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With the first overall pick, give me Jayson Tatum

February 20, 2025
in Basketball
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The NBA is getting into a brand new era. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry have all been family names for during the last ten years, even for individuals who don’t comply with the league. Regardless of nonetheless being thought of a few of the finest gamers within the league, their careers appear to be winding down and the top virtually in sight.

Guys like Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden, who’ve all been thought of stars on this period, have began to maneuver into lesser roles, too — nonetheless taking part in nicely, however not on the top-of-the-class ranges we as soon as knew them for. Celtics followers like myself are actually dreading it, however Al Horford, at present the fourth oldest energetic participant at 38 years previous, may solely have a pair extra years within the tank himself.

The torch will likely be handed quickly sufficient, and there’s no query about whose fingers it is going to find yourself in. The brand new era of NBA basketball will likely be outlined by guys like Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama, and Boston’s very personal, Jayson Tatum.

74th NBA All-Star Game

Photograph by Tom OConnor/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

Every of them is dominant in their very own proper. Every of them is the man on their respective crew. Every of them has a number of elite abilities that may lead a crew to the promised land. If I needed to choose certainly one of these gamers to start out a franchise with, the selection actually wouldn’t be simple. For me, the choice would come all the way down to choosing the man who’s best to construct round.

Proper now, that man is Jayson Tatum.

Don’t get me flawed. As a lot of a homer as I could also be, I received’t even entertain strategies that there’s at present a greater basketball participant on the earth than Nikola Jokic. In truth, I wouldn’t even say that Tatum is the second-best participant on the earth, with Giannis being forward of him as nicely. Personally, I at present have JT because the third-best, and I don’t suppose it’s inconceivable to have Shai or Luka above him both.

The query isn’t about who’s at present one of the best, although. That is about figuring out which participant offers you one of the best probability to construct a championship caliber crew. Who makes it simpler so that you can assemble the remainder of your roster to ensure success? Who can maintain that window open for the longest?

To date, solely three of them have confirmed their skill to win their crew a hoop. Solely certainly one of them has led his crew to a number of Finals appearances. That very same participant can be the one one to by no means have had a shedding season, and the one one to by no means miss the playoffs in his profession.

I’ll offer you one wild guess who that participant is.

Now, you might be questioning what my standards is for figuring out who “the best to construct round” is. To me, it’s fairly easy; it comes all the way down to the participant who’s essentially the most versatile. Can they rating at an elite degree? Can they defend at an elite degree? Can they play one by 5 on each ends of the ball? Do they elevate and empower their teammates? Are they persistently obtainable? Jayson Tatum would be the solely participant within the league who the reply is definitively and emphatically sure for every of those questions.

Sufficient speak from me. Let the numbers converse for themselves.

Since 1974, there are solely two gamers who’ve ever led all gamers on each groups in factors, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks in a single playoff collection. LeBron did it in 2016 within the prime of his profession at 31 years previous. He and the Cleveland Cavaliers confronted off towards the 73-9 Golden State Warriors within the Finals, finally profitable the championship. The second participant is none aside from JT, who did it simply this previous yr on the age of 26. Tatum led the Celtics previous the Cavaliers within the Japanese Convention semifinals, beating them in simply 5 video games.

Boston Celtics v Cleveland Cavaliers - Game Four

Photograph by Nick Cammett/Getty Photographs

That wasn’t the one legendary feat Jayson achieved in final yr’s playoffs, although. He additionally turned simply the sixth participant to guide his crew in factors, rebounds, and assists throughout the whole lot of a championship run. The one different gamers to take action are LeBron, Jokic, Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Larry Chicken, all Corridor-of-Famers (or future HOF in Jokic’s case) all gamers who outlined their generations, and all gamers who’re thought of to be a few of the finest the sport of basketball has ever seen.

JT has already joined this elite firm, and he hasn’t even entered the prime of his profession but. [Insert obligatory “He’s only 19!” joke.] What’s extra is he’s exhibiting off simply how well-rounded and impactful his sport is. Over the previous few years, many individuals have been utilizing the general success and expertise degree of the Celtics as a method to discredit Jayson. It appears they’ve by no means stopped to consider how he’s one of the best participant on one of the best crew, and continues to be main all of that expertise within the main statistical classes. Sounds extra like an accomplishment than an indictment.

