Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Gets 500 Million Reasons to Change His Mind

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. broke off contract talks with the Blue Jays on February 17. It didn’t seem to be there was any animus between the 2 sides on the time, however the four-time All-Star didn’t wish to distract himself throughout his stroll yr by negotiating all season lengthy. The deadline was arbitrary, however nonetheless immovable. The Blue Jays examined Guerrero’s resolve with a renewed provide on Opening Day, however he held agency.

Then he modified his thoughts. I attempt to keep away from the impulse to inform baseball gamers what to do with their careers, however I’ll say this: $500 million is a extremely, actually good purpose to desert one’s earlier place.

Guerrero’s $500 million contract extension with the Blue Jays begins subsequent yr, runs for 14 years, and comprises a full no-trade clause however no opt-outs. The intention, then, is to maintain Guerrero in Toronto for the remainder of his profession.

By the termination of the contract in 2039, Guerrero will likely be 40 years previous, and nearly actually can have demolished each franchise report. It’s a reasonably younger staff, however Toronto has additionally had a behavior of hanging onto franchise icons for under a part of their careers; simply 12 gamers have appeared in 10 or extra seasons for the Blue Jays. Dave Stieb holds the report for many seasons with the Jays with 15; Guerrero can have 21 if he performs out his contract.

Along with his extension nonetheless a full season away, Guerrero is the lively Blue Jays chief in video games performed (829), hits (915), plate appearances (3,585), and residential runs (160). He’s greater than midway to the late Tony Fernandez’s membership report within the first two classes (1,450 video games, 1,583 hits), and Carlos Delgado’s report (6,018 PA) within the third. As for house runs, Vladito most likely will likely be midway to the membership report (336, additionally held by Delgado) by the tip of the month.

The Blue Jays at the moment have one retired quantity: 32, in honor of Roy Halladay. Guerrero’s contract is a down fee (and an enormous one, if we comply with the metaphor) on placing no. 27 up on the wall sometime as properly.

When it seemed like Vladito was going to take his free company case to market, I wrote concerning the paradox that made his worth so troublesome to pin down. On one hand, he’s 26 — and simply turned 26 — and a middle-of-the-order bat with MVP upside. On the opposite, regardless of his sturdiness (Guerrero’s missed simply 12 video games up to now 5 seasons), his relative lack of athleticism makes it troublesome to challenge the subsequent decade of his profession with a lot confidence. Most mid-20s free brokers who signal these super-long contracts — Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Corey Seager — did so with an eventual slide down the defensive spectrum priced into the equation.

For instance: Harper was a proper fielder when he signed his 13-year contract with the Phillies in 2019. In truth, he’d made 59 begins in heart area for the Nationals in his stroll yr. Accidents compelled Harper right into a full-time DH position for a couple of yr’s value of video games throughout 2022 and 2023. Now, at 32 and midway by the contract, Harper’s a full-time first baseman and has developed into a reasonably good defender there.

Guerrero was a full-time first baseman and DH, and never an excellent defender on the chilly nook, at 21. I believe that by the point this contract is over, Vladito would possibly nonetheless personal a primary baseman’s mitt, however he received’t know the place it’s on any given day on the ballpark.

In brief, I’ll repeat what I wrote two months in the past: Is Guerrero extra Juan Soto or extra Pete Alonso?

The Jays are betting the previous. This $500 million contract comprises no deferred cash — apparently a serious sticking level in earlier rounds of negotiation — and is due to this fact the second-richest contract in baseball historical past when it comes to real-world worth.

This can be a ludicrous sum of money. It dwarfs the petty low-nine-figure deal Jackson Merrill signed final week, among the many Nice Extension Craze of 2025.

Having already laid out the professionals and cons of Guerrero as a free agent, and having already learn Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS-informed tackle Guerrero’s worth, which ran per week later, I don’t wish to spend an excessive amount of time re-surveying a panorama that hasn’t modified in per week and a half of video games.

As an alternative, I wish to tie Guerrero’s extension again to those Merrill and Kristian Campbell signed final week. When a top-10 world prospect reaches the majors at an age when most individuals are taking part in Beerio Kart till 4 AM, the usual process is for the staff to lock him as much as a long-term contract that eats up a pair free agent years.

Why didn’t Vladito signal a contract like that? Nicely, if Vladimir Guerrero Sr. had been a cab driver or a fisherman, his son most likely would’ve been greatly surprised by the concept of constructing $60 million or $135 million within the first half of his profession. As an alternative, Guerrero père was himself a Corridor of Fame ballplayer, who made $125 million in wage — and that is in early 2000s cash — over a 16-year massive league profession. The Guerreros wouldn’t be awed by the monetary largesse that made Merrill a Padre for the subsequent decade and wish to keep in San Diego for all times.

