It was season for the Reds in 2025, on stability. Hunter Greene replicated his glorious 2024 andcemented himself one of many sport’s high younger starters, Andrew Abbott loved a career-year that noticed him make his first journey to the All-Star sport, and regardless of profitable simply 83 video games the membership managed to squeak into the postseason for the primary time in a full season since 2013.
With all that being mentioned, nonetheless, there’s clear flaws with the workforce as presently constructed and it’s under no circumstances laborious to see the place workforce wants to enhance in the event that they hope to return to the playoffs subsequent yr for an additional chew on the apple. The Cincinnati offense upset throughout the board this season, with even star shortstop Elly De La Cruz hitting 11 fewer extra-base hits and swiping 30 fewers bases than final yr regardless of comparable on-base numbers.
In a season the place nearly every bit of the membership’s offense nucleus fell wanting expectations, it appears a bit unfair to single out anyone participant. Even so, the struggles second baseman Matt McLain confronted stand out among the many crowd. McLain was one of the vital thrilling younger gamers in baseball as just lately as 2023, when his sensational 89-game rookie season earned him a fifth-place end in NL Rookie of the 12 months voting that yr. Sadly, he missed the whole 2024 season resulting from accidents and in some regards regarded like a shell of his former self this season.
That’s to not say he regressed throughout the board. McLain’s 28.9% strikeout fee this season was a close to excellent match for the 28.5% clip he struck out at again in 2023. His 9.5% stroll fee was really a considerable enchancment over the 7.7% fee he posted in his rookie marketing campaign. His protection was additionally phenomenal as he completed the yr with +6 Fielding Run Worth, a determine bested by simply eight certified center infielders in baseball this yr. That’s a considerable step up from the +1 FRV McLain supplied in his rookie marketing campaign.
These are all constructive (or, within the case of McLain’s strikeout fee, at the least impartial) indicators relative to 2023. It’s additionally the place the great instances come to an finish, nonetheless. McLain’s energy was down considerably by nearly each metric this previous yr. After slugging 16 homers in 89 video games as a rookie, he hit 15 throughout 147 video games this yr. His doubles additionally dropped from 23 to 18, whereas his triples really dropped from 4 all the best way all the way down to zero. Hitting ten fewer extra-base hits in 174 extra plate appearances is a drop in energy output that’s nothing wanting alarming, and McLain’s paltry .124 ISO put him within the backside 20 amongst certified hitters this yr. His barrel fee dropped greater than three factors from 2023, and his hard-hit fee has dropped almost two.
That falls wanting even some notoriously contact-oriented hitters like Jung Hoo Lee and Jacob Wilson. Whereas these gamers (to not point out hitters with even much less energy like Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner) get away with that minimal energy output due to elite bat-to-ball abilities, however McLain’s lack of enchancment within the strikeout division leaves him unable to emulate that model of hitting. Barring an enormous drop in strikeout fee subsequent yr, McLain might want to recapture a few of that energy if he’s going to enhance over this yr’s paltry 77 wRC+, a lot much less strategy the 129 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season.
Simply how possible is that? It’s laborious to consider that he’ll get again to that stage he flashed in 2023 fully, as a result of that was buoyed in no small half by a .385 BABIP. A BABIP of .350 is usually considered as across the higher restrict of the sustainable year-to-year vary, and McLain’s .292 BABIP this yr falls firmly into that extra sustainable vary. It’s attainable it ticks again up sooner or later, however reversing that greater than 90-point drop seems to be little greater than a pipe dream. Getting again above league common, nonetheless, appears to be a much more affordable ask, and one that would flip McLain right into a key piece of Cincinnati’s core as soon as once more.
He’ll want to regulate his strategy a bit if he’s going to get there. McLain’s hard-hit fee was solely marginally decrease than his rookie season in 2025, however he misplaced greater than 1 / 4 of his barrels on a fee foundation this season. A few of that may certainly be attributed to a stark drop in line drives. Whereas McLain’s grounder fee stayed stagnant at 38.7% between this yr and 2023, his line drive fee dropped from 24.2% clip as a rookie to only 17.2% this yr. To place these numbers in context, his line drive fee this yr ranked 132nd amongst 145 certified hitters, whereas his 2023 fee would’ve ranked eighth this yr amongst that very same group.
Getting again to a extra line drive oriented strategy might assist McLain each recoup a few of these misplaced extra-base hits, and it might additionally assist together with his steeply declining BABIP. McLain hit 44.2% of his batted balls within the air this yr, a top-30 clip within the majors. That works effectively for hitters like Aaron Decide and Kyle Schwarber who’ve the ability to slug 40+ homers on an annual foundation, but it surely’s loads much less efficient recipe for fulfillment for somebody with McLain’s profile. He pulled the ball much less typically than all however 23 of the league’s certified hitters this yr, leaving him with quite a lot of fly outs and pop ups however little manufacturing to point out for it.
If McLain can decrease his launch angle a bit subsequent yr, he might get again to hitting the candy spot extra typically than he did this yr. That was the key ingredient that made McLain so efficient in 2023, as his 39.6% candy spot fee ranked within the 94th percentile amongst all MLB hitters. That dropped to only 34.0% this yr, which positioned him within the forty third percentile. The excellent news for McLain and the Reds is {that a} change in strategy is much simpler to right than a step again in underlying abilities, and McLain’s self-discipline, protection, velocity and bat velocity all appear to be both proper the place they have been in his rookie yr and even higher. That makes it comparatively simple to think about him re-emerging as a core piece of a Reds lineup that might want to generate much more offense this yr in the event that they wish to construct on their cameo within the playoffs this season.
