The 2024 MLB Draft has concluded, and it’s time to make definitive judgments about which groups did one of the best and worst earlier than lots of the gamers have even signed their offers. Simply kidding — whereas I do have a number of team-specific ideas under, this piece is extra about what unfolded throughout the draft as a complete. I texted people within the trade (scouts, executives, and brokers) to see what they considered the general outcomes, and in the event that they observed a continuation of broad trade tendencies or noticed habits particular to this 12 months’s proceedings. I’ve integrated a few of their ideas under.
Groups Leaning On School Contact Hitters
If there was a common response from group personnel over the past couple of days about this draft, it was that, particularly on Day Two, groups prioritized faculty hitters who had demonstrated bat-to-ball skill. Rutgers shortstop Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (A’s) and Texas Tech catcher Kevin Bazzell (Nationals) bought issues kicked off within the third spherical, after which gamers who both want a swing change, like Oklahoma State’s Zach Ehrhard (Purple Sox, fourth spherical), or to get a lot stronger, like Eli Serrano (Mets, fourth spherical), have been additionally frequent Day Two picks. There’s a rising variety of groups that might somewhat have contact expertise on board to start out after which attempt to add or increase different stuff, like energy or swing mechanics, later. The final sentiment is that hitting is more durable to show. This isn’t common (the Orioles took Vance Honeycutt within the first spherical), and I feel it could possibly simply be argued that having an up-the-middle defensive match (particularly the athleticism to play shortstop or middle subject) is each bit as innate and doubtless scarcer. One other variable that appears to have motivated this reasoning brings me to my second overarching theme…
The Altering Run Setting in School Baseball Has Made Energy (and Different Traits) More durable to Belief and Consider
There have been items written about this elsewhere, and it was a typical chorus amongst group personnel throughout the lead as much as the draft and after. No matter is altering the run setting (there are some trade rumors/conspiracy theories about bat juicing in faculty baseball), it received’t have an effect on whether or not or not a hitter makes contact. Hitting a baseball is sometimes called the toughest factor to do in skilled sports activities, and as pitchers get higher and higher, discovering guys who can really do it’s a league-wide precedence. I do suppose we’re driving the asymptote of pitcher growth so far as quantum leaps in approach are involved and that hitter dev is beginning to catch up, however orgs can nonetheless apply pitching dev methodology to arm after arm.
The Mariners’ Draft
That is the second 12 months in a row that the Mariners’ pursuit of over-slot excessive schoolers meant they pivoted to older gamers sooner than different golf equipment. Whereas their 2023 class yielded extra younger gamers as a result of they’d so many picks, this 12 months’s Ryan Sloan choice within the second spherical (he may very well be greater than $2 million over slot) led them to a number of 23-ish-year-old seniors and grad college students on Day Two. Kansas reliever Hunter Cranton (higher 90s with plus-flashing slider — he’s going to maneuver rapidly), Oregon righty Brock Moore (moved into starter function late within the season and held 94-96), and two-way participant Grant Knipp (one of many hardest throwers on the Mix, 95-97) have been the extra distinguished of the six seniors they chose. I’ve written this earlier than: There’s worth in being the primary group to start out taking these guys since you get one of the best ones. Normally whenever you draft big-bonus excessive schoolers, you find yourself with a top-heavy class and are prone to being gentle on depth. The Mariners averted that.
We Simply Had the Fewest Excessive Faculty Gamers Drafted, Ever
A minimum of, inside 20 rounds, excluding the five-round 2020 draft. A few of that is particular to the expertise make-up of this class, which was gentle on excessive schoolers. You recognize the sensation you get whenever you first open a bag of chips and see how few are literally in there? That’s what’s felt like scouting this highschool class final summer season.
There are different forces at play right here as effectively. Participant growth is extra pricey now due to obligatory modifications made to how minor leaguers are paid and housed. MLB has slashed away 60 minor league associates from its golf equipment’ farm programs in response to the rise in per participant value, and likewise minimize the draft in half, from 40 rounds to twenty. A discount in minor league roster spots and the dearth of post-draft, short-season associates (the previous Northwest, Appalachian, and Pioneer Leagues), the place newly drafted faculty gamers typically started their careers, creates a expertise bottlenecking impact on the faculty degree. Main League Baseball (be aware the capitalization — I’m referring to the enterprise entity right here) has an incentive to outsource participant growth to varsity baseball, and it’s a symbiotic relationship as a result of the NCAA would like to have a extra gifted and watchable “product.”
