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How the Marlins Should Be Buying Prospects

January 17, 2025
in Baseball
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The Marlins have added exactly 4 gamers to a 40-man roster that misplaced 100 video games final season. These 4 new acquisitions — infielder Eric Wagaman, catcher Liam Hicks, infielder Max Acosta and first baseman Matt Mervis — have boosted their at the moment NL-low payroll by … nicely, zero, mainly. Wagaman signed a break up large league deal as a free agent. Hicks was a Rule 5 choose. Acosta came visiting within the Jake Burger commerce. Mervis was swapped for Vidal Brujan after the latter was designated for project in Miami.

The one staff at the moment projected for a decrease payroll than the Marlins is the Athletics, and the A’s have been energetic sufficient this winter that it nonetheless appears possible they’re going to make an addition or two and leapfrog over the Fish. (A’s GM David Forst has already gone on file to say he is hopeful of one other addition or two.)

Proper now, the Marlins undertaking for a $67MM payroll, per RosterResource. Their projected CBT quantity is $84MM. Each numbers are due largely to the $12MM owed to the since-released Avisail Garcia, whose four-year contract concludes in 2025.

Even by the Marlins’ requirements, the 2025 payroll is at the moment dipping to a brand new low when in comparison with latest seasons. Miami has trotted out payrolls of $84MM, $110MM and $106MM, respectively over the previous three seasons. That is not a lot, in fact, however these numbers are lightyears larger than the present projection. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has recommended that the Marlins, just like the A’s, might must spend some further funds to retain their revenue-sharing standing. They have not been as stingy because the A’s in latest seasons, however the Fish actually aren’t a paragon of aggressive roster maneuvering. Miami’s latest offseason exercise (or lack thereof) does not bode nicely for subsequent additions. Their lone free agent signing final offseason was Tim Anderson on a one-year, $5MM deal.

Miami did spend a mixed $25MM on Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto the prior season, although that was underneath a special entrance workplace regime. Second-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made it abundantly clear — by way of actions fairly than phrases — that he had zero religion within the roster he inherited returning to rivalry after a shock postseason berth in 2023.

The Fish waited barely greater than a month into the 2024 season earlier than buying and selling Luis Arraez to the Padres, and when the deadline rolled round they traded away a staggering 9 extra gamers who’d opened the season on the roster. In a span of simply three months, Bendix traded almost 40% of his Opening Day roster (together with JT Chargois and Huascar Brazoban, who have been solely off the Opening Day roster as a result of damage and visa points, respectively.) Had Jesus Luzardo not been injured, Miami would possible have traded 11 of 26 gamers from the Opening Day membership.

Given these developments, there’s little motive to assume the Marlins will spend any significant cash on the upcoming participant payroll. And whereas the notion of “shopping for” prospects is usually recommended far, way over it’s really put into follow — a lot in order that I am usually reluctant to dedicate a lot time excited about the idea in any respect. Nevertheless, given not solely the precise place by which the Marlins discover themselves however the broader context of this particular person offseason, it feels just like the Marlins are lacking a chance if they don’t seem to be extra significantly making an attempt to drive this sort of transaction.

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