Furthermore, Guerrero fils cashed in massive, and early, by taking part in the market straight. At 16, he signed with the Blue Jays for $3.9 million, the fourth-largest bonus in his class. He was within the majors inside 4 years, and by his age-23 season he was into arbitration, the place he made $70.8 million over his closing 4 years of staff management.

In brief, it is a man who can afford to remain on the roulette desk for an additional spin, slightly than cashing out and going house early. Most equivalently proficient gamers — few although they could be, there are sufficient to deduce a basic development — are content material to accept generational monetary consolation, slightly than sticking it out to chase each final greenback.

One facet impact of the extension development is the dilution of the free agent pool. Ideally, if the Blue Jays had $500 million to spend on a celebrity, and so they had issues about Guerrero’s athleticism or his groundball price or his consistency, they might search the free marketplace for one other hitter who may put up a 160 wRC+ or higher.

The factor is: The place are you going to search out one? Wanting on the different standout hitters from the 2019 rookie class, Yordan Alvarez and Fernando Tatis Jr. each signed massive pre-arbitration extensions. So did Ronald Acuña Jr., who would possibly in any other case be hitting the market round now.

Truly, let’s simply lay all of it on the market. Listed below are, let’s say, a lot of the lively place gamers and beginning pitchers who had between 5 and 6 years of service time on Opening Day. I drew an arbitrary line for high quality someplace between Lane Thomas and Harrison Bader. You’re welcome to quibble, however I hope we will all agree that if the Jays had let Guerrero stroll and provided, like, Brendan Rodgers instead, there would’ve been civil unrest all through Ontario.

We’ve obtained 24 gamers right here who can be first-time free brokers after this season based mostly on service time alone. Guerrero is the youngest participant on this group, however he’s not the most effective. If these 24 gamers had been in a draft for a possible franchise participant, there’s nearly no probability Guerrero would go within the prime three, and a non-zero probability he falls out of the highest 10.

Guerrero is ninth on this checklist in profession WAR; I believe this undersells the height worth of his bat fairly a bit (he was no. 1 in WAR final yr), however let’s go together with that as a baseline. Of the eight gamers forward of Guerrero in profession WAR, six are underneath staff management by at the least 2028. In different phrases: The cream of the 2026 free company class has already been skimmed off the highest.

Let’s put aside all that sentimental number-retiring stuff for a second, the place the child who was born in Montreal and signed with the Jays at 16 finally ends up spending his entire profession in Toronto and rewriting the report guide. That’s a terrific story, and a greater purpose to signal a participant than lots of people acknowledge, but it surely doesn’t present up within the standings.

As an alternative, let’s give attention to the proximate on-field challenge: Toronto wants any individual who can anchor the lineup for the subsequent 5 years and has cash to spend to accumulate one. Let’s say the Blue Jays determined Guerrero was not, within the phrases of the poet, that any individual. In every of the previous three offseasons, there was a generational irreplaceable hitter accessible in free company: Aaron Decide, then Shohei Ohtani, then Soto.

There isn’t actually a man like that this yr. What’s there may be Kyle Tucker, who’s superior, and I’d commerce Vladito straight as much as get him with out hesitation. However that’s it. There’s no backup plan. And whereas the Blue Jays have been in on quite a lot of top-tier free brokers within the 2020s, they’ve by no means landed the most important fish within the pond. Having lived by the Ohtani saga two offseasons in the past — perhaps probably the most excruciating free company near-miss in baseball historical past, all issues thought-about — you’d perceive the Blue Jays not desirous to take that danger once more.

So what are they left with? Nicely, an overpay, most likely, particularly as soon as you work within the final third or so of this contract. However perhaps not by as a lot as “second-biggest contract in baseball historical past” would have you ever imagine.

Let’s finish by going again to Dan’s article: If Guerrero places in one other season like final yr’s, even ZiPS — that cruel, pessimistic, mathematical curmudgeon — has a constructive outlook.

“With a repeat of his 2024 season,” Dan wrote. “ZiPS is much more assured in Guerrero’s future, including sufficient to get to the $400 million mark over 9 years, with the remainder of his profession after that time tacking on one other $100 million.”

Beneath these circumstances, ZiPS would challenge Guerrero to maintain posting wRC+ marks within the 140s and 150s by the tip of the last decade, and to hit .282/.363/.447 in 2034, his age-35 season. That will be an OPS+ of 126, which is best than what Alonso posted in both of the previous two seasons. Most hitters would kill for a decline part like that.

However most of all, that’s an issue for an additional day. The Blue Jays locked up their greatest participant for the remainder of his profession. That’s an enormous constructive, regardless of the phrases. They will determine the remaining later.