Beasts From the East, Again: Red Sox vs. Yankees AL Wild Card Preview

For the third time previously eight seasons, and the sixth time since 1999, one of many recreation’s most storied rivalries has spilled over into the playoffs. Within the matchup of the highest two AL Wild Card seeds, the Yankees (94-68) host the Crimson Sox (89-73) for a best-of-three sequence at Yankee Stadium. Although they received 11 of their final 12 to erase a five-game lead within the AL East by the Blue Jays, the Yankees misplaced their season sequence tiebreaker to Toronto, 8-5, bumping them into the Wild Card spherical, making their highway to return to the World Collection that a lot more durable.

The Crimson Sox have taken the previous three postseason matchups between the 2 golf equipment, most just lately beating the Yankees within the 2021 AL Wild Card Sport at Fenway Park and earlier than that the 2018 Division Collection. It’s important to dial again to 2003 for the final time the Yankees defeated the Crimson Sox in October — with present supervisor Aaron Boone hitting a walk-off homer off Tim Wakefield to ship New York to the World Collection.

When it comes to more moderen and considerably extra related historical past, the Crimson Sox did win the season sequence, 9-4, and took seven out of 9 at Yankee Stadium. That stated, the Yankees received three of the ultimate 4 video games between the 2 groups.

Rotations

Regardless of shedding half of final 12 months’s postseason rotation — Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt — to Tommy John surgical procedure, the Yankees enter October with a robust set of starters. Fried was nearly all the pieces they may have hoped for once they signed him to an eight-year, $218 million deal in December; he tied Rodón for the AL’s second-highest innings complete, behind Crochet, whereas rating third in FIP and WAR and fourth in ERA. The 31-year-old lefty put up these spectacular numbers regardless of an unsightly month-and-a-half stretch in July and the primary half of August, when he was lit for a 6.80 ERA; a blister on his left index finger, which value him one outing after the All-Star break, contributed to that tough string of begins. He’s been lights out since then, with a 1.55 ERA and a couple of.32 FIP in his final seven turns (46 1/3 innings).

Fried posted a reverse platoon break up for the third season in a row. He considerably revamped his strategy upon coming to the Yankees, enjoying down his four-seamer and as an alternative making his cutter his bread-and-butter pitch towards righties (he threw it to them 31.9% of the time and held them to a .278 wOBA) and his sinker his go-to towards lefties (38.5% of the time, .297 wOBA). His four-seamer nonetheless hummed together with a median velo of 95.8 mph, up two clicks from final 12 months. Although he threw it simply 12.4% of the time, the factor of shock helped increase its whiff price from 17.8% to 25.1%. The cutter, which averaged 93.8 mph, ranked second amongst all starters in Statcast run worth (12). The person can combine his pitches, throwing six totally different choices — a curve, sweeper, and changeup are the others — at the least 9.8% of the time to batters of each arms. The curve and changeup have been his only pitches towards righties, producing wOBAs of .229 and .227, respectively; the previous generated a 39.8% whiff price towards them. Lefties knocked across the cutter however have been practically helpless towards the sweeper (.222 wOBA, 43.9% whiff price) and curve (.172 wOBA, 52.9% whiff price).

Although his strikeout and stroll charges inched within the improper instructions, the 32-year-old Rodón lower his residence run price by over a 3rd (from 1.59 per 9 final 12 months) to show in his greatest season in pinstripes. He too benefited from a revamped arsenal, including a sinker towards lefties. He threw the pitch, which averaged 91.9 mph (in comparison with 94.1 mph for the four-seamer) to lefties 31.9% of the time, holding them to a .208 wOBA with a 31.9% whiff price. Those self same-side hitters didn’t do a lot towards both his slider or four-seamer, each of which he threw about as typically because the sinker; the previous held lefties to a .208 wOBA with a 44.9% whiff price. In opposition to righties he threw the four-seamer 45.1% of the time, offsetting that with a devastating slider (.195 wOBA, 38.3% whiff price) and changeup (.221 wOBA, 35.3% whiff price).

