The Genesis Invitational is again at Riviera Nation Membership after final 12 months’s detour to Torrey Pines due to the wildfires, and that adjustments every part. Torrey requested gamers to outlive round 12 underneath, whereas Riviera often calls for nearer to 17 to win. Identical „onerous course“ label — however utterly totally different scoring stress. Right here, you continue to want elite irons and contact across the greens, however you additionally should convert.
I am focusing on gamers who can create birdie appears with method photographs, save themselves once they miss the greens and truly capitalize on momentum. Riviera is iron-first, poa-sensitive and separates the sector by tee to inexperienced consistency.
From a pricing standpoint, I do not love this board. Most prime 20s are juiced, and I am not paying tax simply to have motion. I hardly ever step into Prime 10 until there’s a actual ceiling case. So this can be a mild card, however not a fairly one, which suggests passing is all the time an choice. If we’re taking part in, this is what I’ve.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and topic to vary.
Greatest bets
Hideki Matsuyama: Prime 10 (+170)
All of ESPN. Multi functional place.
Watch your favourite occasions within the newly enhanced ESPN App. Be taught extra about what plan is best for you. Signal Up Now
Full odds
Prime 20 (-142)
Prime 5 (+365)
To win (22-1)
I often stay within the top-20 streets as a result of that is the place consistency pays, however Deki is likely one of the few guys I am snug stepping as much as a Prime 10 for this week — as a result of he spikes.
Matsuyama’s complete sport is constructed for onerous golf programs. He is elite along with his irons, prime 10 within the subject from tee to inexperienced, first across the greens and among the finest scramblers on tour. All which means is when Hideki misses the inexperienced, he saves himself, which retains rounds alive and prevents large numbers.
He is received right here earlier than but additionally has two missed cuts, making volatility a chance. But when his irons are crisp and he finds his contact along with his quick sport, Matsuyama can bounce the leaderboard. That is why I do not thoughts the Prime 10 as a result of I see him extra as a Prime 5 — a ceiling play.
Maverick McNealy: Prime 20 (+115)
Full odds:
Prime 10 (+280)
Prime 5 (+620)
To win (41-1)
McNealy is best than the market thinks. The plus-money value on a Prime 20 exhibits skepticism. Maybe it is the streaky placing or the dearth of bombs off the tee, however that is wonderful as a result of Riviera calls for management.
Riviera is an approach-first course with missed greens baked into the design. You must create appears with irons after which survive across the inexperienced. That is the place McNealy quietly suits. He is prime 25 from tee to inexperienced, lengthy sufficient off the tee and — extra importantly — exact from the golf green. His placing additionally helps (prime 10 within the subject) on a course that neutralizes elite putters, however rewards guys who can keep regular on poa and convert momentum appears. McNealy does that.
He does have a T7 at Riviera in 2022 gaining over 9 strokes complete and completed tenth at Torrey Pines earlier this month, exhibiting that he likes lengthy, demanding setups the place tee to inexperienced play carries weight. Prime 20 asks for strong ball placing and common saves, which inserts his present type and Riviera profile. This can be a respect wager.
Scottie Scheffler: To Win (+320)
Full odds:
Prime 10 (-300)
Prime 5 (-144)
Editor’s Picks
1 Associated
This value may have you wrinkling your nostril. Positive, it feels quick and appears costly, and feels such as you’re paying retail pricing, however then you definitely have a look at the sector and suppose, „Oh, Scottie is profitable this week.“
He is the gold normal as a result of his sport travels wherever, however what makes this week fascinating is that his irons, that are nonetheless prime 5 within the subject, have been the „weakest“ a part of his sport … and that tells you every part. When your baseline is that top, you do not want perfection.
He is additionally first from tee to inexperienced and off the tee, and third in scrambling. Place your self, miss within the right spots and survive when greens are inevitably missed. Scottie does that higher than anybody. Even when his iron play will not be as its ceiling, it is nonetheless elite sufficient to generate appears. And when he does miss, he saves par at an absurd price.
His opening rounds have not been sharp this 12 months, shedding strokes tee to inexperienced on Thursdays. Actually, the splits are wild: damaging Thursday, adopted by plus-three or minus-three strokes gained per spherical Friday by Sunday. I would not name that volatility, however extra calibrating. He figures out the course, then suffocates the fields.
The worth appears gross, however it’s one of the best golfer on the earth on a course that magnifies his edge. Look ahead to a greater value? You do not quit the pre-tournament value chasing a hypothetical dip. The books know this sample, too. If he is a couple of strokes again, you may even see +400, not a large low cost relative to his true win chance.
Prime 5 at -144 is okay however it’s skinny, for a participant whose win fairness is actual right here. If his profile matches the winners‘ template and he is one of the best tee-to-green participant, +320 is not gross. It is justified.
Gamers to think about for Every day Fantasy
Play every day fantasy golf at DraftKings.
Ryo Hisatsune $6,800: That is pure upside. He is prime 10 from tee to inexperienced proper now with prime 25 method and robust poa placing. Ball placing right here creates separation and placing simply must be impartial. He has three straight prime 10 finishes, coming off a T2 at Torrey, T10 at Phoenix and T8 at Pebble — three demanding setups, exhibiting iron ceiling. The chance is clear: first Riviera begin and common scrambling, however at this value, you are shopping for method upside and up to date type. If the irons journey, a Prime 25 is stay.
Patrick Cantlay $9,300: This can be a conditional sure. You are paying for Riviera match and never present momentum. He is gained double-digit tee to inexperienced right here earlier than with a number of prime 5 finishes and his total profile does match what works for this course — sturdy method play, regular off the tee, and impartial poa placing. The priority is volatility: If his irons dip, that might be troublesome as a result of his scrambling is not elite. At this value, Cantlay is not a ceiling play like Scheffler, however a stability piece. Money and single-entry viable or GPP provided that possession stays modest.
DFS participant to fade
Jake Knapp $8,600: Sure, he has 5 straight prime 11 finishes and a T17 on this occasion final 12 months — however that was at Torrey Pines, not Riviera. Knapp’s present run is being fueled by elite driving distance and a scorching putter. Nice combo, however not essentially for this course. Suppose method precision and contact across the greens. He is ranked poorly in each method relative to the sector and his scrambling is common at finest. This value is paying for a latest heater, and overlooking Riviera match.
