2:01
: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat
2:01
: I don’t have a ton of baseball-y stuff to speak about at this time, although I’m hoping that adjustments in every week’s time or so when winter conferences warmth up
2:01
: however let’s simply get proper into it and perhaps get some seize bag subjects in too
2:01
: Do you suppose the Snell signing could make Sasaki much less prone to go to Dodgers given they’ve sufficient rotation depth/expertise to simply ship him down if he struggles?
2:02
: Eh… on the margin, sure. However ‘oh the Dodgers undoubtedly have sufficient beginning pitching’ has by no means been guess
2:02
: I anticipate them to go six man rotation, I anticipate them to take care of a ton of accidents as a result of they at all times do, there will likely be innings for him even when he struggles
2:03
: Ideas on the Boyd signing? Are the Cubs trying to flip him?
2:04
: I don’t suppose that signing somebody hoping to flip them makes a ton of sense, significantly for a group just like the Cubs with playoff aspirations. I do suppose that they’re making an attempt to get out in entrance of the market in a lot teh identical means the Mets did with Montas
2:04
: They want innings, and so they most likely didn’t need to be attempting to find them in January or February
2:04
: That mentioned, the worth tag isn’t nothing for a man who was accessible without cost final yr. I believe I might have appeared elsewhere, personally, although I’m not wildly assured in that view
2:04
: It looks as if pitching is at the very least reasonably dearer than we thought it was going to be. Do you anticipate this that means that any kind of mlb-ready cost-controlled pitching may deliver again extra in trades than perhaps we’re used to?
2:05
: One factor that is still to be seen is whether or not it’s pitching or all free brokers
2:05
: The primary few offers have been coming in above my estimates and the gang as effectively
2:06
: It’s attention-grabbing, I spent a very long time making an attempt to trim my estimates right down to even decrease than they ended up. I’ve some forcing features within the background that attempt to restrict the general quantity of spending per win, in order that I don’t get too caught up in comps and market analysis and find yourself with a projection that’s means off of what you’d anticipate from prior years
2:06
: and that perform saved telling me to chop estimates based mostly on what we noticed previously few years. I ended up principally ignoring it and coming in fairly far above what it will counsel. Guess I ought to have ignored it much more
2:07
: I don’t suppose it’ll have an effect on the commerce market all that a lot as a result of pitchers had been already very beneficial in commerce, I believe that’ll simply proceed
2:07
: I’m positive you’ve seen the ‘Yanks are topping out at $550mm for Soto and he already has a number of $600mm affords in hand’ report by now. Do you purchase it, and can the Yankees remorse (lol) letting Soto go to the Crimson Sox (for instance) for $600mm?
2:07
: I don’t purchase it
2:08
: Like I’m positive somebody mentioned that to a reporter, or one thing related
2:08
: however I doubt it’s set in stone and even the present scenario on the bottom
2:08
: like perhaps they supplied 10/550? however this seems like a deal they aren’t going to lose for cash’s sake
2:08
: Chaim Bloom’s 2021-23 drafts had been wonderful high-ceiling expertise grabs adopted by sturdy improvement. He gained’t be there when the Crimson Sox ascend, however do you suppose the success they’ll possible have will quickly get him one other job on the prime of an org? Gracias.
2:08
: I do! Possibly, I dunno, the Cardinals? 🙂
2:08
: 2025 Cardinals – one final wholehearted attempt for Mozeliak, or a yr for Bloom to start out enacting a retool? Gamers sensible pondering principally if Arenado and Sonny Grey stick with the Membership.
2:09
: I’m leaning extra in direction of the retool. You don’t herald Chaim Bloom to stay with the identical previous plan of buying and selling for main league producers and whatnot
2:10
: I’m undecided what which means for Arenado, it positive seems like he desires out but it surely seems like a difficult commerce. Grey, then again: I believe he’ll be gone in the event that they’re retooling as a result of he’s on a brief deal at an affordable worth
2:10
: that’s the sort of commerce package deal that each group is searching for
2:10
: Do all (most) gamers have brokers? Even the blokes making minimal, Quad A, and so forth.?
2:10
: Is it tougher to pitch Aaron Choose up as a result of with the intention to get the ball excessive sufficient you must throw what is often a waste pitch and that’s simply bizarre to do on objective?