With Luis Gil beginning on Sunday and thus solely out there on this sequence on quick relaxation, and with rookie Will Warren having been torched for a 9.42 ERA in three begins towards the Crimson Sox, the decision for a possible Sport 3 will as an alternative go to Schlittler, a 24-year-old righty who didn’t debut till July 9. A seventh-round decide in 2022 out of Northeastern College, Schlittler entered the 12 months as a 45-FV prospect with simply 1 2/3 innings above Double-A, however the mixture of sturdy work first at Somerset after which Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre helped him stage as much as a 50 FV. With accidents to Schmidt, Gil, and Ryan Yarbrough, and poor performances from Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco, a spot opened up for Schlittler within the rotation through the summer season, and he greater than held his personal. Often grazing 100 mph along with his four-seamer and averaging a crisp 98.0 mph, the pitch held hitters to a .273 wOBA with a 27.7% whiff price. In opposition to righties he offset that with a really efficient cutter (.192 wOBA, 26.3% whiff price) and a much less efficient sinker, curve, and sweeper. Lefties managed a .354 wOBA towards the cutter however whiffed 28.1% of the time; his curve, nonetheless, was a very efficient secondary pitch (.296 wOBA, 23.6% whiff price) in these matchups.

Acquired from the White Sox in a five-player blockbuster final December, the 26-year-old Crochet was the true ace the Crimson Sox wanted him to be. He made his second straight All-Star group and led the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts (255), whereas shaving a run off final 12 months’s ERA. The probably runner-up to Tarik Skubal within the AL Cy Younger voting, Crochet ranked second solely to the Tigers lefty in strikeout price, xERA, FIP, and WAR, and third in ERA behind Skubal and Hunter Brown.

Crochet presents distinctive velocity for a southpaw; the 96.4-mph common for his four-seamer ranked third within the majors behind solely Skubal and Jesús Luzardo, whereas the 96-mph common for his sinker trailed solely Skubal. He dominated lefties whereas throwing the sinker extra typically than the four-seamer (36.6% vs. 24.3%), but it surely was his cutter (23.4%) and sweeper (15.8%) that have been much more efficient; same-handed hitters managed only a .169 wOBA towards the cutter and an .091 wOBA towards the sweeper, with whiff charges of practically 38% on each. Righties made way more onerous contact towards his four-seamer, slugging .478 with a median exit velo of 93 mph, 8.4 mph increased than lefties. His largest weapon towards them is his sweeper, which he threw 16% of the time and which held them to a .165 wOBA and 41.3% whiff price.

The drop-off from Crochet to Boston’s two different probably starters is appreciable. The 26-year-old Bello ranked ninth within the AL in ERA regardless of lacking comparatively few bats; his strikeout price ranked twenty third out of 26 AL qualifiers, and his 9.2% strikeout-walk differential was useless final. With a five-pitch combine — sinker, four-seamer, sweeper, cutter, and changeup (used nearly solely towards lefties) — he generated the league’s fourth-highest groundball price and did an excellent job of limiting onerous contact, along with his common exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit charges all inserting within the 60s, percentile-wise.

Lucas Giolito was initially anticipated to begin Sport 3 for the Crimson Sox, however supervisor Alex Cora introduced Monday throughout his press convention that Giolito is coping with an elbow situation and won’t be on the Wild Card Collection roster. Cora has but to anoint a substitute, however Kyle Harrison and Connelly Early, a pair of 23-year-old lefties, each completed the season within the rotation and are thought of to be the highest candidates. They might each be on at the least 5 days of relaxation forward of Thursday’s if-necessary recreation, although below the circumstances I wouldn’t count on both to be on a protracted leash.

