2:00
: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.
2:01
: I’ll attempt to get to as many questions as doable as we speak, however I’m additionally going to attempt to keep away from double-dipping on gamers, so if I don’t reply yours, there’s an honest likelihood that I have already got. There are solely so many free brokers and already so many groups, I’ll in all probability get to all of them.
2:01
: What was your projection for Shane Bieber earlier than he stayed with the Jays? How stunned have been you?
2:01
: how a lot you guess for bieber
2:01
: Thx in your excellent work! Please make sense of the Flaherty and Bieber possibility selections. Extensions? Harm?
2:02
: So, I had each Flaherty and Bieber on the checklist earlier than they every opted in, although I really had neither on my first move b/c I assumed they have been each maintaining their offers, then added them in b/c they appeared fairly cuspy
2:02
: all the time higher to mannequin, supply, and challenge somebody for those who’re in between, so we put each of them in. My “will this man choose out” mannequin is only a tiny subset of the contract mannequin and mentioned each of them wouldn’t, however the early rumblings have been in any other case, and I undoubtedly assume each have been shut
2:03
: I had Flaherty accepting a QO, so solely barely greater than he obtained, and I had Bieber getting the identical deal as Woodruff, 2/17, 34 whole
2:03
: I assumed Flaherty could be incentivized to choose out to clear the QO, however I suppose given how flat his market was final yr even and not using a QO, perhaps it simply wasn’t definitely worth the threat
2:04
: I really thougth about marking Woodruff’s deal down after Bieber opted again in. As you may see within the checklist, I’m decrease than the market on Woodruff; I projected him as getting more cash than the ten free brokers I put in entrance of him
2:04
: I simply actually don’t discover shopping for post-injury starters in free company that compelling this yr
2:04
: For those who’re the Mets would you favor giving Tucker the massive contract or Alonso 5/$150. I feel long run shifting Soto or Nimmo to 1B to enhance protection at 1B after which changing them with tucker who’s not less than common in OF looks like one thing that matches into the “run prevention” message Stearns has talked about they usually don’t lose that a lot if any offensive manufacturing by letting Alonso stroll.
2:04
: concentrating on run prevention by signing Kyle Tucker would actually be one thing
2:05
: Truthfully, if I have been GM’ing I feel I’d in all probability need another person to win the Tucker bidding
2:05
: My mannequin is extra like 10/275 for him, however it doesn’t do high of market premium that properly, so I threw in a ton of cash there as a result of the primary identify appears to get lots of helium
2:06
: mainly I actually like Tucker however I don’t assume I’d anticipate him to out-hit Alonso subsequent yr
2:06
: and signing a man who’s common in an outfield nook simply doesn’t matter to me defensively
2:06
: I feel the groups who go all out for Tucker will really need an outfielder, particularly, not a 1B
2:07
: that’s how I’m fascinated by it, not less than
2:07
: Re: Bregman, do you see it as a straight 4/140, or do you assume there are deferrals once more bringing his AAV down. The 4/140 would really be growing his AAV on an extended deal, regardless of being a yr older and lacking 1/3 of the yr to harm.
2:08
: Straight. I feel that he’ll get a increase, sure. Final yr’s felt like a pillow deal nearly. I additionally assume that the Sox are in a troublesome negotiating place right here, and it might behoove them so as to add infield power in a market the place that’s removed from straightforward
2:08
: What did your mannequin have on the Ha-Seong Kim opt-out? Appeared like one of many extra up within the air ones amongst place gamers
2:08
: yeah, cuspy as properly
2:08
: I threw him on the checklist as a result of there was lots of smoke from writers about him opting out
2:09
: It felt just like the form of factor the place it was sourced anonymously, certain, however many instances by many individuals
2:09
: Which of Gallen, King, & Woodruff will get essentially the most years. Do all of them get a short-term, opt-out fashion deal?
2:09
: I feel King is gonna take the QO
2:09
: I feel it’d make sense for everybody, actually
2:10
: And I’ve each Gallen and Woodruff getting two years, however I’d be much more enthusiastic about extending to a 3rd yr for Gallen if it was a case of needing to face out from teh crowd to get the deal carried out
2:10
: I’m simply fearful of Woodruff’s decline in stuff. Like, it was actually unhealthy, and even with that, he pitched for a little bit bit and obtained damage once more. I feel it’s important to bake in some very actual threat of catastrophic decline. I feel the draw back with Gallen might be embarrassing fourth starter, whereas the draw back with Woodruff is he by no means performs for you
2:10
: The Orioles might use Harrison Bader for one yr whereas Enrique Bradfield Jr. continues to develop in AAA. However they may not want him past that, not less than as a daily in CF. What are the probabilities they might frontload the two/30 give you’re estimating, with one thing like 18M the primary yr and 12M the second? That approach it’d be simpler to commerce him if wanted, or justify maintaining him as a 4th OF in 2027. How would a participant really feel about that form of construction?
2:11
: Gamers could be very proud of this construction
2:11
: It’s more cash! Upfront!
