I feel quite a lot of us overestimate the importance of geography when predicting the place free brokers will signal. In Max Kepler’s case, nonetheless, all of us might need underestimated the function geography would play in his resolution. Maybe it was inevitable that the best German-born participant in MLB historical past would head to the state with the best German inhabitants within the nation. Lo and behold, on December 19, the all-time chief in runs, residence runs, RBI, and WAR amongst Deutschland natives agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
But, other than serving to the Phillies pander to their followers in Germantown, it’s a little bit troublesome to see how Kepler matches this workforce. Getting into the offseason, many anticipated Philadelphia would pursue a right-handed batter to play left discipline who may break up taking part in time with Brandon Marsh. As an alternative, they signed Kepler, who bats lefty and hasn’t performed left discipline since his days at Double-A in 2015. What’s extra, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made it clear the Phillies plan to make use of Kepler as an on a regular basis participant, although accidents have stored him from taking part in greater than 130 video games in a full season since 2019.
Kepler’s restricted expertise in left discipline is the least regarding facet of all this. Whether or not you have a look at OAA, FRV, DRS, or Baseball Prospectus’s DRP, Kepler has by no means been a below-average outfield defender in any season of his profession. His robust observe report without any consideration fielder, and his previous expertise in heart, ought to assist him alter to left. Moreover, Kepler may profit from taking part in a place the place throwing isn’t fairly as vital. Though his arm energy constantly ranks above the league common, he has been value -3 throwing runs in his profession, based on Baseball Savant.
Even when it received’t be a significant adjustment, it’s not nothing for the Phillies to ask Kepler to re-learn a place after virtually 10 years away. It makes me consider the film line I quote extra typically than every other. In Moneyball, when Billy Beane tries to persuade catcher Scott Hatteberg that he can play first base, Beane asks Ron Washington to inform Hatteberg that’s it not that onerous. “It’s extremely laborious,” Washington replies.
Shifting from proper to left discipline is doable for {most professional} baseball gamers. It’s so doable that quite a lot of them make it look easy. However in fact, it’s not. Kepler should alter to the methods the ball comes off the bat, the methods it bounces off the wall, and the methods he’ll have to show to make all his obligatory throws. He’ll even have to try this whereas attempting to not re-aggravate the knee and hip points which have bothered him the final two years. Dombrowski says Kepler thinks it will likely be “a simple adjustment.” Maybe he’s proper. Maybe his pure skills will counterbalance his lack of expertise. Nonetheless, it’s one small motive why Kepler isn’t an ideal match for this roster.
In the end, Kepler will most likely deal with left discipline simply tremendous. The larger query is that if he’ll be capable to deal with left-handed pitching. His profession splits are so poor as to make you scratch your head and surprise how the Twins may have probably watched him play for a decade and by no means platooned him. Greater than 1 / 4 (25.4%) of his profession plate appearances have come towards southpaws; since Kepler’s debut season in 2015, the common lefty batter has taken solely 18.5% of his hacks with out the platoon benefit. This may be comprehensible if Kepler had been higher than common towards lefties, besides, in fact, he’s not. When going through righties, Kepler has a profession 111 wRC+. In opposition to southpaws, that quantity falls to 78. Over the previous 10 years, he’s considered one of 100 gamers to take at the least 1,000 plate appearances towards left-handed pitchers. He ranks among the many backside three in all three triple-slash classes. His wRC+ ranks second to final – lower than half a proportion level higher than former Phillie Freddy Galvis.
That’s not excellent for the Phillies, who have already got two key gamers they don’t belief towards left-handed pitching: Marsh and Bryson Stott. Neither was efficient towards lefties in 2024, and there isn’t a lot motive to hope for enchancment; ZiPS tasks every of them for a .675 OPS towards southpaws in 2025. Furthermore, Philadelphia’s two finest hitters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, are additionally lefty bats. You’d assume this workforce could be on the lookout for a right-handed hitter to steadiness issues out. As an alternative, they quintupled down with Kepler.
Having stated that, I concede there may be a technique behind Dombrowski’s insanity. Regardless of a lineup that skewed left-handed, the Phillies ranked third within the majors with a 118 wRC+ towards left-handed pitchers in 2024. In distinction, their 104 wRC+ towards right-handed pitchers ranked thirteenth. Anticipated wOBA paints the same image; the Phillies had the third-best offense towards lefties and solely the Twelfth-best lineup towards righties. That’s largely as a result of all 4 of Philadelphia’s most vital righty batters – Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto – had noticeable platoon splits in 2024. With that in thoughts, including a bat like Kepler makes much more sense. It’s nonetheless truthful to fret that this lineup is simply too lopsided. A dominant left-hander may are available in and shut them down. But, over the course of an extended season, Kepler may truly convey extra steadiness, not much less, to the Phillies offense.