2:11
: Identical to it’s simpler to pitch Altuve up
2:11
: then again, it’s loads simpler to assault Choose low for mainly the identical cause
2:11
: and he will get too many strikes known as on him low within the zone as a result of umpires have the identical challenge
2:11
: Im taking part in a sport of rooster with groups on Garrett Crochet. Am I good for ready for the large SP and Soto to go off the board earlier than I deal my ace or am I simply limiting my choices if the Dodgers/Crimson Sox/Orioles/and so forth signal pitchers in free company as a substitute?
2:12
: I’m typically a fan of setting a worth and ready to both have it hit or for somebody to get determined earlier than altering techniques
2:12
: there isn’t sufficient pitching to go round, significantly for groups who aren’t dropping 150 million on a free agent, so I believe the market will stay sturdy regardless of the place the highest guys signal
2:12
: Let me begin by saying I don’t need a wage cap. BUT is there a method to encourage non-Dodger groups to get artistic with their contract affords as effectively? Is it solely the Dodgers’ need to flout the posh tax that conjures up them?
2:12
: The Nationals have been doing this for greater than a decade
2:13
: the A’s supplied Marcus Semien essentially the most insulting contract of all time however in a goofily structured means
2:13
: one yr, $10 million, however paid in 10 $1 million installments over 10 years
2:14
: the Dodgers don’t have a monopoly on bizarre, deferred-y offers. however actually, the deferred isn’t serving to them out THAT a lot, it’s the truth that they’re keen to spend to win
2:14
: like they’re nonetheless setting apart $46 million a yr for Ohtani
2:15
: do you suppose the Boyd and Montas signings make the Kikuchi deal look any higher?
2:15
: I believe that each pitching deal has comein above ‘consensus’ and it’s completely plossible that almost all offers do, now that the financial image feels rather less unsettled than a yr in the past
2:15
: Will the Dodgers be restricted by all of the deferred cash they’ll be paying subsequent decade? Or will the financial realities of baseball enable them to mainly shrug it off?
2:15
: I don’t, due to the best way the escrow works
2:16
: they don’t get to simply not take into consideration the cash till the long run, they’re required to set an NPV’ed quantity apart within the yr it’s earned
2:16
: so that they’re setting apart a bunch of cash proper now. I’m not 100% positive what investments are allowed with that cash, however they must pony it up now, which suggests they’re not going to abruptly must pay out $100 million out of nowhere in 2030 or no matter
2:17
: it appears extremely prone to me that on account of declining media income affords to mid-range free brokers are going to be fewer and smaller than gamers and brokers have come to anticipate. What’s your view?
2:17
: I assumed that earlier than the offeseason
2:17
: that actually was the case within the 2024 offseason
2:17
: I suppose we’ll see. however Frankie Montas and Matt Boyd really feel very mid-range to me, and so they each acquired good offers
2:18
: Shouldn’t the worth start to drop for beginning pitching? They’re throwing fewer innings and turning it over sooner to the bullpen.
2:18
: The worth per WAR hasn’t modified a lot, so I suppose what you’re saying is already taking place
2:19
: but it surely’s tough, as a result of wage is as a lot about shortage as worth, and good beginning pitching is scarce as of late
2:19
: Wouldn’t the Yankees be higher off letting Soto stroll and filling roster holes with different free brokers so Choose can transfer over to a nook?
2:19
: what free brokers
2:20
: like, they’re gonna go signal Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres?
2:20
: I believe that will most likely value extra per yr than Soto will
2:20
: do you truly suppose that offense can be higher than one with Soto and a prospect? I positive don’t
2:21
: why can’t Choose transfer to a nook even with Soto on the town anyway?
2:21
: I’d be making an attempt Dominguez out in middle for positive
2:21
: Which FanGraphs festive mild colors are you utilizing?
2:21
: I’m liking the traditional ones
2:21
: the A’s lights look kinda cool, however I identical to common christmas colours
2:21
: There have been rumblings in regards to the Phillies making an attempt to get out from below the Nick Castellanos contract. Is there a damaged-goods commerce that will line up for the Phillies and another accomplice to maneuver him out of city?
2:22
: How do you see the Phillies “shaking up” their roster? I’ve heard Bohm tossed round as a commerce piece, however aside from him who may you see them transferring?
2:22
: I’m skeptical that the Phillies could make a Castellanos commerce work, as a result of most groups are valuing him at roughly 0
2:22
: like, league common hitter with fully unplayable protection
2:23
: so both they’re going to eat a lot of the cash, at which level why are we doing this commerce within the first place, or they’re going to ship out a prospect with him, and that feels prefer it wouldn’t occur given the best way Philly has operated lately
2:23
: Bohm is smart to me as a commerce piece in the event that they’re intent on shaking issues up, however they may additionally simply run issues again. It was a fairly good group in 2024, you realize?