2:11
: That mentioned, it’s a reasonably small distinction within the grand scheme of issues. In the event that they resolve to commerce him subsequent yr, they might simply connect cash to make the identical factor occur
2:12
: In the event that they have been bumping up in opposition to the cap, or planning on doing so subsequent yr, then perhaps you may get some shenanigans round the best way the cut up yeras are thought of if he’s traded after one. However mainly I’d say for those who would signal him to 18 y1 12y2, you have to be blissful to do 15/15
2:13
: Please sir, can the Pirates please goal a hitter or two this yr. And in the event that they have been to magically do that, who do you assume could be their finest targets
2:13
: Ben – nice novel… err article.
Would the MLBPA or brokers ever recommend going to a sure group for a pillow contract to benefit from a stadium (ie hitters park for hitters, and many others). It certain looks like my Pirates get a LOT of LHPs in FA.
2:14
: I assumed these have been fairly satisfying as a pair
2:15
: If the Pirates needed to signal a hitter, I assume thye’d perhaps need a nook outfielder? You’ll be able to’t be proud of Jack Suwinski there, and I doubt they’re going to maneuver on from Horwitz or Yorke immediately on the infield. In the meantime, an excellent shortstop prices greater than the Pirates will ever pay, in order that’s out, and this yr isn’t an ideal marketplace for them anyway
2:15
: so like…. Bader? He might play a plus nook, and that’s very good in spacious PNC
2:16
: failing that, I truthfully don’t see lots of choices. THere are lots of meh bats that the Pirates may finally signal, that’s their MO, however I don’t assume they’re nice matches for a lot of high gamers this yr
2:17
: Trying again at lots of the signings and extensions, or lack thereof, of the Cubs the previous a number of seasons, I get a powerful sense that the Ricketts household believes there’s going to be a piece stoppage and potential main restructuring of the MLB labor panorama in 2027. Do you assume there are particular groups which might be approaching this offseason with specific thoughts to subsequent yr’s CBA negotiations? Do you assume there are some groups in place to benefit from different groups lack of willingness to interact in long run offers? In that case, who?
2:17
: I imply, certainly, proper?
2:17
: I feel that ‘no group is contemplating subsequent yr’s CBA negotiations’ is a very unrealistic place
2:18
: As for what which means — properly, strive as I’d, I haven’t but gotten groups to ship me a spreadsheet of their actual greenback preferences and the way they range based mostly on otehr offers they make
2:18
: so I’ll accept ‘the market can be extra segmented’
2:18
: For those who’re the Crimson Sox, would you QO Giolito, or is there an excessive amount of threat of him accepting it? They’ve the again of the rotation fairly properly lined with younger guys and it looks like he’s unlikely to be higher in 26 than 25.
2:18
: Oh I undoubtedly wouldn’t
2:18
: I assume he would hit the bid instantly
2:19
: Gio is one other man who I’ve ranked behind a number of gamers I feel he’ll out-earn – however even then, that’s at 2/14
2:20
: and as conference, I’m gonna hold describing all contracts as years/AAV, in case I hadn’t mentiond that but
2:20
: mainly I feel that the peripherals have been fairly gross, and I feel that Steamer’s projection (4.70 ERA, 1.2 WAR in a full season) is about proper, perhaps a bit optimistic
2:20
: Assist me with some valuation confusion! I hold seeing commerce proposals (from writers, and many others. not followers) involving Jarren Duran, and I’m genuinely shocked by how way more individuals assume must be added in a commerce for an excellent SP (which is almost all of the proposals). Even for those who assume 2024 was an enormous outlier, Duran is a 3-4+ WAR outfielder with three extra years of group management, but individuals insist that the Crimson Sox must add a number of top-100 prospects to get somebody like Joe Ryan (or somebody related). Even with pitchers usually commanding extra, I simply don’t get it – is the league view of Duran that a lot decrease than it appears?
2:20
: And to be clear from my final query re: Duran, I’m not essentially saying the Twins would need him throughout a rebuild – you may insert different pitchers. It simply looks like writers are closely discounting Duran’s worth and I’m undecided what I’m lacking.
2:20
: Ah sure, ‘writers’
2:20
: I’ll simply say this
2:20
: Duran’s by no means getting traded, there’s a worth mismatch
2:21
: like, 3-4+ WAR outfielder is one view
2:21
: one other is that of the projection techniques, who assume he’s a 2-3 WAR man going ahead
2:21
: late breakouts like Duran, particularly ones whose worth is constructed round issues like pace and protection, simply don’t challenge properly
2:21
: perhaps he’ll be the exception. persons are. However I feel that groups who could be buying Duran are treating him as a short-term proposition
2:22
: as in, certain I like his age 28 season, however I’m down on the age 31 season that I’m additionally buying on this deal
2:23
: and he’s not as low-cost as you’d like, 7.7 million in your second yr of arb (he already settled on that) is a reasonably good tempo to cap out round 15-20 mil
2:23
: mainly I feel lots of groups wish to have him as an excellent outfield starter for the current. However the Sox appear to be content material to attend for somebody to worth him like a cornerstone
2:24
: That is smart to me! In the event that they assume he’s that, why would they commerce him? However I simply don’t see a lot occurring right here because of this
2:24
: most definitely yankee in addition to bellinger within the high 50? i believe it’s
2:25
: I dunno, a bunch of relievers?