Even this yr, Large Deuce is main the Celtics in factors, rebounds, assists, and steals. Give credit score the place it’s due. Nonetheless, he isn’t the one one stuffing the stat sheet. Jokic is doing the identical for the Denver Nuggets, and previous to his departure from the Dallas Mavericks, Luka was as nicely, although not anymore now that he’s been traded to Los Angeles. That’s the complete listing; no different gamers qualify.

We will take Tatum’s sport degree by degree, too.

If you need scoring, he can provide you that. He’s the one participant in Boston Celtics historical past to have averaged 30+ factors over the course of a season. He additionally holds the franchise document for many profession playoff three-pointers made (3PM), and is second for whole franchise 3PM, trailing solely Paul Pierce. His scoring feats transcend the Celtics, too, with JT holding the document for many factors in an All-Star Sport, most factors in a Sport 7, essentially the most playoff factors scored earlier than the age of 26, and being solely the seventh participant to achieve 13,000 profession factors earlier than turning 27 years previous.

With the flexibility to place up factors like that, you may wager that Tatum sees loads of double groups. He’s taken that as a problem, elevating his playmaking skills and getting his teammates concerned. My former colleague, Jack Simone at Hardwood Houdini, lately made a fantastic video breakdown to focus on this.

JT has steadily been growing his help numbers, taking a step up each single yr since coming into the league. In his rookie yr, Jayson averaged 1.6 assists per sport alongside (APG) with 1.4 turnovers per sport (TOPG). This yr, he’s averaging 5.6 APG with 2.8 TOPG, a 2:1 help ratio in comparison with the just about 1:1 ratio from his rookie yr.

Whereas the typical could not precisely be eye-popping, we will take a look at Jayson’s secondary assists (passes to the participant who recorded the help) and potential assists (passes to a participant who missed the shot) for extra context. Throughout the league, JT ranks eleventh in secondary assists, averaging 1.1 per sport, simply 0.3 behind Devin Booker who leads the league. By way of potential assists, he’s averaging 11.4 per sport. Opposing groups need the ball out of Tatum’s fingers as a lot as doable, however he’s centered on his playmaking to make them pay, elevating his teammates within the course of.

JT can really play any place on the court docket — driving and passing like a guard, scoring like a wing, rebounding and posting up like an enormous. What makes him so particular, although, is that it applies to each ends of the ground. In keeping with NBA monitoring knowledge, he spends 40.6% of his time matched up with forwards, 43.6% with guards, and 15.8% with facilities. Right here’s how his defensive stats maintain up towards the league averages by place:

Tatum Opponent FG% v. League Avg

–

Opp. Guard FG%

Opp. Ahead FG%

Opp. Middle FG%

Complete Opp. FG%

–

Opp. Guard FG%

Opp. Ahead FG%

Opp. Middle FG%

Complete Opp. FG%

League Common

44.2

46.4

54.1

46.6

J. Tatum

43.9

43

56.3

45.1

Distinction (+/-)

-0.3

-3.4

2.2

-1.5

Desk evaluating the league common Subject Aim Share (FG%) from every place vs. the FG% Jayson Tatum holds every place to when he’s the first defender

One of many important causes JT excels at taking part in towards bigs is his skill to discourage entry passes and shot makes an attempt altogether, which doesn’t present up within the total FG%. He mucks up pick-and-rolls, making groups suppose twice about throwing lobs whereas Tatum is defending the curler. In virtually 115 minutes of matchup time, opposing facilities have solely tried 64 pictures on Jayson all season, good for simply 83 factors.

His measurement, energy, and athleticism make him a particularly versatile defender. Extra importantly, he persistently reveals up on the defensive finish, one thing that may’t be stated for each tremendous star.

Jayson Tatum’s protection is legit—notably as a #1 offensive choice

Glorious energy & Ok.B.I.F. (Maintain ball in entrance) skill. Tasked with guarding/switching from facilities to star guards. BOS’ scheme trusts him—providing VERY little assist. And he’s a beast on the D-glass. 2-way! pic.twitter.com/oL3u3MXwvR

— NBA College (@NBA_University) June 3, 2024

Ultimately, stats by no means inform the entire story, and issues like this are finally subjective. The superstars of the league maintain that title due to simply how a lot they excel in sure areas of the sport. JT is probably not the primary selection for every side, however he’s proper close to the highest in all of them, which is precisely why he’s been dubbed “The Anomaly.”

Past that, he carries himself with the utmost professionalism on and off the court docket, and has at all times adjusted his sport for the betterment of his crew. Qualities like that make him simple to construct a championship roster round, evidenced by the truth that he now has his first ring below his belt to go with his crew’s in depth playoff success.





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