I’ve requested folks if the pull of NIL cash in faculty is a part of the equation, and whereas it definitely is so far as selecting a faculty and navigating the switch portal is anxious, folks with massive league groups have persistently advised me that the brand new cash flying round faculty baseball hasn’t actually impacted their skill to signal gamers. Schools have supplied some gamers some huge cash to switch or keep at their college (the best rumored quantity is within the mid-six figures), however even when, say, Texas A&M is providing you $500,000 or so to stay round, if the Angels draft you within the third spherical, your bonus goes to be a lot larger than that.
The Brewers’ Draft
The Brewers adopted up on their excessive school-heavy 2023 draft with a good youthful group this 12 months, and it reveals an fascinating technique. Their first spherical choose, Braylon Payne, was typically seen as a second-round prospect. His bonus is more likely to be effectively under the $4.5 million slot worth of his choose, with some quantity of the surplus pool house diverted to the highschool pitching prospects they chose within the second and Comp B rounds, New Jersey excessive schoolers Bryce Meccage and Chris Levonas. In addition they popped excessive schoolers in rounds 9 and 10, after which took a number of on Day Three. Not all of those guys are going to signal however a number of of them will. Recall final 12 months that Brewers bought Cooper Pratt’s deal carried out for $1.3 million within the sixth spherical after which additionally signed a number of excessive schoolers for between $250,000-$550,000 on Day Three of the draft. Day Three picks don’t have bonus slots that scale back your group’s pool if the participant doesn’t signal, so except for a bit alternative value (the school man they’d have in any other case taken in spherical 14 or no matter), the Brewers can now negotiate with a bunch of higher-upside highschool gamers between now and the signing deadline and determine what mixture of bonuses and gamers provides them one of the best total class.
A number of groups do a model of this yearly, however no person does it to this diploma. Whether or not it was precipitated by the character of this specific draft class or simply how the board fell within the first spherical (i.e. the Brewers didn’t like who was left on the board, so that they pivoted to this technique), we simply don’t know.
Excessive Faculty Pitching Is The Rags
Is it attainable groups are valuing highschool pitching much less and fewer as time goes on, and that we’ve now hit some sort of backside? In a draft that was the deepest in highschool arms amongst all of the participant demographics, one of the best one (for my part), William Schmidt, determined to drag his title out and go to LSU somewhat than be drafted. The following-best one, Cam Caminiti, had an “surprising” fall and was the primary highschool pitcher chosen at choose 24 in a weaker draft. (I had Caminiti ranked twenty first, so whereas my draft night time chat was dropping its thoughts that he was falling, he went about the place I had him.)
The time it takes highschool pitchers to develop (each from a technical perspective and from a sturdiness standpoint) and the danger that they received’t (take into consideration how totally different pitching as soon as per week for two-and-half months is in comparison with a full-season professional workload) is influencing group habits. And perhaps lower than “group habits,” it’s affecting “decision-maker habits.” You’ll be able to’t play when you don’t have a seat on the desk, and I do suppose extra often the self-interest of executives is trumping groups’ greatest pursuits. When you’ve got one or two years to save lots of your job, why take a highschool participant who received’t be prepared for one more 5? I don’t suppose each group or govt is behaving this fashion (Pittsburgh wants good massive league hitters ASAP, but they took Konnor Griffin and several other different excessive schoolers regardless of the danger/time ingredient as a result of they imagine within the expertise), however the quantity is rising.
Groupthink on the Rise
One other frequent response from trade personnel this 12 months was one thing like, “We’re all making selections wanting on the identical information and, more and more, primarily based on comparable interpretations of that information.” This intersects with the school contact hitter level above. Groups are fastball vertical strategy angle and hitters’ contact and chase charges, they usually have regression fashions which are fed the identical information as their opponents’ fashions, partially as a result of MLB (and its cheaper homeowners) needed to keep away from an arms race on this house. Individuals in profitable organizations diffuse to dangerous ones when the dangerous ones make a brand new GM or POBO rent, and the methodology of the profitable orgs spreads to the crummier groups. That is occurring quicker than particular person groups could make a leap in scouting or dev, and we’re approaching a kind of equilibrium the place the aggressive benefits will likely be mined from the interpersonal nooks and crannies of this course of and the technique with which groups choose. I feel you could possibly argue that orgs which are much less inclined to stick to data-based strategies are in a greater place now than ever earlier than as a result of the numerous data-driven groups find yourself competing for a similar gamers. If there’s a science- or analytics-driven hole between groups, it’s in the way in which participant growth is taken into account as they decide their draft targets.
