12:02
Dan Szymborski: Thanks these in attendance for fulfilling your legally required duties to look right here.
12:02
[adinserter block="3"]
: Hello Dan, what are your ideas on the Victor Robles extension?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume it’s unreasonable for anybody
12:03
Dan Szymborski: He’s hit lots higher final two seasons, however in a restricted position. However there’s actually a great deal of threat
12:04
Dan Szymborski: however theres’ upside too. Individuals neglect that Robles was as soon as one of many elite prospects and had a *very* stable rookie season
12:04
Dan Szymborski: However there’s draw back too since he has like a low .600s OPS since COVID
12:07
: Why do the entire CFs have a decrease DEF on the location than their FRV? Shouldn’t the defensive adjustment be optimistic?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Hmm, that does appear somewhat odd
12:09
Dan Szymborski: My guess since I can’t actually dig into it in two minutes
12:09
Dan Szymborski: is that we recenter common to 0 in defensive projections
12:10
Dan Szymborski: err measurements, not projections
12:10
Dan Szymborski: defensive measurements
12:11
Dan Szymborski: Like take a principally all CF
12:11
Dan Szymborski: liek Kiermaier
12:11
Dan Szymborski: he’s at 8 FRV
12:11
Dan Szymborski: in case you look down at worth, fielding is simply 5.7
12:12
Dan Szymborski: The common CF in FRV is an above-average CF
12:12
Dan Szymborski: and taht 2.3 run changes seems about proper in recentering it
12:14
Dan Szymborski: and it seems like LFs have a barely higher Fielding down within the worth desk
12:14
Dan Szymborski: than than their FRV
12:14
Dan Szymborski: which additionally jibes
12:14
: Ideas on the Victor Robles extension, I do know the present type will not be sustainable however is there sufficient precise progress there to warrant the small guess?
12:14
Dan Szymborski: Yup
12:14
: Does Tyler O’Neill at present have each of his legs connected?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: It could be superb. Unsure in the event that they found out what trigger dhte an infection
12:15
: What do you make of spikes in efficiency (e.g., guys with a profession ~25% Okay% slicing it in half hastily)? I assume ZiPS requires a lot of information earlier than it’s prepared to take an enormous flip?
12:15
Dan Szymborski: Sure, although much less so in one thing like Okay% which has actual adjustments faster
12:17
Dan Szymborski: When ZiPS season-to-season calculates a baseline charge simply from the road as a place to begin, it weight these adjustments way more rapidly
12:17
Dan Szymborski: Like in 2025 projections, assuming all issues being equal in any other case
12:18
Dan Szymborski: the preliminary Okay% charge within the fundamental line baseline can have 2024’s strikeout charge as 136% extra necessary than 2023’s striekout charge for a hitter
12:18
Dan Szymborski: however for HR charge, it’s solely 71% extra necessary and 1B/2B solely 38% extra necessary
12:19
: How has my brother’s ZiPS projection modified after he’s regarded way more comfy on the plate in his 2nd main league stint? And the way assured are you he’ll be the 2025 Opening Day beginning 2B?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Not as a lot as you’d assume as a result of these are all small samples!
12:19
Dan Szymborski: He’s been proper on observe
12:19
Dan Szymborski: Bear in mind, ZiPS wasn’t projecting loopy efficiency instantly
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Although it was JUST sufficient uncertainty that if I did my zips prime 100 prospects on Might 1st, he would have dropped to #2 behind James Wooden
12:21
Dan Szymborski: assuming Yamamoto is off the zips prime 100 at this level
12:21
: Favourite restaurant in Cincinnati? The place would you advocate for guests?
12:22
Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually eat in Cincinnati all that a lot
12:23
Dan Szymborski: my favourite Cincy eating places could also be Nice American Ballpark concessions
12:24
Dan Szymborski: thought I’ve most likely tried a great proportion of over the rhine locations
12:24
Dan Szymborski: like I like 5 on vine
12:26
Dan Szymborski: As I become older and my digestive system turns into an increasing number of grumpy, I’m much less inclined to eat full meals at eating places
12:26
: So does this imply that you’re lastly going to launch the precise creator of ZIPs, in case you are releasing everybody out of your basement?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: No, he’s within the oubliette. Didn’t say i used to be launched him
12:26
: If Soto and Decide end 1st and 2nd in WAR on the finish of the season will this be the primary time it’s occurred? What’s the closest it has come?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: This would be the first time they completed 1 and a couple of!