Early, a 2023 fifth-round select of Virginia, is a 6-foot-3 lefty who will get nearly seven ft of extension, serving to his fastball — which averaged 94.0 mph in his 4 turns — play up. Small-sample caveats apply all through, however batters hit for only a .186 wOBA towards it whereas whiffing on 29.3% of their swings. Again in June, Early was ranked the ninth-best prospect within the Crimson Sox system with a forty five+ FV, and his slider and changeup acquired 60-FV grades from Eric Longenhagen; in his transient main league expertise, Early has used his curve extra typically than both pitch, and fairly successfully. Whereas the slider was knocked round, he threw a sweeper solely to lefties and held them to a .000 wOBA and 100% whiff price with the pitch, albeit on simply 10 swings in seven plate appearances.

Harrison, who made 35 begins for the Giants from 2023–25 earlier than being acquired within the Devers commerce, entered final season at no. 27 on our High 100 Prospects checklist with a 55-FV grade. He scuffled in 24 begins totaling 124 1/3 innings in 2024, posting a 4.56 ERA, a 4.36 FIP, and a 22.2% strikeout price. In his restricted main league time this season, his fastball gained a little bit of zip (from 92.4 mph to 93.0 with the Crimson Sox), and he began throwing a cutter 11% of the time. Final week, David Laurila wrote about Harrison’s changes since becoming a member of the Crimson Sox, who optioned him to the minors following the commerce earlier than recalling him earlier this month. In three video games (two begins) with Boston consisting of 12 innings, Harrison has a 3.00 ERA and a 2.47 FIP. That’s an extremely small pattern measurement, but when the Crimson Sox flip to him for Sport 3 and this really is a brand new and improved model of Harrison, that will be a significant increase for Boston.

Bullpens

Common supervisor Brian Cashman targeted on upgrading the Yankees bullpen forward of the July 31 commerce deadline, buying Bednar, Doval, and Jake Chook, however as with the December commerce for Williams, the outcomes have been blended at greatest. The unit has managed only a 4.74 ERA and 4.07 FIP since August 1, with Bednar rising as a robust nearer and Williams pitching higher in a setup position, with a 5.73 ERA and three.95 FIP earlier than the deadline and a 4.35 ERA and a couple of.07 FIP after. Nonetheless, issues haven’t been fairly of late, with Hill’s 4.15 ERA since August 1 rating second on the group and each different reliever other than Bednar with at the least 10 innings over the ultimate two months carrying a mark of 4.50 or increased. In case you’re searching for the Yankees’ Achilles heel, you’ve discovered it.

In all chance, Hill would be the solely lefty reliever the Yankees carry; he held lefties to a .198 wOBA this season, however righties managed a .351 mark towards him. Of the righty relievers, Bednar was the best towards lefties, with a .233 wOBA allowed together with his time in Pittsburgh, the place he was equally efficient. Weaver was superb towards lefties, with a .247 wOBA allowed, with Cruz (.302), Williams (.305), and Leiter (.308) all stable in that context.

(For the desk above, I included the stats for relievers with their new groups solely, in order to provide a greater sense of the present bullpen pecking order.)

Bednar transformed 10 out of 13 save alternatives for the Yankees, with two of these three blown saves coming in his first 4 outings following his commerce to New York; he has simply two earned runs throughout his final 14 appearances (15 1/3 innings, 1.17 ERA) relationship again to August 22. He makes use of a three-pitch combine towards batters of both handedness, with a four-seamer that averaged 97.0 mph, a curve, and a splitter; the 2 secondaries ate lefties alive whereas additionally producing whiff charges above 40% towards righties.

Williams’ trademark Airbender changeup wasn’t as efficient as in years previous, but it surely nonetheless held batters to a .259 wOBA with a 37.3% whiff price. As Baumann explored in early September, Williams has significantly struggled with males on base (his 55.2% LOB price is the bottom amongst certified relievers), largely as a result of batters have been unusually profitable when chasing his pitches with a person on first, an enormous downside given the elevated site visitors he’s produced by yielding more durable contact. Weaver, who seemingly got here out of nowhere to grow to be Boone’s go-to reliever final season, hasn’t been as sharp or as efficient, with a spike in residence run price (from 1.07 per 9 to 1.39) his main situation. He’s now under Williams on the high-leverage reliever depth chart, usually the seventh-inning man. It’s price questioning why Weaver largely deserted his cutter, which was a helpful third pitch. Cruz has supplanted Leiter and Doval because the Yankees’ high middle-innings righty, able to large strikeouts thanks largely to a nasty splitter that held hitters to a .234 wOBA with a significant league-best 56.6% whiff price.

