Liverpool head into Sunday’s Premier League assembly with Manchester Metropolis as slender favourites, in line with Opta’s predictive mannequin, regardless of an inconsistent marketing campaign up to now.
The Opta supercomputer provides us a 43% probability of victory at Anfield, in comparison with Metropolis’s 30.3%, with the draw rated at 26.7%.
That backing is just not rooted in blind religion or sentiment, however in a group of developments that proceed to favour Liverpool when this fixture rolls round on Merseyside.
Liverpool’s Anfield file towards Man Metropolis nonetheless issues
Liverpool have misplaced simply one among our final 22 Premier League house video games towards Manchester Metropolis, profitable 14 and drawing seven in that run.
The one defeat got here in February 2021, the only real event Metropolis have overwhelmed us at Anfield and whereas we had been reigning champions in an empty stadium.
That historic context stays related, significantly with Pep Guardiola’s aspect once more travelling to Anfield figuring out it has hardly ever been a forgiving venue for them.
Erling Haaland, now 25, has additionally failed to attain in all three of his Premier League away appearances towards Liverpool.
Anfield is one among simply two grounds the Norwegian has performed at within the division with out discovering the online, which additional feeds into the sense that Metropolis’s attacking risk doesn’t all the time translate right here.
Former Liverpool striker Peter Crouch additionally struggled to separate the edges, predicting a high-scoring draw and backing Hugo Ekitike to open the scoring when talking on That Peter Crouch Podcast.
Current kind suggests Liverpool are more durable to beat
Manchester Metropolis’s process may be difficult by the possible absence of Bernardo Silva, with Pep Guardiola admitting the Portugal worldwide stays an “unbelievable doubt” due to a again muscle drawback.
Liverpool’s season has been uneven, however the broader development since mid-October has been one among stability fairly than collapse.
Since matchday 13, no Premier League aspect has misplaced fewer video games than Liverpool, with Arne Slot’s aspect recording only one defeat throughout 12 league fixtures.
That resilience was underlined within the 4-1 win over Newcastle United final day out, when Liverpool recovered from an early setback to overwhelm their opponents with attacking high quality.
Florian Wirtz continues to develop into his function, whereas Hugo Ekitike has turn out to be more and more decisive in entrance of aim.
Since December, Wirtz has been concerned in additional targets than some other Premier League participant in all competitions, whereas Ekitike has reached double figures for league targets at a youthful age than any Liverpool participant since Michael Owen.
These attacking enhancements matter, particularly towards a Manchester Metropolis aspect that has not scored a second-half league aim in 2026 and has proven vulnerability after the break.
Metropolis stay a robust aspect and are having fun with a greater league place than us, however they’re additionally six factors behind Arsenal and below strain to maintain tempo.
Liverpool, in the meantime, arrive with renewed confidence, a robust house file on this fixture, and statistical developments that specify why Opta see us as favourites.
It doesn’t assure something on Sunday, however it does clarify why perception is quietly returning forward of one of many Premier League’s defining rivalries.
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