The NCAA Midwest Area may quietly grow to be essentially the most compelling within the bracket. Headlined by No. 1 seed Houston Cougars, the area additionally options event mainstay Gonzaga and two of essentially the most threatening Mid-Majors in all the subject.
That’s to not point out No. 2 seed Tennessee, which enters the event coming off an look within the SEC Closing, or the Vols’ SEC cohort Texas, who’s hoping to advance from a First 4 Midwest matchup in opposition to Xavier.
Can Houston Make It Again To The NCAA Closing 4?
Houston has been one of many three finest packages of the last decade to date in school basketball, making a Closing 4 look in 2021. As well as, the Cougars completed within the high 3 in KenPom in every of the final 4 seasons. Sarcastically, all of Kelvin Sampson’s groups since that 2021 run have been stronger by the metrics. Nonetheless, they’ve fallen in need of a return to the largest stage within the sport.
Houston returned to the Elite 8 in 2022 earlier than dropping within the Candy 16 as a No. 1 seed in every of the final two seasons. Houston is once more a primary seed, however their path will not be straightforward. The workforce will almost certainly face a Gonzaga squad that’s at the moment as scary as any workforce within the nation, regardless of being tabbed a No. 8 seed. The Cougars are among the many strongest group of 1 seeds in current historical past, as all 4 rank among the many six finest groups in adjusted effectivity ranking since 2002.
Does Protection Win Championships?
The numbers say that is the strongest Houston workforce in a decade of NCAA school basketball. Houston is anchored by arguably the perfect protection within the nation, holding opponents to a nationwide low of 58.5 factors per recreation.
The Cougars have moreover posted their finest defensive effectivity scores of the Sampson period this season. Actually, they maintain opponents to each the fourth-lowest capturing proportion (38.3 p.c) and efficient subject purpose proportion (44.9 p.c). Can they escape as the highest workforce within the NCAA Midwest?
Gonzaga’s Metrics Dwarf Resume
It’s exhausting to say if Gonzaga is severely underseeded, given the very fact the workforce completed with eight defeats general. The Bulldogs’ 4 losses in WCC play have been essentially the most they’ve suffered within the Mark Few period. Moreover, Gonzaga ranks a trusty No. 8 general in NET, and No.10 in KenPom with a high 10 offense. On the flip facet, the Zags have a top-30 protection in adjusted effectivity. Total, Gonzaga has been enjoying just like the workforce they’re on paper extra not too long ago. Gonzaga gained the WCC event with a victory over a St. Mary’s workforce that is torched the convention all season.
A possible NCAA Midwest area second-round matchup between Houston and Gonzaga may have the standard and pleasure of a Closing 4 showdown. Given the best way each groups have been enjoying heading into March, it’ll be a battle. Traditionally, groups with related metrics have carried out effectively within the NCAA event. This possible matchup would possibly simply find yourself figuring out who will get the Midwest Area’s bid to San Antonio.
Reside Canines: Excessive Level And McNeese State
The NCAA Midwest Area options two of the livest underdogs within the bracket—No. 12 seed McNeese State and No. 13 seed Excessive Level. Underdogs, every pose a major upset risk of their Spherical of 64 matchups. Loads of individuals thought McNeese can be the darling No. 12 seed in final yr’s NCAA event earlier than its first-round loss to Gonzaga. This yr, McNeese has the advantage of expertise and the added magic of viral scholar supervisor Amir Khan.
However, Excessive Level has probably the most convincing instances for an upset in all the subject when it faces No. 4 seed Purdue. The Panthers are one of many nation’s elite offenses, rating No. 17 within the nation in scoring at 81.7 factors per recreation. Excessive Level has the fifth-best capturing proportion within the nation, capturing an astounding 49.3 p.c from the sector as a workforce. The Panthers are fifteenth within the nation in 2-point subject purpose proportion, whereas Purdue ranks 350th in defending the 2-pointer.
Tennessee’s Elite Protection Might Be The Key
If Houston doesn’t have the nation’s finest protection, you may positive make the case that No. 2 seed Tennessee does. The Vols definitely have school basketball’s finest on-ball defender in back-to-back SEC Defensive Participant of the Yr Zakai Zeigler. His backcourt mate Jahmai Mashack can be a top-five finest defender in all of faculty basketball. Collectively, they type a suffocating presence, even in opposition to the nation’s finest guards within the SEC.
Tennessee proved it will possibly win in maybe the hardest convention within the historical past of faculty basketball. It is proven so by defeating a traditionally dominant Auburn workforce to advance to the SEC Championship recreation. The Vols misplaced to Florida within the SEC Finals, however cut up the sequence within the common season with the top-seeded Gators. Tennessee earned extra victories over Alabama, Texas A&M and Missouri.
Did Texas Deserve A First 4 Spot?
All issues thought-about, Texas shouldn’t be within the NCAA event. With their resume, the Longhorns ought to have joined West Virginia and Indiana at dwelling. Though historical past has proven First 4 groups just like the 2011 VCU Rams and 2021 UCLA Bruins deserve a spot within the bracket. With the appropriate breaks and luck, we have seen fairly just a few upsets over time. Whereas Texas’ current play has been removed from inspiring, the Longhorns do have a conceivable path to an unlikely run given their draw.
The Longhorns open up with a good matchup within the play-in recreation in opposition to an Xavier workforce with strikingly related metrics. Although the Longhorns have a slight edge offensively, one can think about their robust schedule within the SEC will bode effectively for them in opposition to an A-10 at giant. Texas would then transfer on to a Spherical of 64 matchup in opposition to an Illinois workforce that suffered a 21-point loss to Wisconsin and a 43-point loss to Duke lower than a month in the past.
If the Longhorns managed to get by, they might doubtless meet No. 3 seed Kentucky within the NCAA Midwest Spherical of 32. That may really feel like the place the highway would finish for Texas if it even goes that far. Remember, the Longhorns beat Kentucky 82-78 at dwelling within the workforce’s solely assembly this season. Who is aware of the place issues may go from there. Crazier issues have occurred.