2:24
: Can an Arenado to the Phillies commerce work?
2:25
: I don’ suppose the Cardinals can be enthusiastic about Bohm, as a result of the entire level of transferring on from Arenado can be to take a step again for the subsequent few years. Mayyyyybe you possibly can get the Castellanos contract out the door, plus a prospect or two, for Arenado, however that will simply be window dressing (i.e. you possibly can select between the Cardinals protecting $30 million of Arenado’s deal and buying and selling them Castellanos and the $40 million he’s owed)
2:26
: So I’d say it’s not unattainable however relies on discovering worth for Bohm elsewhere
2:26
: I’ve heard commerce rumors for the Tigers (Arenado, Bohm), however is there any practical commerce that the Tigers may make that will make extra sense than simply signing Bregman or Christian Walker so that they don’t must bat Matt Vierling third anymore?
2:26
: yeah I like Walker there fairly a bit
2:26
: Not so into Bregman, to be trustworthy, I really feel like his swing and Comerica wouldn’t be buddies
2:27
: I need to do my greatest by the Giants, however I don’t have the Dodgers cash and that i don’t have their mind belief. Any means I can dislodge them from first within the subsequent years?
2:27
: I’m skeptical
2:27
: I hope I’m mistaken, SF is extra enjoyable when the Giants are good
2:28
: we haven’t actually seen a lot of the Posey regime but, I’ll withhold judgment for a yr or so till we see what their MO is, however the Giants have been fairly uninspired lately after whiffing on just a few huge free brokers, and it feels robust to repair that shortly
2:28
: How do the market dynamics fluctuate between pitching (~everybody can use one other pitcher, however there are various accessible) vs particular positions (perhaps only some groups want a catching improve however there are only a few choices accessible)
2:29
: oh, good query. I believe it makes for a first-one-in-wins mentality within the place participant case, the place there are significant differencdes in what somebody will give you based mostly on while you signal and who’s nonetheless wanting. Pitcher salaries are much more static/fungible, as a result of if the Mets don’t signal you the Yankees would possibly, or whatnot
2:30
: that places extra stress on the brokers of the place gamers whose spots aren’t assured however are doubtlessly mnore beneficial. Whereas being an agent for a starter might be loads about calling each group and displaying that your man is wholesome/working laborious
2:30
: What’s the very best vacation dish?
2:30
: I truly don’t suppose that is all that shut
2:30
: I like numerous vacation dishes, however I crave stuffing
2:31
: we made some this yr and I devoured it in report time
2:31
: it’s fairly enjoyable to make, additionally
2:31
: Over/below Brewers’ NL Central division wins within the subsequent 3 years: 2.5?
2:31
: simple below for me
2:31
: not as a result of I believe they’re in a foul spot, however b/c 2.5 out of three is simply too excessive
2:32
: at 2 I’m torn, I believe I’d most likely nonetheless take the below however I’d really feel dangerous about it
2:32
: Is ATL sort of screwed? They’ve at the very least three holes to fill (LF/SP/RP) and perhaps extra for those who don’t suppose Ozzie will bounce again (second basemen age horribly) or if Arcia doesn’t enhance. They’ve cash to spend but it surely’s not an enormous quantity in the event that they need to keep away from penalties (round $30 million). Their farm system isn’t significantly deep and lots of of their greatest prospects undertaking to be again finish starters or reduction pitchers.
2:33
: the Braves had a very ridiculous variety of accidents final yr, together with the reigning MVP and Cy Younger favourite, to not point out a number of different All Stars. BP’s harm tracker has them down for 13 lacking WAR final yr, vs. a league common of round 5
2:33
: so will they be nearly as good as they had been in 2023? most likely not
2:33
: however will we undertaking them as the very best group within the NLE once more? nearly actually
2:34
: Arcia is dangerous for a primary division shortstop, and Albies may be extra good than elite now (I’ve truly had him in that vary for years, witness his slide down the commerce worth collection)
2:35
: however they simply have a ton of excellent gamers nonetheless. I’d anticipate extra in ’25 out of Riley and Harris, I actually like Schwellenbach and I believe AJSS has some juice
2:35
: I agreed with you numerous till you thought that stuffing was higher than pecan pie. What a brutal take.