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Although I’m guessing you imply teammates! 🙂
12:27
Dan Szymborski: now, schilling/unit did it in pitchers with the diamondbacks
12:28
Dan Szymborski: amongst htiters, Griffey and A-Rod in 1996
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Boggs and Greenwell in 1988
12:29
Dan Szymborski: Bench and Morgan in 1972
12:30
Dan Szymborski: DiMaggio and Gehrig in 1937
12:30
Dan Szymborski: Ruth and Gehrig in 1931
12:32
Dan Szymborski: The Orioles swept each 1-2 in several combos from 1896-1898
12:32
Dan Szymborski: Anson and Gore in 1880
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Decan White and O’Rourke in 1876
12:33
Dan Szymborski: after which a 4 yr run of boston crimson stockings
12:33
: How does Zips react to somebody like Paul Dejong’s final couple of years? He regarded completely cooked for a few years that ought to’ve been prime seasons, had a great first half final yr, then couldn’t hit in any respect, then to being near league common this yr. I’ve whiplash on him.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: Typically it takes the center floor
12:35
Dan Szymborski: It’s somewhat beneath and the form is barely completely different (ZiPS had much less offense however extra protection), however ZiPS had DeJong at 1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he’s at 1.4 WAR in 393
12:35
: Which of the O’s lurking outfield prospects do you belief essentially the most to make an actual main league impression in ’25/26? Bradfield, Fabian, Beavers, Honeycutt? Additionally what if Bradfield made the playoff roster this fall as a pinch runner / defensive alternative…
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Bradfield and Honeycutt are essentially the most fascinating
12:36
Dan Szymborski: Fabian’s going to drop off *laborious* in ZiPS
12:36
Dan Szymborski: and Beaver hasn’t been that reat
12:36
: What do you concentrate on Masataka Yoshida at this level? He’s been good-to-great because the begin of July after coping with accidents, and he had a terrific stretch final yr earlier than carrying down within the second half. I really like watching him hit, however appears laborious to see how he suits into what will likely be a crowded Purple Sox lineup as soon as all the highest prospects begin debuting subsequent yr.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I’m nonetheless questioning if he’d play higher protection in anothe rpark
12:38
Dan Szymborski: As a result of him being solely DH actually hurts his flexibility. He can hit, nevertheless it’s not THAT superb in case you MUST DH him
12:39
: Assist me end this sentence. Kyle Tucker returns and Houston wins the…
12:39
Dan Szymborski: ..prize for being the massive American metropolis with the least zoning legal guidelines
12:39
Dan Szymborski: OH GOD FEWEST
12:40
: What are the chances Decide will get to 500 hr and Soto will get to 600 hr?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the primary at 57% and the second at 53%, in order that comes out at 30%
12:41
Dan Szymborski: they’re most likely not THAT unbiased as a result of they’ll correlate barely due to the prospect of any important change in offensive ranges
12:41
Dan Szymborski: although ZiPS doesn’t actually handle a mannequin of drastically altering league offense
12:41
: Looks as if Rubenstein actually might spend along with his new toy, the Orioles (taking over 2 wage dumps on the deadline!). Ought to I be involved they might bid on a sure excessive OBP OF bat hitting free company this offseason? What different single free agent acquisition would make them take the most important leap from “excellent” to “whoa, scary” in 2025?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure he’ll go THAT far into spending. Although the workforce completely may
12:42
Dan Szymborski: I want to see a run at locking up among the workforce’s younger gamers
12:42
Dan Szymborski: as a result of the O’s have executed exactly none of that recently
12:42
: Jhonkensy Noel has been good for a 143 OPS+ and a 145 wRC+ in his first 94 PA, for a 0.6 WAR to date. How a lot does a primary 100 PAs like this swing ZiPS for a brand new callup—and does it matter that he’s doing this largely as a part-time participant versus an on a regular basis one (though it seems like that’s altering)?
12:43
Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t actually matter, although ZiPS doesn’t take into account pinch-hitting PAs
12:43
Dan Szymborski: (their inclusion truly makes the mannequin barely worse)
12:43
: This Decide 22-24 run appears like a hitter’s model of Pedro doing THAT through the PED period. I do know that’s the purpose of utilizing WAR, although.