It’s additionally value mentioning that Kepler has stored his head above water towards lefties over the previous few years. He has a 102 wRC+ throughout 298 plate appearances towards same-handed pitchers from 2022-24. His .310 xwOBA in that point is correct consistent with his .312 wOBA. In fact, 298 PA will not be quite a lot of knowledge to work with. It’s such a small pattern that in case you return yet one more yr and have a look at his numbers towards lefties from 2021-24, his wRC+ drops to 85. Thus, we’re confronted with the age-old query that continues to flummox baseball prognosticators: How closely ought to we weigh newer efficiency in a smaller pattern measurement in comparison with much less current efficiency in a bigger pattern measurement? Colour me skeptical that Kepler has made his platoon woes disappear. The Phillies, nonetheless, appear to assume he can maintain his personal irrespective of who’s on the mound.
To that time, the Phillies additionally appear to assume that Kepler could be extra productive total in 2025 than he was final yr. Talking to the media after signing Kepler, Dombrowski emphasised that the veteran outfielder was coming off a down yr. But, it’s debatable how true that actually is. Kepler’s 94 wRC+ in 2024 was a step down from his profession 102 wRC+ and a giant step down from his 123 wRC+ in 2023. Nevertheless, his 97 wRC+ in 2021 and 94 wRC+ in 2022 recommend that his true expertise stage at this level in his profession is nearer to what we noticed in his mediocre 2024 season than in his wonderful 2023 marketing campaign. Kepler’s defensive numbers had been additionally down in 2024, however that’s a development that started the yr earlier than. You could possibly name that two defensive down years in a row, or you can admit that it’s most likely an age-related decline.
Steamer envisions a slight uptick in Kepler’s offensive efficiency in 2025, projecting a 101 wRC+. Curiously, Steamer foresees higher total numbers for Kepler regardless of a big lower in his BABIP. The system appears to acknowledge that his stroll charge and energy numbers had been unusually low in 2024 and expects some constructive regression in each areas. Sadly, Steamer additionally believes within the development of his declining defensive talents. Thus, Kepler’s 1.1 WAR projection, utilizing the taking part in time estimates from our Depth Charts, represents a step again from his manufacturing this previous yr. He completed with 1.0 WAR in 2024, however that was in 105 fewer plate appearances than our Depth Charts have him taking in 2025. A one-win function participant continues to be invaluable, and including such a participant on a one-year, $10 million contract is a wonderfully cheap funding. Nonetheless, the purpose stands that Kepler simply isn’t an important match for the on a regular basis function the Phillies are asking him to play.
Lastly, there’s the query of whether or not or not Kepler’s physique may even deal with taking part in day by day. He has hung out on the injured record in every of the previous 5 seasons. He hasn’t certified for the batting title since 2019. Even in his youthful years, when he had higher luck avoiding the IL, he handled at the least one harm difficulty or one other annually. The “accidents” part on his Baseball Prospectus participant web page has at the least one entry for each season courting again to 2014.
In 2024, Kepler missed time early within the yr with a proper knee contusion earlier than touchdown on the IL once more in September with patellar tendinitis in his left knee. He has beforehand handled patellar tendinitis in his proper knee, too. On prime of that, his hip started to trouble him whereas he was attempting to return from the left knee harm, and that’s what finally prevented him from coming again earlier than the season was up. As if that weren’t sufficient, Kepler was additionally taking part in via a core harm that required offseason surgical procedure. The Phillies appear to assume he’ll be again at 100% by the spring, however his well being is all the time going to be a priority.
For a Phillies workforce that might use extra stability within the outfield, Kepler’s harm historical past is but one more reason to query this transfer. Phillies outfielders ranked 18th in wRC+ and nineteenth in WAR this previous season. Marsh was an above-average participant towards right-handed pitching however a non-factor towards lefties. Johan Rojas was an elite defender and baserunner, however his 68 wRC+ ranked among the many backside 5 within the sport (min. 350 PA). Castellanos was the one a kind of three who truly took the sphere day by day, however the numbers recommend he’s the final one who ought to have been taking part in that always. He completed the yr dangerously near alternative stage (0.4 WAR); he merely wasn’t productive sufficient on the plate (105 wRC+) for a participant who supplied nothing in every other facet of the sport. Kepler is an efficient participant, however he isn’t an excellent reply to any of the questions raised by Marsh, Rojas, and Castellanos. His prolonged harm historical past solely brings one other unknown variable into the equation.
Kepler signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old worldwide free agent. After 16 seasons with the group – virtually half of his life – he departs the one MLB workforce he’s ever recognized. He’s considered one of 133 gamers who’ve performed in every of the previous 10 seasons. He’s considered one of solely 10 who performed all 10 seasons for a similar workforce. Throughout these 10 seasons, he was a member of three AL Central-winning golf equipment and 4 playoff runs. He performed greater than 1,000 video games. Over the previous 30 years, solely 4 gamers have suited up for the Twins extra typically: Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. All 4 are members of the Twins Corridor of Fame. Kepler by no means discovered himself within the highlight as a lot as any of these names. He was by no means the very best participant on the workforce. He was by no means an MVP, an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glover, or a batting champion. But, after so a few years, he leaves behind his personal little legacy in Minnesota.
Now, Kepler heads to Philadelphia. He’s not the proper match for his new workforce, however the Phillies will hope his total expertise outweighs his awkward match. Even in 2024, the worst season of his profession, Kepler was a win above alternative stage. If he could be that sort of contributor for the Phillies, the sort that Whit Merrifield and Austin Hays couldn’t be, possibly the whole lot else will fall into place.
