Where Do We Draw the Line Drive?

I nonetheless keep in mind the primary time I puzzled, What if the colours I see aren’t the identical ones that different individuals see? What if the colour I understand as purple seems the identical as what you understand as yellow? I used to be 10 years outdated, and I felt like a budding scientist or thinker, or maybe a poet. Whichever one, I used to be already getting ready my Nobel Prize acceptance speech.

I’ve since come to comprehend that my 10-year-old mind wasn’t asking something that each stoned school freshman hadn’t requested earlier than. I sounded much less like a Nobel Laureate and extra like John Kruk taking his function because the Phillies’ coloration commentator a bit too actually. That mentioned, the concept that totally different human beings understand colours in numerous methods isn’t simply pot-fueled postulation or Krukian knowledge – it’s the reality. It will have blown my 10-year-old thoughts to be taught the colours I see aren’t essentially the colours everybody else sees, and it’s not nearly rods, cones, and intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells. Generally, it’s a matter of language.

Check out the 4 swatches beneath. Take into consideration what colours they’re. And no, the solutions aren’t Steven Kwan’s whiff fee, arm energy, bat pace, and dash pace:

When it comes to lightness and saturation, the distinction between swatches A and B is roughly the identical because the distinction between swatches C and D. But, if I confirmed you the swatches separately and requested you to call every coloration, you’d in all probability give totally different solutions for A and B (purple and pink, respectively) and the identical reply for C and D: blue. It will be the identical if C and D had been two totally different tones of orange, yellow, inexperienced, or purple. English audio system consider “purple” and “pink” as distinct coloration classes in a extra vital approach than we do for shades of every other hue.

That’s not the case for all languages. In Russian, for example, the phrases “синий” (romanized as “siniy”) and “голубой” (romanized as “goluboy”) seek advice from darker and lighter blue. What is especially fascinating about that is that having two totally different phrases for darker and lighter blue has been proven to assist Russian audio system distinguish between the 2 shades extra rapidly and precisely than English audio system. So, some cognitive psychologists theorize that the languages we communicate don’t simply describe the fabric world. They affect the best way we understand it.

(A short apart: When the Royals drafted Victor Cole, the latest Russian-born participant to look within the main leagues, I’m wondering in the event that they knew that nobody else was higher suited to differentiate between the darkish and light-weight blues of their uniforms?)

As a monolingual English speaker, I can barely comprehend how somebody might see totally different shades of blue as separate colours – although I do the identical with purple and pink. It feels as unusual as calling sizzling pizza and chilly pizza two totally different meals or left socks and proper socks two totally different gadgets of clothes. But, somebody from Russia could be equally confused that I can’t simply distinguish between siniy and goluboy. It’s not about any intrinsic property of the colours. It’s all about language. Certainly, researchers have discovered related results in numerous areas past coloration, together with the notion of every thing from objects and portions to time and house. What about line drives?

Batted balls are historically sorted into three main buckets based mostly on their vertical route and one other three based mostly on their horizontal route. Proper now, I’m within the vertical buckets: groundballs, fly balls, and line drives. Sports activities Information Options retains observe of batted ball knowledge, which we home right here at FanGraphs, so you’ll find these numbers alongside conventional stats like singles, doubles, triples, and residential runs. With a couple of fast clicks, I can let you know Jose Altuve is the lively chief in groundballs, similar to he’s the lively chief in singles, and Freddie Freeman is the lively chief in line drives, similar to he’s the lively chief in extra-base hits. I used to be extra shocked to be taught Nolan Arenado is the lively chief in fly balls, and I feel that’s partially due to how usually he pops out. After I take away infield fly balls from the info, Andrew McCutchen jumps to the highest of the leaderboard. Therein lies the difficulty on the coronary heart of this piece: There aren’t any cut-and-dried guidelines for sorting batted balls. Should you checked out Baseball Savant as a substitute of our leaderboards, you wouldn’t discover Arenado or McCutchen sitting atop the fly ball rankings. Moderately, you’d see Carlos Santana (should you included popups) and Freeman (should you didn’t).

Not like singles, doubles, triples, and residential runs, the several types of batted balls aren’t discrete classes. As with colours, they exist on a spectrum. Take into account the swatches beneath. I took the colours instantly from three workforce logos on MLB.com:

The Orioles’ and Astros’ logos are each orange. Whether or not you’d name the Athletics’ emblem yellow or gold, what issues is that it’s in a distinct coloration class than the opposite two – although the distinction between Astros orange and A’s yellow actually isn’t that a lot better than the distinction between Orioles orange and Astros orange. All three colours exist someplace alongside the spectrum from purple to orange to yellow, however two of them are “similar” and one is “totally different.”