2:35
: pecan pie is my favourite pie
2:35
: I’m only a savory over candy sort of particular person
2:35
: angels want both a 3B or a 2B. any probability they will poach HSK from san diego?
2:35
: yeah, this feels very cheap to me
2:35
: I believe that Kim’s market goes to go considered one of two methods
2:36
: one is that he picks a group the place he’s snug to signal a pillow contract. Possibly the Giants? One thing west coast most likely
2:36
: Angels aren’t out of the query right here both
2:36
: or: somebody actually desires him and they also provide him a pleasant five-year deal
2:36
: and he simply says eh, pillow contracts are overrated, let’s simply safe the bag now
2:37
: that second choice, I believe a group doing that will roughly assure signing him, whereas if he’s signing 2/40 with an decide out after the primary yr, a ton of groups would provide him that
2:37
: so if you wish to assure Kim’s companies, you provide him a long-term deal. If you happen to’re snug taking a threat that he’ll signal somehwere else based mostly on match, enter the pillow contract sweepstakes
2:37
: “Any pie is an efficient pie”
2:38
: oh man, has anybody had the frozen pies from Ace {Hardware}?
2:38
: I didn’t know this was a factor after which I picked one up for this Thanksgiving as a result of I used to be doing an Ace run (snow shovel, some random wrench) and remembered that they’ve a freezer close to the checkout
2:38
: I discovered from my neighbor that this can be a widespread factor at Ace places, and the pie was completely wonderful
2:38
: like, perhaps the very best apple pie I’ve ever had
2:39
: If Eric isn’t round and anyone asks you what Triple-A catcher, Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin, you like. What do you say?
2:39
: I’d most likely make a Drake pun first
2:41
: however I want Baldwin, I’m a bit extra keen to consider his batting line given the peripherals and whereas I don’t have a ton of visibility into minor league catcher protection, they appear comparable there
2:41
: Some experiences at this time that the NYM are enthusiastic about Walker Buehler. I like playing on him in a vacuum, however are they actually going to hit on WB and Montas in the identical season the best way they did with Sevi and Manaea? Looks like an excessive amount of threat.
2:41
: I’d truly argue that it’s a threat mitigation technique
2:41
: positive, typically you possibly can hit on each signing and issues work out nice, however typically talking, signing extra lottery tickets will increase the probabilities of hitting on at the very least one
2:42
: there’s obivously some contract quantity the place it switches to being draw back threat since you’re paying him as if he’s going to be elite
2:42
: however that’s harder to evaluate, and I don’t suppose Buehler is gonna get that quantity
2:42
: Have you ever ever given a present that you just’re nonetheless pleased with?
2:43
: I’m gonna point out a present my spouse gave first, as a result of it was simply that superior: for her mother’s seventieth, she acquired 70 individuals to jot down messages and put all of them in a e-book collectively
2:43
: that was a fantastic one, I assumed
2:44
: not counting that: I acquired my spouse a set of knives in 2015 that we nonetheless love at this time, and so they’ve been extremely helpful the entire time, so I’ll say that
2:44
: If the Yankees lose out on Soto, how a lot would Bellinger assist them?
2:44
: not a lot, imo
2:45
: I’ll say, I’m decrease on Bellinger than consensus
2:45
: he was in my prime 50 provisionally when it appeared like he would possibly decide out and I acquired numerous feedback that I had him too low
2:46
: I believe that loads of individuals consider he’s a 20% above common bat who can play a superb middle area, whereas I believe he’s a mean bat and common outfield defender
2:46
: So if he DOESN’T get Soto after he’s spent a number of years speaking up his spending, is that thought-about an actual ding? (Clearly not on his total tenure)
2:46
: If it’s due to an absence of a severe provide, sure
2:47
: if it’s as a result of he and the Yankees each provide 13/700 and Soto desires to hang around together with his buddy Aaron, effectively, I believe it relies on how laborious the Mets pitched him
2:47
: however nothing about this pursuit, and his pursuit of free brokers typically, has made me suppose that Cohen is unserious about getting the very best gamers
2:47
: RE: Sasaki to the DodgersI nonetheless suppose they’ve a shot, but it surely’s unquestionably tougher to promote him on going there when, in an ideal world, he would seem like the odd man out within the playoff rotation. I’d think about he wouldn’t be in over Snell, Glasnow, Yamamoto, or Ohtani. In order that brings me to my level, do you consider the Snell signing means they nonetheless very a lot consider they may get him? Or they didn’t belive they had been going to get him within the first place?