The Crimson Sox have a transparent benefit right here, as their bullpen posted the AL’s lowest ERA (3.41) and residential run price (0.77 per 9), in addition to the second-lowest FIP (3.69). Chapman had quite a bit to do with that dominance. The 37-year-old transformed 32 of 34 save possibilities, posted a career-best ERA, and ran his lowest FIP since 2016. He’s acquired extra pitches in his repertoire than the common nearer, and that’s not simply because his four-seamer now averages 98.4 mph, which isn’t as daunting because the triple-digit warmth he as soon as unleashed constantly; he’s now throwing a sinker about one-third of the time (extra to righties than lefties). The sinker averaged 99.4 mph whereas producing the upper whiff price of the 2 pitches (35.5% vs. 28.8%). In the meantime, his slider and splitter generated whiff charges within the 40s. Mercy.

Usually talking, righties Weissert, Slaten, and Whitlock are the high-leverage sixth-, seventh-, and eighth-inning guys, respectively, with Matz (a deadline acquisition) and Wilson the highest two lefties. Restricted to 4 begins final 12 months by UCL inner brace surgical procedure, Whitlock moved again to full-time bullpen obligation and posted a career-best 31.1% strikeout price; his 31.1% whiff price on his sinker was the majors’ second highest. Slaten, who emerged as an efficient reliever for the Crimson Sox final 12 months, missed half the season attributable to shoulder irritation and has been roughed up for a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 innings since returning in late August. He’s acquired a high-spin four-seamer that averages 96.7 mph with a .208 wOBA and a 26.5% whiff price, however his curveball went from being a weapon final 12 months to a legal responsibility this season, along with his strikeout price on the pitch plummeting from 25.9% to 18.2% whereas his stroll and residential run charges rose. Like Whitlock and Chapman, Weissert can be a former Yankee. He averaged simply 94 mph along with his four-seamer this 12 months, but it surely held hitters to a .258 wOBA and a 21.8% whiff price. He mixes that in with a sinker, slider, sweeper, curve and changeup to various levels towards each righties and lefties.

As regards to handedness, Matz held lefties to a .253 wOBA, whereas Wilson restricted them to a .261 mark, however the Crimson Sox righties have been nearly as efficient, or much more so, towards lefties, with Whitlock (.236 wOBA), Slaten (.239), and Weissert (.273) higher when going through opposite-handed hitters than their Yankees counterparts. Chapman, after all, was completely devastating (.174 wOBA) towards lefties.

Offenses

The Yankees had the majors’ most potent offense, and it wasn’t only a matter of the quick porch in proper discipline, as they really scored barely much less typically (5.01 runs per recreation) and hit two fewer homers at residence than on the highway. They’re led by Aaron Choose, who grew to become the tallest batting champion ever this 12 months and received the slash-stat Triple Crown whereas batting .331/.457/.688 for a 205 wRC+, the fourth-highest of any right-handed hitter in AL/NL historical past. (Choose’s 2024 and ’22 seasons have been even increased.) He additionally hit 53 residence runs which — sheesh — was merely his third-highest complete for a single season.

