Alex Bregman Down, Marcelo Mayer Up, Red Sox Still Middling

This isn’t the corporate the Purple Sox hoped they’d be holding. Once they face off towards the Brewers tonight, they’ll be making an attempt to keep away from becoming a member of the Rockies, White Sox, Pirates, and Rays as the one groups in baseball with three separate shedding streaks of no less than 4 video games this season. Boston presently sits fourth within the AL East and a couple of 1/2 video games out of the ultimate Wild Card spot. In accordance with our playoff odds, the Purple Sox have seen their postseason likelihood fall by greater than half since Opening Day, dropping from 56.2% to 25.3%. Solely the Braves, Orioles, and Rangers have had an even bigger decline.

Boston’s most up-to-date win additionally supplied its largest lack of the season up to now. When Alex Bregman signed again in February, there was each cause to consider that the Inexperienced Monster can be his finest good friend. His sport is designed round lifting the ball to the pull aspect, and he’s already bounced 5 doubles and a single off the wall on the fly, to go along with three homers launched over it. However the Monster betrayed Bregman on Friday. Within the first sport of a would-be doubleheader towards the Orioles (the second sport was postponed, and Saturday grew to become a doubleheader as an alternative), Bregman scorched a single that short-hopped the wall, however as he chopped his steps to again off an aggressive flip, one thing seemed off.

“I used to be rounding first base and digging to go to second and I type of felt my quad seize, so I didn’t proceed operating to second base for the double,” Bregman mentioned. “I simply type of stopped and got here again to the bag so I wouldn’t make it any worse. After I felt it, I knew I wanted to return out and see the coach.” Bregman left the sport with proper quad tightness, telling reporters that he initially feared that the harm is perhaps extra extreme, however that he felt extra optimistic after the sport and hoped he might keep away from an IL journey. “Hopefully, I sleep good and it feels nice,” he mentioned. “We’ll simply see the way it presents and take the subsequent step there, simply type of observe the coaching workers, their lead. However proper now, it’s simply quad tightness.”

Bregman didn’t sleep good. Ache from the quad stored him up through the night time, and an MRI on Saturday morning revealed a “fairly extreme” pressure. Bregman in contrast it to the left quad pressure he suffered in 2021. That pressure stored him out 69 days, from June 17 to April 25. In case the Purple Sox are on the lookout for comfort, Bregman seemed like himself upon his return that season, operating 115 wRC+ earlier than the harm and a 112 wRC+ (with higher exit velocity numbers) after he got here again. However that’s chilly consolation. With a 160 wRC+ this season, Bregman has been the group’s finest participant, and he’ll be out for no less than two months.

It’s arduous to overstate how tough a blow that is for Bregman. His 2.5 WAR ranked eleventh amongst all place gamers. With a .404 wOBA, he was off to the perfect begin of his total profession on the plate. By enjoying so nicely, he was additionally giving himself an opportunity to train the primary opt-out in his three-year contract and get the possibility on the long-term deal that he’d needed all alongside. That could be off the desk now.

Dropping Bregman additionally put a damper on what ought to have been a celebration, because the group referred to as up Marcelo Mayer, the second member of its Huge Three prospects, to fill in. Mayer arrived at Fenway Park between video games on Saturday, pushed from Worcester to Boston by a clubhouse attendant. He misplaced his keys someplace on the ballpark three weeks earlier and “by no means cared to search for them till I wanted to.” So yeah, Mayer is unquestionably 22 years outdated. He began at third base that night time, a place he had performed professionally simply six instances earlier than.

Mayer is a consensus top-100 prospect with authentic energy. Within the post-spring coaching replace to our High 100 Prospects record, Eric Longenhagen pegged him at quantity 30, on the prime of the 50 future worth tier. When contemplating Mayer right this moment in mild of the call-up, Eric let me know that he’d upgraded Mayer to a 55 – that means Mayer went from the FV of an on a regular basis participant to an above-average common – and pushed him to 14th on the Board. Eric has typically been the low man on Mayer due to his issue dealing with delicate stuff on the backside of the zone. Right here’s what he wrote again in February, when he ranked Mayer 57th:

All through his total profession, he has carried out despite these points, however they proceed to terrify me. Marcelo’s entrance aspect is so upright all through his swing that it makes it almost unattainable for him to dip and scoop delicate stuff on the backside of the strike zone and under. He can completely button a fastball, however large league pitchers aren’t going to indicate him lots of these if he retains performing like he has towards secondaries. Simply how stark is the distinction? Mayer had an 87% contact fee towards fastballs final yr, and a 57% contact fee towards breaking balls.

Earlier than his call-up, Mayer was operating a 115 wRC+ at Triple-A Worcester, with a stroll fee above 10% and a strikeout fee under 20%. Nonetheless, a 115 wRC+ in Triple-A doesn’t translate to above-average efficiency within the majors, and we will additionally do a reasonably easy breakdown.