12:43
Dan Szymborski: He’s a Corridor of Famer now for me
12:44
: I have to say I discovered it fascinating to learn just lately that Anthony Rendon is a “veteran chief.”
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Properly, not all leaders lead their groups to good locations!
12:44
: Has intermittent fasting helped you take pleasure in each remaining sandwich extra?
12:45
Dan Szymborski: It does, although I’m cautious to not eat like a lunatic on consuming days
12:45
: What’s for lunch?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: I’ve some leftover linguine with white clam sauce in teh fridge
12:46
: Why can’t Boston upset somebody within the ALDS?
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Possibly they’re not imply sufficient to folks
12:46
: Had been Seunghwan Oh to have performed his complete profession within the MLB, what does ZiPS assume his profession WAR can be? We solely bought three seasons of “The Closing Boss,” however they had been fairly promising for an older reliever
12:47
Dan Szymborski: I can’t try this rapidly, however ZiPS was all the time a fan
12:47
: hello dan, what’s the take care of ronel blanco? particularly, he’s on observe to have the bottom babip ever for a man over 100 ip (at present .199). does something about his profile point out that he’s genuinely elite at suppressing contact, or is that this simply an all time nice variance season, albeit a feel-good one ?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks that he must be *barely* higher than common relative to Houston’s D, however nothing like a .199
12:48
: I’m not saying the Orioles remorse selecting Rutschman, however how fortunate are the Royals that Witt fell to No. 2?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: They’re fairly lucky in fact!
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Witt is ridonkulous
12:49
: It appears Craig Breslow has executed a reasonably horrible job of expertise analysis for the redsox. Not including within the offseason after which not promoting on the deadline if he wasn’t going to truly handle any of the workforce’s holes. How would you charge his tenure to date
12:49
Dan Szymborski: Nonetheless an incomplete. It’s laborious to guage GMs/presidents rapidly as a result of organizations as a complete, together with possession, make selections
12:49
Dan Szymborski: you don’t actually have the transaction satrap as a mannequin anymore prefer it was in a majority of locations
12:50
: Ought to a Yainer Diaz extension be on the desk? Or are we unsure that he sticks at catcher lengthy sufficient?
12:51
Dan Szymborski: I’m on the fence there. The possibility that he strikes off catcher down the highway is important
12:51
Dan Szymborski: and there are 4 years till FA
12:52
: Do you see Santander getting a brand new take care of the O’s? if not, would a ballpark of 3yr/$60 mil be about proper?
12:52
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS truly suggests 3/60 earlier than the season!
12:52
Dan Szymborski: So it might be extra now. Grasp on
12:52
Dan Szymborski: nicely, 3/59
12:52
Dan Szymborski: earlier than the season
12:53
Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to come back again round
12:53
: Juan Soto will end the highest _ hitter of all time
12:53
Dan Szymborski: staring
12:53
: Astros have been taking part in .600 ball for 3+ months now. Its an extended shot, however the place do you set the chances of passing one of many different division leaders and getting a bye?
12:53
Dan Szymborski: Pretty low as a result of they need to beat *three* groups
12:54
Dan Szymborski: There are fewer eventualities by which the AL East winner slumps
12:54
Dan Szymborski: as a result of if solely one of many Orioles/yankees slumps, the *different* workforce wins the AL East
12:54
: Now that analytics have proved that pitch framing is indisputably extra beneficial than stopping wild pitches and stolen bases, when will the #2 place be renamed, “Framer,” as a substitute of, “Catcher?”
12:54
Dan Szymborski: Properly, framing continues to be a part of catching
12:55
Dan Szymborski: it’s simply particular location-based catching
12:56
: How probably will Reds win each the Cy Younger and MVP, however miss the playoffs?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Possibly one-in-50?
12:57
: What are the possibilities each the Dodgers and the Braves miss the playoffs this yr? That appeared unfathomable again in April.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have it in entrance of me, however actually lengthy
12:57
Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers COULD lose the division
12:58
Dan Szymborski: however they’re 8 1/2 video games forward of the third wild card workforce that *isn’t* the Braves (the Mets)
12:59
Dan Szymborski: and 11 video games forward of the subsequent groups (Playing cards/Reds/Giants)
1:00
: How would I’m going about transitioning the “Clutch” stat to a “Clutch+”? Is it so simple as multiplying the present equation by 100?