2:48
: Yeah, that’s honest. I believe it’s extra the second, that they weren’t positive if they might get him – how may they be? They usually additionally weren’t positive if he’d be an affect arm in 2025. so that they’re simply making an attempt to win a bunch now, as a result of that appears good
2:48
: take the deal in entrance of you and take care of tomorrow tomorrow, that kidn of factor
2:48
: hoenstly I believe the Dodgers are so well-run that it’s nearly un-fun
2:49
: they make the choices I might make on a strategic entrance loads of the time, and after they do one thing I wouldn’t have finished, I ceaselessly discover that I favored their alternative after the very fact
2:49
: If Soto finally ends up staying partially as a result of he likes taking part in with that huge man, on prime of Choose simply casually throwing up a second 11fWAR season, how not horrible is that Choose contract?
2:49
: yeah the Choose deal is wanting like fairly a discount to this point, amazingly sufficient
2:50
: he’s already cranked out 16 WAR since signing it, captured an MVP, dragged the group to an ALE win
2:50
: How dangerous are the Yankees’ vibes going to be when Soto indicators with the Mets or Crimson Sox?
2:50
: Dodgers and escrow – I had not heard about this earlier than. I do know that the Dodgers get hit with an-NPV like hit to their luxurious cap quantity. For Ohtani, is the escrow the identical as that roughly $46 million cap hit?
2:51
: yeah roughly. Right here’s a pleasant little Gemini abstract, shout out to Google
2:51
:
hen to put aside: Groups should begin allocating the deferred cash by the second July 1 after the season it was owed. For instance, if a participant is deferring $68 million in 2024, the group should totally fund the current worth of that cash by July 2026.
put aside: Groups can allocate the cash in money, shares, or “unencumbered belongings”. The league and union can even agree on an alternate kind.
Who holds the cash: The cash is held on behalf of the participant and can’t be accessed.
Curiosity: The group can earn curiosity on the cash, which they will spend.
2:51
: With the caveat that no person actually is aware of but, are you able to say which is extra suspect in pitcher accidents: elevated velocity or emphasis on spin charges?
2:51
: i feel it’s sort of a hybrid of those – it’s the rate on the flexible pitches
2:52
: 91 mph sliders are laborious on the arm on a number of fronts
2:52
: You suppose the angels will go after any extra starters? Primarily based on Perry’s feedback it seems like Anderson or Detmers will likely be dealt and so they’ll herald one other arm
2:53
: I do – perhaps somebody within the Pivetta/Sevy tier?
2:53
: I don’t suppose Anderson has a lot of a commerce market. not that his contract is underwater, simply that he’s extra of a ‘commerce this man for a prospect on the deadline when a group has an harm drawback’ choice as a substitute of a ‘swap him for speedy main league assist in January’ choice
2:54
: Detmers may get them one thing useful immediately, so in the event that they need to transfer him, they’d discover takers
2:54
: Or perhaps it’s as a result of Soto desires to spend time together with his even higher buddy Vlad did u consider that Ben??
2:54
: dwelling in Toronto does sound fairly n ice
2:54
: I’d undoubtedly have an interest. I’d even settle for lower than Soto
2:54
: Is Thairo Estrada simply finished? Feels just like the Giants gave up on him early.
2:55
: I’m undecided he’s finished, however: I’ve been a vendor for years, I simply don’t fairly see how he can ship above common worth with out one thing important altering
2:56
: I don’t suppose his protection is nearly as good because it was graded in 2023, his offense is definitely at the very least a bit under common, I’ve him as a second division common or good utility man
2:56
: perhaps the Giants gave up on that a bit early however I don’t suppose he’ll receives a commission greater than his arb award would have been, and he actually didn’t really feel like a long run answer to me, so I see why they moved on
2:57
: Do you purchase the Boras narrative that Chicago winds suppressed Bellinger final yr and he can be a purchase low if he was dealt someplace?
2:58
: one one that most likely agrees with me: Cody Bellinger, who selected to stay on the Cubs as a substitute of testing free company
2:58
: Is plossible a mixture of attainable and believable? If that’s the case, I prefer it
2:58
: it wasn’t presupposed to be however now I’m with you
2:58
: Is there a negotiating universe the place Cohen simply tells Boras ‘we’ll give Soto $600mm or match regardless of the highest provide is’? It seems like that’s an Uncle Steve sort of transfer.