Mayer was a bit higher at shedding breaking and offspeed pitches in Worcester this season, which helped him make extra contact, however it’s very clearly nonetheless his weak spot. He had only a .222 wOBA towards offspeed stuff.

Mayer has a 54 wRC+ in his first three video games with the Purple Sox, going 3-for-12 with a double, no walks, and three strikeouts. To date, 52.9% of the pitches he’s seen have been fastballs or cutters, just some share factors under the league common. You need to think about that fee will tick down some. “I don’t assume his points towards delicate stuff are so unhealthy that he’s susceptible to busting,” Eric advised me, “however I do assume sooner or later large league pitchers will drive him to enhance towards them.” The ability is actual, although. Mentioned Eric, “If my grade finally ends up being mild and it seems he’s really a constant All-Star, it’ll be due to how a lot energy he accesses on contact.”

As for his protection, Mayer is a shortstop by commerce, and he has additionally spent a small period of time at second. Eric put a forty five/50 grade on his protection. He doesn’t have nice vary or arm energy, however he’s obtained wonderful fingers and actions, and that ought to give him an opportunity to stay on the place long run. Earlier than Bregman’s harm, shortstop was Boston’s main weak level. Since signing with the Purple Sox forward of the 2022 season, Trevor Story hasn’t been capable of keep on the sector or carry out when he’s on it. He’s performed in 52 video games this season, already the second most of his tenure with the Purple Sox, however as Jay Jaffe documented final week, Story has put up -0.2 WAR, because of a 62 wRC+ and ugly defensive metrics. Mayer did play some quick on Sunday, as Boston gave Story the time without work within the hopes that he might reset himself.

Even earlier than the season began, it was clear that the Purple Sox wanted a plan for relieving Story of his duties, and Mayer it. Though he’d by no means been fully dominant, he’d hit at each cease of the minors, his ascent slowed solely by a collection of nagging accidents. This season, he was hitting nicely in Worcester, however not nicely sufficient to drive the problem. He in all probability might have used extra time, however Bregman’s harm pressured the problem for him, and its severity possible signifies that Mayer shall be enjoying day by day whether or not he’s prepared or not. If he can’t preserve his head above water, Bregman’s harm may very well be the defining function of the Purple Sox’ season.

The harm provides one other layer of intrigue to a Boston infield that has seen far an excessive amount of of it in latest months. Rafael Devers can be the plain candidate to fill in at third base, the place he’s held down for the Purple Sox ever for the reason that group referred to as him up in July 2017, however supervisor Alex Cora has made it clear that that gained’t occur. It’s been roughly three weeks since first baseman Triston Casas went down with a ruptured patella tendon, reigniting the firestorm of controversy that began again in February. To recap: The Purple Sox had been adamant that Devers would keep at third base it doesn’t matter what, then requested him to maneuver to DH two days after signing Bregman. A harm Devers refused and went to the media, then backed down and have become the perfect DH within the American League. When Casas obtained harm, the Sox requested Devers to be taught first base on the fly; he as soon as once more refused and went public. They went as far as to usher in proprietor John Henry to speak Devers down, however publicly no less than, there have been no additional developments. On Saturday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that Devers hadn’t taken grounders in three weeks.

Within the meantime, Kristian Campbell has been working towards at first base, although the group says he gained’t be able to play there any time quickly. To make issues worse, Campbell has seemed misplaced on the plate. After making the Opening Day roster regardless of ugly spring coaching numbers, Campbell began his main league profession on a tear and shortly signed an eight-year extension. He charged out of the gate with a 17-game on-base streak and ran a 163 wRC+ via April 29. Since April 30, although, Campbell has a wRC+ of -26, with simply eight hits in 19 video games. His stroll fee has dropped by roughly 14 share factors, and his strikeout fee has climbed by 4. His protection has additionally graded out very poorly, particularly in keeping with DRS, which has him at -8, tied for fourth worst amongst all gamers, no matter place.

In all, the Purple Sox have gotten a best-in-baseball 2.8 WAR from their third base place, to go along with -0.5 from the opposite infield spots, third worst within the majors. Bregman was singlehandedly holding the infield in the midst of the pack, however with out him, the dust is a gaping black gap. Boston has additionally been very vocal about its intention to maintain Masataka Yoshida on the IL till his shoulder is wholesome sufficient that he can throw with none restrictions, even supposing he’s able to hit now, he’s not defender, and there’s no house for him within the outfield anyway. In different phrases, even when the group had been prepared to let Devers play third for the subsequent couple months – shifting Campbell to first and Mayers to second – it wouldn’t make a lot of a distinction as a result of with out Yoshida, it wouldn’t have a greater bat to insert into the lineup at DH.

For now, the Purple Sox shall be relying closely on Mayer and Campbell, two 22-year-old rookies with all of 210 large league plate appearances between them. Everybody who pays consideration to the Purple Sox spent your complete offseason questioning when Campbell, Mayer, and naturally Roman Anthony would make their option to the intense lights and large expectations of Fenway Park. After ready impatiently for years, the long run has come way more instantly than anybody would have preferred.