1:00
Dan Szymborski: not REALLY
1:00
Dan Szymborski: you’d want a Clutch charge
1:00
Dan Szymborski: you then coudl do it
1:00
: Lets (very hypothetically) say that Reinsdorf hires a prime finish GM, offers him a prime 5 funds after which stays away from the entrance workplace. What’s the earliest the White Sox may make the playoffs once more?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: 2027?
1:01
: Based on the Fangraphs WAR Leaderboard, the White Sox have an mixture workforce WAR of 1.9, surpassing the entire of the 2003 Tigers at 1.7. In fact, that is nonetheless a piece in progress for Chicago as we are able to’t but account for the ultimate 1.5 months of a depleted roster going through off towards a bunch of contenders (Mets, Orioles, Purple Sox, Guardians, Padres, and Giants, per Davy’s article). Would you guess on the White Sox to complete with extra wins AND accrue extra complete WAR than the 2003 Tigers, would you? Dropping means chugging a blended up can of skyline chili.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: Wait, what do I get if I win?
1:01
Dan Szymborski: I’m not ingesting a chili smoothie on a detailed guess
1:01
: How do you venture defensive worth of prospects.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: erroneously for positive
1:01
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a TZ-esque measure for minor league protection
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I’ve the precise hit location of all balls hit within the minors and a probability-based methodology like David Pinto used to have
1:02
: You’ve stated that greater change = extra sign. What do you make of Tyler Fitzgerald’s energy?
1:02
Dan Szymborski: The advance ought to be fairly massive
1:03
Dan Szymborski: although his energy enhance hasn’t fairly matched the unerlying information
1:03
: Merrill is on observe for a 4+ battle season and Zips has 3-year projections of ~1.4 battle a yr. Is that due to a excessive BABIP/low stroll charge or simply the character of the beast?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s as a result of these are the preseason projections
1:03
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is clearly going to be fairly much more optimistic now
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Oh, ZiPS suggests 4/105 on Santander
1:05
: At what level does ZIPS principally quit and say, “I assume Decide is simply… this man now”
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Besides right here’s the factor – at his degree, the chance is *all* one aspect
1:05
Dan Szymborski: so even in case you assume a .700 SLG is his baseline, that doesn’t imply he’s equally as more likely to turn out to be an .800 SLG man as a .600 SLG man
1:06
: Kristian Campbell’s teammates are apparently calling him “Barry Bonds.” I assume I can dwell along with his being not fairly pretty much as good as Bonds, however ought to he be greater on prospect lists than he after the stretch he’s had in AA?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: He’s actually going to maneuver up fairly a bit by ZiPS
1:06
: Dan, have seen just a few mentions in articles recently about “X participant has elevated his bat pace by X mph and his numbers have jumped”.
1:06
: Dan, have seen just a few articles about “X participant has elevated his bat pace by X mph and his numbers have jumped” recently. Exterior of the apparent correlation that greater bat pace results in greater exit velocities, have you ever seen any work by way of in-season bat pace adjustments and whether or not they correlate to something significant? Are they statistically correlated to elevated outcomes? How lengthy does it take by way of time length to turn out to be sticky? What they regular baseline is for bat pace fluctuations and the way a lot deviance one must see to matter? Thanks!!
1:06
Dan Szymborski: It’s most likely good, however I believe folks leap the gun somewhat an excessive amount of
1:06
Dan Szymborski: now, bat pace correlates extremely with different issues that we DO know are predictive of higher outcomes
1:07
Dan Szymborski: however even with that extremely probably speculation, folks ought to be cautious direct claims with numbers
1:07
: Does ZIPS incorporate Statcast information? If not, is it possible as an avenue of enchancment sooner or later?
1:07
Dan Szymborski: Yup – I neglect off-hand that entered the primary mannequin, I believe 2019?
1:09
: If Ohtani hit ninth within the order as a substitute of first, how a lot WAR would he lose?