Now, think about the three batted balls within the clips beneath:

Every got here off Trea Turner’s bat on the similar pace (98 mph), and the distinction in launch angle between the primary hit and the second hit is identical because the distinction in launch angle between the second and the third. Nonetheless, the primary two had been groundballs, in accordance with each SIS and Statcast, whereas the third was a line drive. All three hits exist alongside the groundball-to-line drive spectrum, however as with the colours, two of them are “similar” and one is “totally different.”

This isn’t a grand revelation. I’m hardly the primary individual to jot down concerning the blurry line between groundballs and line drives and the even blurrier border separating line drives and fly balls. What I’m questioning is that if the rationale these two are categorised as separate forms of batted balls…

…whereas these two are each line drives…

…is identical motive why we’d say JT Chargois is carrying the identical coloration in displays A and B however a distinct coloration in exhibit C. Is all of it about language?

Categorical notion describes the human tendency to view variations between gadgets inside classes as a lot smaller than variations between gadgets in separate classes, even when these variations are of the identical magnitude. In different phrases, as soon as now we have created classes, intra-category variations can appear much less essential than inter-category ones.

For instance, analysis individuals have been discovered to understand variations between varieties of 1 coloration and variations between forms of one other coloration as a lot smaller than equal-sized variations that traverse the boundary between these two colours. This helps clarify why separating blue into two classes (siniy and goluboy) permits Russian audio system to raised distinguish between shades of blue. On the flip aspect, it helps clarify why English audio system are worse at distinguishing between darker and lighter blues.

I feel now we have the identical drawback with line drives. Based on the Dickson Baseball Dictionary, the primary identified use of the time period “line drive” was in an 1876 concern of the Chicago Tribune, although it was additionally used not less than a 12 months earlier to explain an identical sort of batted ball in cricket. Meaning the time period predates what we all know immediately as Main League Baseball, and it has been round since lengthy, lengthy earlier than we had any strategy to measure launch angle or exit velocity. It’s the identical for “groundball” and “fly ball” (and “popup”). Does it actually make sense that we’re nonetheless utilizing the identical main classes for batted balls which have been round for nearly so long as the sport itself? I imply, perhaps. However on the very least, it’s price contemplating that we solely deal with line drives as a single, unified class as a result of that’s all now we have the language to explain.

The colour time period “blue” implies an outlined class, distinct from inexperienced, purple, and many others., and encompasses each shade from navy to powder. In the identical approach, the time period “line drive” implies an outlined class, distinct from groundballs and fly balls, and encompasses all types of contact from low screamers to frozen-rope residence runs. But, I’m wondering if it wouldn’t be extra helpful to separate line drives into two classes: low line drives and excessive line drives. Utilizing the qualifiers “low” and “excessive” makes it seem to be I’m discussing subcategories, however that’s solely as a result of an absence of particular language forces subcategorization. You don’t have to say darkish and light-weight blue when you’ve got siniy and goluboy.

Over the previous three seasons, main league batters have hit practically 75,000 line drives, per Statcast. The median launch angle of these 75,000 line drives is someplace round 16 to 17 levels. That’s additionally the approximate midpoint between the place line drive batting common peaks (12-13 levels) and line drive ISO peaks (21 levels). So, 16 levels looks as if the precise upward cutoff level for a “low liner,” and 17 levels looks as if the precise place to begin for a “excessive liner.” Utilizing these definitions, right here’s how the 2 forms of batted ball have carried out since 2023:

Near 58% of low liners have became singles, in comparison with 27% of excessive liners. In the meantime, excessive liners are about 130 occasions extra more likely to be residence runs. Out of greater than 38,000 low liners from the previous three seasons, simply 10 have left the yard. That’s not so stunning; a batter has to completely smoke the baseball to get it over the fence with a launch angle below 17 levels. Nonetheless, low liners are way more productive than excessive liners as a result of they’re a lot more durable to catch. Solely 1 / 4 of low liners flip into outs, whereas excessive liners discover a fielder’s glove virtually half the time.

Right here’s how these numbers look in comparison with the identical stats for groundballs and fly balls:

The distinction in ISO between excessive liners and low liners is nearly as huge because the distinction in ISO between low liners and groundballs. Equally, the distinction in batting common between low liners and excessive liners actually isn’t that a lot smaller than the distinction in batting common between excessive liners and fly balls. So, by way of the outcomes they generate, low liners and excessive liners are roughly as totally different from each other as they’re from every other sort of batted ball. There’s additionally a visible part. Low liners extra carefully resemble groundballs, whereas excessive liners have extra in frequent with fly balls, and that’s not simply due to every’s proximity to the bottom. Low liners, like groundballs, usually tend to be hit to the batter’s pull aspect. In the meantime, excessive liners, like fly balls, are much less more likely to be pulled than they’re to be hit straightaway or to the other discipline:

You might argue that each one this proves is that batted balls exist on a spectrum, which was by no means up for debate. In spite of everything, you may suppose, we might chop up any sort of batted ball into any variety of smaller teams and are available away with totally different stats for every subtype. Which may effectively be true, however by that line of considering, there’s no level in categorizing batted balls in any respect.