This isn’t a one-man present, nonetheless; the Yankees grew to become the 14th group in AL/NL historical past with at the least seven gamers hitting 20 homers, with middle fielder Trent Grisham (34), third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), left fielder Cody Bellinger (29), first baseman/catcher Ben Rice (26), designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (24), and catcher Austin Wells (21) reaching the plateau as properly, and shortstop Anthony Volpe (19) simply lacking out. 5 gamers in addition to Choose posted a 125 wRC+ or increased, specifically Stanton (.273/.350/.594/, 158 wRC+), Rice (.255/.337/.499, 133 wRC+), Grisham (.235/.348/.464, 129 wRC+), Chisholm (.242/.332/.481, 126 wRC+), and Bellinger (.272/.334/.480, 125 wRC+), with Chisholm including 31 steals, making him considered one of a document seven gamers to go 30/30 this season.

Although the Yankees offense confirmed solely a minimal platoon break up this season, the lineup does lean closely left-handed, with Choose, Stanton, and Volpe the one righties from among the many aforementioned group. Boone stated on Monday that he would begin Paul Goldschmidt at first base and bench Rice towards the lefty Crochet in Sport 1, with Wells getting the nod behind the plate over Rice due to his superior protection and rapport with Fried; the Yankees went with the Fried-Rice battery solely as soon as this 12 months, final week in Fried’s closing regular-season begin. The 38-year-old Goldschmidt completely raked towards lefties (.336/.411/.570, 169 wRC+) this 12 months however slipped into unplayability versus righties (.247/.289/.329, 74 wRC+); a proper knee sprain from mid-August may have one thing to do along with his woes towards righties, although he’s had vital platoon splits in latest seasons.

Boone has different levers he can pull as properly. He can put Bellinger — who was higher towards lefties than righties this 12 months and is mainly platoon-neutral for his profession — in middle and use righty Austin Slater in left, and he can put righty Amed Rosario at third base instead of lefty Ryan McMahon, who produced only a 44 wRC+ towards lefties between Colorado and New York. With Volpe, who hit an abysmal .211/.271/.392 (83 wRC+), hampered by {a partially} torn left labrum, he may also swap in José Caballero, who led the majors with 48 steals whereas batting .236/.338/.348 (97 wRC+) in simply 368 plate appearances, at shortstop. Even so, Volpe has been higher since getting two cortisone pictures to alleviate the ache in his shoulder — .289/.325/.368 for a 96 wRC+ — albeit in a small pattern of 40 plate appearances. Boone has indicated that he loves having Caballero out there off the bench due to his velocity and flexibility, and if he doesn’t begin, he’s the tactical option to run for Stanton or Goldschmidt late within the recreation. Jasson Domínguez, who hit a modest .257/.331/.388 (103 wRC+), has recently fallen out of favor — making simply 4 begins in September — however he stole 23 bases this season and could possibly be used off the bench for the same function.

The Crimson Sox offense ranked third within the AL in scoring, however they owe a few of that to sequencing and their ballpark; they produced only a modest 103 wRC+, tied for fifth within the junior circuit. Notably, Boston is lacking 21-year-old phenom Roman Anthony, who hit for a 139 wRC+ in 71 video games however has but to return to baseball exercise after straining his indirect in early September. With out him, and with Rafael Devers lengthy gone, the highest on a regular basis Crimson Sox hitter is third baseman Alex Bregman, who hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+). Neither left fielder Jarren Duran (.256/.332/.442, 111 wRC+) nor shortstop Trevor Story (.263/.308/.433, 101 wRC+) had significantly sturdy years on the plate, although every participant produced stretches of excellence. Designated hitter Masataka Yoshida (.266/.307/.388, 88 wRC+) was downright awful for many of the season, however he produced a 126 wRC+ in September and may characteristic prominently in Boston’s lineup towards righties. Heart fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (.249/.295/.413, 92 wRC+) and catcher Carlos Narváez (.241/.306/.419, 97 wRC+) are defensive standouts who can maintain their very own offensively.