1:09
Dan Szymborski: About 20% of offensive WAR, assuming no different adjustments
1:10
: ESPN ran a narrative this morning about introducing a 6-inning minimal for beginning pitchers. What’s your most well-liked treatment (if any) to revive the prominence of the beginning pitcher?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: It’s a difficult factor to control, since you don’t desire a state of affairs by which you find yourself with extra accidents
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Although MLB has the correct concept, in that altering guidelines is without doubt one of the greatest basic methods to alter types of the sport
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Pizza Cutter wrote about it yesterday
1:12
Dan Szymborski: and it’s a topic I speak about
1:12
Dan Szymborski: (nto the innings change particularly)
1:12
: 1.3 WAR in 437 PA coming into the season and he’s at 1.4 WAR in 393
somebody’s gotta be in that fifty fifth percentile! (do they?)
1:12
Dan Szymborski: nicely, 1% of gamers would hopefully be exactly there!
1:13
: What occurred to Ryan Noda?
1:13
Dan Szymborski: He was a stopgappish kind 1B who had a pleasant little BABIP-aided run final yr and bought off to a horrible begin this yr
1:14
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS solely had him at 210/331/381 coming into the season and the opposite projectiosn weren’t that completely different
1:14
: Does ZiPS account for minor league struggles of a participant like Bobby Miller, or does it rely solely on previous MLB efficiency?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: it takes minors under consideration
1:14
Dan Szymborski: besides rehab
1:15
: Are we at an all-time low in veteran all time hitting greats..no less than so far as conventional stats are involved? Freddie Freeman is the lively chief in hits, runs, RBI..but ranks under one hundred and fortieth all time in every. Can’t resolve if that is regular or a bizarre one off.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: We’re positively pretty low in veteran hitters proper now
1:16
Dan Szymborski: There are solely 4 hitters 35 or older with one WAR this season: Santana, d’Arnaud, Rojas, J.D. Martinez
1:17
Dan Szymborski: so if in case you have fewer veteran guys, you’re going to haven’t as mny with lofty totals
1:17
: Function request, be happy to toss it within the trash. Fangraphs does their commerce worth collection and so they rank farm techniques, however I might love to only see each group ranked by surplus worth, main leaguers and minor leaguers collectively. Baseball commerce values kinda had one thing like this however they went behind a paywall, and I would like if ZiPS had been used.
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I would like to determine an automatic solution to do it
1:17
: Zips had Wyatt Langford .346 wOBA for yr. Wanting like precise will likely be decrease. Would you continue to guess future all-star?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: AN all-star look? Positive, although the upside has come down a bit
1:17
: Is Juan Soto extra more likely to age worse than common since he has “previous individual” expertise and his bat pace is under common?
1:18
Dan Szymborski: It’s fairly attainable, however bear in mind, these are percentages – younger participant expertise don’t essentially imply ageing nicely and vice versa
1:18
: if the Orioles had a greenback for each prime prospect callup who struck out 50% of the time in a brief first stint, they’d have no less than two {dollars}, which isn’t lots, nevertheless it’s bizarre that it occurred twice in a single yr. (it might be somewhat much less bizarre from the Rockies)
1:18
: somebody who desires to “name out” projection techniques for being too low on Decide ought to purpose at Steamer as a substitute of ZiPS, however I assume these guys don’t maintain weekly chats
1:18
Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually “do” projection wars
1:19
Dan Szymborski: I current my product, give as a lot data away as I can justify, and as a lot element of the mannequin as I can, and let outcomes communicate for themselves
1:20
: btw did the thought to replace these 1x/yr get anyplace?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I’m pondering of doing ASB subsequent yr
1:20
Dan Szymborski: or possibly July 1st
1:20
: Attention-grabbing about rehab. Do you simply ignore these stints? I all the time marvel what will be discovered from them, notably proper now whem Boston media is reporting breathlessly on Casas’s at-bats.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: I simply discover they create noise
1:20
: wait, who advised that person who juan soto has below-average bat pace
1:20
Dan Szymborski: i assumed that bat was a stray phrase added
1:20
: I’m going to be very unhappy when two of the three NL West groups need to face off within the WC spherical
1:20
: The Ides of August is the thirteenth. You’re two days late.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: OK, on that observe, it’s time fo rme to move out for an additional week
1:21
: Are there any gamers/prospects with extraordinarily bimodal future worth projections? One thing approaching “99% of the time they’ll be a utility man, however there’s a 1% likelihood they may truly be the subsequent Willie Mays”
1:22
Dan Szymborski: no one as large because the final two guys to be REALLY bimodal: Tanner Scott and Michael Kopech
Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, an everyday visitor on various radio exhibits and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
