Whether or not he intends to or not, Tadej Pogačar is a person who breaks information. His dominant win fee in every kind of races, from Grand Excursions to Monuments, has positioned him not solely on a number of pages of the metaphorical historical past books, however effectively inside the dialog of being probably the most profitable male rider of all time.
He is the primary rider to win a Monument 5 instances in a row, the primary man to face on the rostrum of all 5 Monuments in the identical season, and the primary to podium within the sport’s 10 most necessary stage races. This yr, he’s inside touching distant of matching the report of Tour de France GC victories, ought to he win his fifth and be part of the small, legendary group of five-time winners.
And on Monday, he took himself one place nearer to one of many sport’s most talked-about information, the Tour de France stage wins tally. Successful his twenty second Tour stage atop the climb to Les Angles on stage 3, he now ranks joint fifth within the listing of most prolific stage winners, joint with Andre Darrigade and behind solely André Leducq, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx and Mark Cavendish.
The present report belongs to Mark Cavendish, with 35 stage wins, which he set in 2024, lastly beating Eddy Merckx’s report of 34, which Cavendish had matched in 2021. Previous to 2024, Merckx had held the report since 1975, so for practically 40 years.
May Pogačar beat the report once more, only a few years after Cavendish lifted it by one? As of Monday, he has 22 phases to his title, 13 off Cavendish’s tally and 14 off an outright report.
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Now, 14 would possibly sound like a solution to go, however should you have a look at his win fee to this point, the phases per race he’d should win now to achieve 35 or 36 all-time wins, and certainly the variety of Excursions he is prone to race sooner or later, the report turns into a lot nearer – and clearly very achievable.
Present win fee
As of 2025, Pogačar had gained 21 phases in six editions of the Tour, giving him a mean win fee of three.5 per version. Solely in a single version has he gained fewer than three phases, the fateful ‚I am gone, I am lifeless‘ yr of 2023. Most ceaselessly he is gained three phases, in 2024 he gained six, and in 2025 he gained 4. So it is not loopy to recommend that he may go on profitable no less than three per yr.
How does that examine to the boys he’s up in opposition to within the historical past books? Pretty favourably, really. It is the identical stage win per yr common as Bernard Hinault (third within the rankings of most stage wins, with 28) and effectively above André Leducq and André Darrigade, the boys he is set to leapfrog fairly rapidly within the standings.
Crucially, 3.5 wins per version can be a stable one win per version greater than the present outright report holder Mark Cavendish, who gained 36 phases, however took 15 editions to do it. Pogačar is far more environment friendly.
Merckx has the best win fee, attaining his 34 wins in simply seven editions, however that does include the slight caveat (aside from the standard ‚it was a unique time‘) that the Excursions of Merckx’s period typically had greater than 21 phases, as a result of they might characteristic a prologue plus cut up days with a stage A and B, however for the needs of information every is counted as a win. In 1974, for instance, there have been 27 stage wins up for grabs, in comparison with a strict 21 as of late.
What to learn subsequent
So what does this win fee imply for the longer term? If he carries on at a mean of three.5 wins per yr, then Pogačar will end the 2029 Tour with 35 wins, matching Cavendish’s present report. Another Tour, or yet another win right here or there, and he may definitely beat it earlier than he turns 32.
However, if current historical past is something to go by, Pogačar as of late is able to profitable far more than three phases per yr. If he wins 4 this yr and within the subsequent editions, he’d attain 33 in 2028 and break the report in 2029. Make it 5 or 6 per yr, which he achieved in each the Giro d’Italia and the Tour in 2024, and he’ll have the report within the bag in 2028.
The primary query, in fact, is what number of phases Pogačar will win, however there’s additionally a query of how lengthy he’ll go on for. His present contract runs till 2030, and regardless of his occasional grumble about perhaps stopping earlier, maybe after the 2028 Olympics or the potential Slovenian Grand Départ in 2029, he and the workforce have stated he’ll honour that contract.
However going a lot past 2030 does appear pretty unlikely, with UAE head of efficiency just lately telling us that he in all probability will not race into his mid-30s, and that his retirement can be „sooner than different athletes have historically finished prior to now“. So most certainly, Pogačar has this Tour and possibly 4 extra to chase the stage wins report.
One other solution to examine Pogačar’s present statistics to the report holders he’s up in opposition to is to take a look at age, and the graph under reveals what number of Tour stage wins every rider had achieved once they turned 28 (that is the age Pogačar will flip later this summer time, so his variety of wins will virtually definitely be larger as soon as his birthday really arrives). So by this metric, once more, Pogačar is doing fairly effectively, he is on monitor with the riders he’s competing in opposition to.
Nevertheless, that is maybe really the least helpful metric to take a look at, as a result of while Pogačar began profitable youthful, as we stated his profession can be prone to be shorter. Cavendish rode his final Tour at 39, for instance – Pogačar will solely be 31 in July 2030. Merckx is maybe probably the most comparable comparability: he gained his first stage at 24, his final at 30, and rode his final Tour at 32.
Does he care?
Numbers, statistics and projections apart, there may be one other issue that’s a lot much less attainable to plot on a graph: motivation.
Up to now, the Slovenian has not been a person who – outwardly no less than – is especially obsessed or pushed by information. For Mark Cavendish, it was a relentless query, and really clear at a sure level that 34, after which 35, was just about his central motivation for racing so long as he did, feeling inside attain of that report.
Now, Pogačar is clearly nonetheless a lot additional off the report, it is not as urgently shut because it grew to become for Cavendish, however is it on his thoughts in any respect? Even on Monday, he appeared to attempt to dispel the concept he’s obsessive about wins.
„That is nonetheless fairly far-off,“ Pogačar stated when requested about Cavendish’s report. „Perhaps right this moment was my final victory ever, so I favor to remain within the second, take pleasure in this victory. Each victory feels very particular, and if we will have extra moments like yesterday, I am going to even be grateful.
„Up to now my profession is already past my wildest creativeness, so yeah, I do not need to take into consideration Mark’s report. Simply float and see what we will do sooner or later, however yeah, if right this moment is my final victory, I am blissful sufficient.“
Pogačar completed second on stage 2, serving to Del Toro to win as an alternative of himself (Picture credit score: Getty Pictures)
‚Gifting away‘ the stage win on stage 2 probably confirms that narrative, as absolutely a person obsessive about a win tally would seize each victory he may, not hand some off to teammates. However there is also a way of safety with Pogačar: he is aware of he can provide away a win right here and there, as a result of his win fee can be excessive sufficient as it’s.
Personally, I do not assume it is an obsession or a driving pressure simply but, however the extra information Pogačar ticks off, like if he reaches yellow jersey quantity 5 or 6, the possibility to turn out to be the stage win report holder too will turn out to be increasingly tantalising. It simply relies upon if he can get shut sufficient earlier than he needs to hold up his wheels all collectively.
The ten biggest victories of Tadej Pogačar’s profession
Having spent a yr deep-diving on Pogačar’s profession for a brand new e-book, Andy McGrath picks out 10 of the wins which have outlined his profession to this point
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