2:58
: I believe that’s pretty possible, in truth
2:59
: that’s how the Ohtani and Choose negotiations apparently went down; the Giants supplied these guys the precise offers they acquired elsewhere
2:59
: There’s a story in NYC that claims that Luisangel Acuna was “bored” within the minors and that’s why he didn’t carry out higher. I discover it very tough to consider. You?
2:59
: Yeah, I don’t purchase it
2:59
: or effectively, if that’s the case, we now have a very completely different drawback
2:59
: Occam’s razor right here, for me, although
3:00
: You’re GM Ben Clemens of the Yankees/Crimson Sox/Dodgers/Blue Jays/ different group severe about Soto. At what monetary level do you simply say it’s an excessive amount of cash and let him go someplace else?
3:00
: In all probability relies upon extra on possession, to be trustworthy, and the way these groups assemble budgets
3:01
: I believe that round 13/700 I’d be telling my proprietor that this deal doesn’t make monetary sense, however I determine if I’m a GM I’m going to be ceaselessly asking the proprietor to spend extra and compete extra ceaselessly, so this would appear like time to push that message
3:02
: Am I loopy to have Wyatt Langford as a prime ten place participant in fantasy subsequent yr?
3:02
: High ten appears a bit aggressive
3:02
: however increased than he completed this yr by bit, for positive
3:02
: Out of the Jays’ return for Kikuchi — Wagner, Loperfido, and Bloss — who will produce essentially the most worth within the close to future … and past?
3:03
: at this level I assume Wagner is wanting fairly good. However gimme Bloss, I talked myself into him when he began hopping ranges in Houston final yr
3:03
: the Wagner throw-in was a fantastic transfer by Toronto
3:03
: Concerning “we’ll match regardless of the highest provide is”, do groups truly know what the very best affords are? Looks like they’re all left at midnight to numerous levels and solely Soto’s group is aware of. I assume Soto’s group may inform you what their highest provide is, however would you consider them? Or are FA negotiations pretty clear?
3:03
: In truth, I’m undecided
3:04
: My guess is that Boras and most brokers are pretty truthful about this, although
3:04
: It’s a repeated sport, and for those who get caught mendacity as soon as, the prices in future rounds of negotiation are huoge
3:05
: profit-maximizing conduct in a one-round negotiation may be to lie, however belief feels essential to Boras’s means to do his job effectively
3:05
: What do you imply that Nick Castellanos isn’t defender?! His fielding percentages are unbelievable!
3:05
: I’ve truly by no means dedicated an error in skilled baseball
3:05
: for what it’s price
3:05
: I recall a dialogue of a reduction pitcher who was out of choices and this was placed on waivers to let the group name up a brisker arm. The participant was claimed by a second group who pitcher him for just a few weeks earlier than they did the identical factor and a 3rd group claimed him. It was talked about the participant was accruing service time however does a participant at this degree ever find yourself signing a free agent deal or do they have an inclination to retire/signal a minor league do as soon as they’re not eligible for this type of roster shuffling?
3:06
: Oh yeah, the blokes on this scenario aren’t reaping free company wealth
3:06
: that mentioned, the service time issues for issues like pensions and arbitration
3:06
: additionally, they’re getting paid a significant league wage whereas they accrue service time, which isn’t any joke
3:07
: the Triple-A minimal this yr was 35,800. MLB minimal was 740k
3:07
: What sort of cash adjustments arms of Arenado is traded? Does the Rockies cash observe him?
3:07
: oh hey I simply seen that Arenado had 50 million deferred in his deal
3:07
: look, everyone seems to be the Dodgers now
3:08
: the Rockies cash would observe him, although. the Rockies are paying $4 million of his wage every year, and so they’d simply proceed to do this
3:08
: Residing in Toronto from April 1st via October thirty first looks as if a perfect plan. And spend the winter someplace a lot hotter.
3:08
: I’m not a winter particular person, and I believe it’s guess that Juan Soto isn’t both
3:09
: Miami offseason house? simple
3:09
: Ought to MLB change the best way the offseason works? decide up steam sooner? Feels just like the draft lottery ought to have occurred already.
3:09
: I believe it’s arrange fairly effectively, however I do suppose there needs to be a transaction freeze for many of November in order that issues actually begin cooking across the winter conferences
3:10
: Yainer Diaz or Patrick Bailey?
