per possession leads the league by a mile (the Dallas Mavericks, due to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, are the one different workforce who crack 1.00 PPP).

However general, it’s good to direct groups to the least environment friendly playtypes. No one has achieved this extra persistently than the Joe Mazzulla Boston Celtics.

[If you’re interested in this subject matter, I did a deeper dive on the offensive frequency and points per possession for every NBA team to prove that all NBA teams don’t play the same way. It even has a couple of interactive charts, so check that out if you’re so inclined!]