Nobody would disagree that the exact cutoff factors for any system of batted ball classification are arbitrary. Nonetheless, batted ball sorts are an extremely great tool for describing and analyzing the sport. Meaningless cutoff factors are a crucial evil within the creation of classes that completely do matter. So, this has by no means been a query of discovering the “right” dividing strains between several types of contact. Moderately, it’s about being open to the concept that a couple of phrases invented 150 years in the past aren’t the be-all and end-all of batted balls.

So why excessive and low line drives? I might present you the stats for top and low groundballs or excessive and low fly balls, nevertheless it wouldn’t be as fascinating. A groundball hit too low is simply poor contact. The identical goes for a fly ball hit too excessive. High and low line drives, nonetheless, are each efficient however in numerous methods. Low liners are precious as a result of they’re more likely than groundballs to go for singles. Excessive liners are precious as a result of they’re a lot much less probably than fly balls to be caught after they don’t escape the yard.

That’s just about the crux of the matter: Low liners and excessive liners reach alternative ways. To that time, think about the pronounced distinction in common exit velocity and hard-hit fee between high and low liners:

It makes intuitive sense that low liners, on common, are hit more durable; in the event that they weren’t hit arduous sufficient, they’d contact the bottom too quickly and be labeled groundballs as a substitute of line drives. The factor is, whereas low liners usually tend to be hit arduous, they don’t must be hit as arduous to be able to achieve success. Arduous-hit low liners have a wOBA 15% greater than non-hard-hit low liners. Arduous-hit excessive liners have a wOBA 38% greater than non-hard-hit excessive liners. Even so, they nonetheless aren’t as precious as their hard-hit low counterparts:

The opposite aspect of that coin is that top liners have way more to realize from extra exit velocity. At an exit velocity of round 105 mph, excessive liners lastly eclipse low liners in productiveness, they usually solely get extra precious the more durable they’re hit. Low liners, however, are all equally productive at any exit velocity between 90 and 104 mph, they usually solely turn into marginally extra productive with every added mile per hour above 105:

The easy rationalization for that is low liners and excessive liners have totally different targets. All else being equal, hitting the ball more durable is nearly all the time going to result in higher outcomes on the plate. That mentioned, exit velocity makes a a lot greater distinction should you’re going for further bases. The distinction between a double and a house run is usually just some miles per hour of exit velocity. On the subject of hitting singles, nonetheless, typically it’s equally efficient to dink the ball in entrance of the outfielders as it’s to ship it over their heads.

On a associated be aware, the distinction between high and low line drives has grown extra pronounced in recent times. Baseball Prospectus’s Russell Carlton has written about line drives extensively, noting that they’re being caught at a better fee than prior to now and, maybe in response, line drive charges have declined. But, in accordance with the Statcast knowledge, these results haven’t been the identical for each high and low line drives.

Low line drives, that are much less prone to being caught, even have a better batting common over the previous three seasons than they did within the first three years (or every other three-year interval) of the Statcast period. That’s all of the extra spectacular contemplating the league-wide BABIP has declined considerably, dropping from .300 from 2015-17 to only .293 from 2023-25. Moreover, the low line drive fee has solely declined by half as a lot because the excessive line drive fee. In consequence, batters proceed to generate virtually as a lot worth with low line drives as they did in the beginning of the Statcast period. In distinction, excessive line drives have turn into a far much less plentiful supply of runs:

I hope all this was sufficient to persuade you that low liners and excessive liners are helpful as distinct classes for describing and understanding the sport. There’ll by no means be an ideal strategy to slap labels onto a spectrum. Dividing strains will all the time be fuzzy, and language will all the time restrict the labels we create. Even my proposal to separate line drives in two is biased by language; if there have been a standard English phrase for “medium peak,” maybe I’d be suggesting three new groupings as a substitute of simply excessive and low.

Finally, nonetheless, I’m not too involved with whether or not excessive and low line drives are the proper classes to recommend, or if I’ve break up them up the right approach. What issues to me most is just contemplating the likelihood that such extra classes exist. If language is the one factor holding us again from perceiving blue as two discrete colours, perhaps it’s additionally the one factor stopping us from seeing line drives as two several types of batted balls. Maybe it’s time to open our eyes to the siniy and goluboy of line drives.

All stats by June 29.