Boston has shored up a few weaknesses recently. Nathaniel Lowe has solved the group’s ongoing first base downside, hitting .280/.370/.419 (113 wRC+) since being launched by the Nationals and picked up by the Crimson Sox in mid-August. Proper fielder Wilyer Abreu (.247/.319/.469, 110 wRC+) just lately returned from a month-long absence attributable to a proper calf pressure; he’s the lengthy half of a platoon with righty Rob Refsnyder, who has hit .298/.397/.561 (159 wRC+) towards lefties. Romy Gonzalez, who recently has served because the on a regular basis second baseman — one other spot that has been an ongoing downside for Boston — hit for a 162 wRC+ towards lefties, although only a 95 wRC+ towards righties.

Defenses

Other than their catchers, who ranked third within the majors in our catcher framing metric, FRM (13.4), and fifth in Statcast’s extra complete FRV (12), the Yankees have been middle-of-the-pack defensively, rating seventh within the AL in FRV (7), and eighth in DRS (29). Wells drove these standout catcher numbers, rating fourth within the majors in FRM (10.0), and tying for fourth in FRV (11). Chisholm at second and McMahon at third have been the infield’s standouts, each a couple of runs above common by the metrics. Volpe, whose protection was beforehand his calling card, was a blended bag metrically (-5 FRV, 1 DRS), with throwing points, some uncharacteristic hesitancy on grounders, and a few obvious psychological lapses. Between Tampa Bay and New York, Caballero was superb at shortstop in a 336-inning pattern (4 FRV, 4 DRS).

Bellinger unfold his time throughout the three outfield spots, with the plurality of his innings left discipline, which in Yankee Stadium usually requires a middle field-caliber fly chaser; he had 12 DRS and 9 FRV as an outfielder. As Davy Andrews wrote a couple of weeks in the past, Bellinger had his second-best season of his profession, with improved defensive metrics contributing significantly to his general worth. Grisham could also be a bit stretched in middle lately (-12 DRS, -3 FRV); coming into 2025, who would have thought his bat would supply the higher justification for taking part in him forward of Domínguez, who was an absolute legal responsibility in left (-9 FRV, -7 DRS)? Choose, whose 822 1/3 innings in proper discipline have been his most on the place since 2021, was superb (5 FRV, 3 DRS). Nevertheless, his throwing hasn’t been the identical since he strained his proper flexor tendon in late July, which confined him to DH-only obligation in his first month again; he performed 15 video games in proper in September. He’s much less of an issue on the market than Stanton, who in simply 97 innings was three runs under common by each FRV and DRS and can almost definitely return to strictly DHing through the postseason.

The Crimson Sox ranked sixth within the AL in FRV (19), DRS (34), and FRM (1.7). Rafaela is an elite defender who led all main league middle fielders in each DRS (22) and FRV (21). Likewise, Abreu captured at the least a share of second in each metrics (15 DRS, 8 FRV) regardless of enjoying simply 847 innings in proper discipline, over 400 fewer than Fernando Tatis Jr. (15 DRS, 10 FRV). Narváez ranked seventh amongst all catchers in FRV (9), with sturdy showings in each framing and throwing; he was a extra modest sixteenth in FRM (2.0). Gonzalez was comfortably average-ish in 288 innings at second, inferior to the lighter-hitting David Hamilton however an unlimited enchancment from the early-season Kristian Campbell experiment. Duran had blended metrics (11 DRS, -1 FRV). Throughout the lineup’s present configuration, Lowe was subpar at first base by way of his season’s work with Washington and Boston (-4 FRV, -4 DRS), however essentially the most obvious weak point is Story, who ranked among the many backside 5 shortstop regulars in each (-7 DRS, -8 FRV).

General, the Yankees’ edge in beginning pitching and offense, in addition to home-field benefit, makes them a heavy favourite in line with our game-by-game ZiPS odds. With Giolito beforehand penciled in for Sport 3, the chances favored the Yankees, about 65% to 35%, and people aren’t anticipated to maneuver a lot in what’s going to probably quantity to a bullpen recreation. That stated, the Crimson Sox have a substantial benefit with regards to the 2 groups’ bullpens. If they will pressure New York’s starters to work quick, this sequence may flip in Boston’s favor. At this level, that will hardly shock anybody — particularly Yankees followers.