3:10
: for fantasy? Diaz. For actual life? Bailey
3:11
: I’m only a huge sucker for catcher protection, and Bailey is the very best there’s there
3:11
: Did the LAD make sufficient cash on promoting and advertising and marketing offers with Japanese companies that they’re basically not paying Ohtani’s ~$45M out of the standard funds?
3:11
: If Soto indicators with the Crimson Sox, Yankees signal Walker & Bregman, Jays signal Santander & Manaea. What’s your rating of the AL East groups?
3:11
: I believe I’d go Yankees/Sox/Jays, however with error bars larger than the variations between groups
3:12
: Are there sufficient upgrades on the commerce and free agent markets to make the Nationals a contender in 2025?
3:12
: I imply, positive
3:12
: give them Soto, Bregman, Burnes, perhaps Teo and two different starters, bam
3:12
: realistically no, although?
3:12
: do u suppose renting just about simply at all times smarter than homeownership rn
3:13
: Context-dependent
3:13
: in huge cities, nearly actually sure, although
3:13
: rental yield is so low in SF, it will be fairly costly to personal my place as a substitute of renting it
3:13
: Is Pecan Pie pronounced pecan or pecan?
3:13
: I’m a ‘peh-con’ man
3:14
: I believe this can be a regional deal, although I’m not 100% positive
3:14
: Besides you will be pressured out of your residence by hire will increase yearly in case your residence isn’t hire stabilized (supply: dwell in NYC)
3:15
: I imply, positive. however housing in NYC is pretty fungible, you possibly can hire one other place. that mentioned, in my expertise an enormous quantity of NYC housing is hire managed, or at the very least a number of of the locations I lived there have been, even in newer buildings
3:15
: rental yields in NY are within the 2-3% vary from what I’ve seen, that’s wild
3:15
: I do know it’s principally simply noise, however has anybody finished analysis into participant success in even or odd years? Matt Olson’s yearly wRC+ graph appears just like the Mammoth Mountain emblem.
3:16
: this seems like a job for Dan, however I haven’t seen any impact and doubt it’s actual
3:16
: Housing isn’t fungible in case you have a household, man. You’ll be able to’t transfer your youngsters yearly.
3:17
: effectively positive, however rental will increase of say 10% a yr usually are not significantly widespread both, and also you may be paying double to have a mortgage as a substitute of hire for a similar place. Clearly there are a ton of various elements, and a baseball author isn’t going to resolve the issue in his chat, however from a value effectiveness standpoint, I’ve been comfortable renting in excessive value of dwelling cities
3:17
: Josh Allen for Shohei Ohtani who says no?
3:17
: throwing a landing go to your self does really feel like an Ohtani-ish feat
3:18
: Hire or purchase is a math drawback. Albeit with numerous variables which are both unknown or very unsure.
3:18
: Will Soto’s contract be insured? Is it attainable to insure a contract like that?
3:18
: most likely for harm and never for anything
3:18
: How a lot would a group pay a man who may remedy any harm immediately? Is that price $20 million a yr? Asking for a good friend
3:18
: simply, proper?
3:18
: the Dodgers would pay that for positive
3:18
: If the group is depositing the current worth and they’re allowed to spend the curiosity then as soon as the long run turns into the current they are going to be brief by the distinction between the unique current worth and the paper worth.
3:19
: I don’t know the specifics of teh CBA, however I’d guess that it must be trued as much as current worth occasionally
3:19
: and which you could spend the distinction
3:19
: that’s how I’d do it, at the very least
3:19
: alright, this was a enjoyable chat and it ran a bit longer than I anticipated
3:19
: who knew everybody wnated to listen to my housing sizzling takes?
3:19
: that mentioned, maintain your eyes peeled for one more article on classes I discovered in monetary markets and the way they apply to baseball
3:19
: ETA tomorrow, I believe
3:20
: and have a beautiful week, everybody
3:20
: On the housing entrance: I purchased in 2021 at ~3% curiosity and would love to maneuver, however really feel golden handcuffed to my present low mortgage fee. Isn’t there some monetary instrument that will enable somebody to tackle my EV+ low curiosity mortgage and let me recoup among the prices of what can be the next hire / mortgage fee?
3:20
: ooh bonus final one
3:20
: some scandinavian nation has transferable mortgages
3:20
: Shoutout to Edwin Burton in that case
3:20
: i took his class!
3:20
: cya later, everybody
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He will be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
