This week’s mailbag contains questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and rather more.
Abner asks:
The Tarik Skubal commerce rumors dominated the information through the previous weekend. The NY Mets has been talked about as a potential vacation spot for the Detroit Tigers’ ace. However what can be a practical prospect capital price the Mets must stay with in the event that they actually wish to get a man as proficient as Skubal (even for simply 1 yr of crew management)? Now, Freddy Peralta may be obtainable within the commerce market, and he for certain must be a extra inexpensive possibility than Skubal. Understanding the way in which David Stearns values the farm system of the crew and his reference to the Brewers, which commerce has extra likelihood to get achieved , a commerce for Peralta or a commerce for Skubal? Thanks prematurely.
There’s by no means been any indication Skubal and the Tigers had been shut on a contract extension, neither is there an indication the crew’s willingness to commerce him has modified. Steve Adams and I differ on the probability of an offseason commerce taking place. In a dialogue final week, Steve pegged the probabilities of a Skubal commerce this winter at 0.25%. I am extra within the vary of 5-10%.
Steve wrote in his stay chat yesterday, “I believe the Tigers can be loopy to actually make Skubal obtainable. They’re simply not going to be higher in 2026 with out him, whatever the return, until you’re simply banking on Skubal getting damage. He’s the perfect pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, however you could be No. 2 for now). I’d completely simply journey out the yr and attempt to signal him in free company. The draft choose after the primary spherical isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Collection window proper now, then buying and selling Skubal isn’t one thing I’d spend a lot time entertaining. Let groups make the loopy affords, certain, however they’d need to be provided one thing outrageous to contemplate it.”
My stance is that I can not peer into the thoughts of Tigers proprietor Christopher Ilitch. Some homeowners do commerce celebrity gamers within the offseason earlier than their stroll yr in the event that they decide they can’t signal him. We have seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others. I believe Steve would possibly say that Skubal is totally different from these gamers, the groups are in considerably totally different spots, and/or their homeowners had totally different philosophies.
I discover Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it surely would not shock me.
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