2:25
: I don’t assume they’re an ideal match for Tucker, agreed
2:25
: Did you will have a prediction for Story previous to him opting in?
2:25
: undoubtedly not
2:25
: I had him listed as ‘certain to say no choose out’
2:25
: How a lot does the upcoming lockout impression groups willingness to commit long run {dollars} this offseason?
2:25
: Is there any concern with how the market will reply to an impending lockout? Did your mannequin have in mind the larger markets groups considerations of a possible cap?
2:26
: Oh, there’s particular concern, however it’s the form of factor the place if I informed you I might quantify the impact, I’d simply be mendacity
2:26
: I erred on the aspect of shorter offers the place I might, which makes lots of sense, and my inflation charge for $/WAR is decrease than it has been in recent times
2:27
: However realistically, I’m a man with a spreadsheet and a few expertise modeling monetary derivatives, not somebody sitting in a group board room and getting you the true finest filth
2:27
: It’s a guess
2:27
: additionally: nobody’s sitting in a group board room and getting you the true finest filth, sadly
2:27
: You talked about Gleyber Torres, would you are feeling higher about him as a possible goal if he was amendable to shifting to 1B or 3B this upcoming season?
2:28
: Third? Positive. And I’m certain he’s amenable to a transfer there. First? No thanks, a primary baseman with a ten% above common batting line is simply not attention-grabbing to me
2:29
: I don’t assume Torres has mainly ever displayed the form of offense that might make me excited to place him at first
2:29
: Had a full of life dialogue with mates about Sonny Grey this morning. Appeared like we disagreed totally on how his no commerce clause can be wielded (we noticed Arenado be selective final offseason), and naturally the cash is an enormous impediment too with the backloading. Any ideas on possible touchdown spots?
2:30
: I don’t really assume the cash is an impediment, to be sincere. It’s doable that the unusual form of the deal issues extra? So if Grey shoves this yr, he can change into a free agent
2:30
: even when the group buying him workout routines its membership possibility
2:31
: like, you may all the time pay down a part of a deal for those who assume the cash is what’s holding you again. Nevertheless it looks like the larger concern right here is the dearth of sure management plus not figuring out what he desires to do. So I do not know how his no commerce clause can be wielded however presumably, he noticed how a lot enjoyable Arenado had along with his (appeared unhealthy, aggravated Playing cards followers, bummer of a season afterwards) and is extra prepared to maneuver
2:31
: Hey Ben, thanks for all of the onerous work these days. Trying ahead to all of the offseason protection. What am I lacking on Stop? I get the priority along with his two pitch reliance and command points, however I feel along with his observe report and age he clears $200 MM. In comparison with somebody like Framber, I wrestle to see how groups gained’t provide extra size given his age. Curious to listen to your ideas.
2:32
: I’m not wild about both Stop or Valdez, to be sincere with you. I gave them each bumps as the highest arms available on the market, however I really feel like there are significant pink flags for each
2:34
: I’ve Stop getting a little bit extra as a result of he’s youthful, however I feel that each of them are within the vary of ‘this man is good, I in all probability wouldn’t be comfy with him as my ace’
2:34
: For the report my very simplistic mannequin, which simply makes use of ZiPS, Steamer, and a bunch of precise historic knowledge, would give him even much less
2:35
: I feel that it’s incorrect, to be clear. I feel that the truth that groups like aces (the one locations the place contracts have been stunning to the lengthy aspect in latest yeras are premium starters) will assist him
2:36
: however mainly, I don’t anticipate many guys to get greater than 5 years this winter
2:36
: I imagine I solely have three, and considered one of them is the particular case of Murakami
2:36
: You’ve gotten talked about a couple of instances the decline in Woodruff’s stuff. However aside from fastball velocity, what are you seeing? Over 12 begins his Okay, BB, SwStr%, barrel% (32%, 5%, 12%, 7%) all look nice and at profession norms.
2:36
: these aren’t stuff
2:36
: perhaps his outcomes will work out
2:37
: however like… I watched him pitch
2:37
: and I went oh, his stuff’s not nearly as good
2:37
: like, you may’t have watched Woodruff this yr and never thought that
2:37
: perhaps you assume “oh he’s getting it carried out anyway”
2:38
: however…. PitchingBot had him at a 55 stuff by 2023, 42 stuff in 2025. Stuff+ had him at 110 by 2023, 96 in 2025
2:38
: this isn’t controversial. Possibly he can regulate and hold getting related outcomes with meaningfully worse pitches. I’d not make investments a ton of cash looking for out, if I have been GM’ing
2:38
: Appreciated your observe within the Intro about mid-tier pitching attracting increased relative FA funding than hitters. With what we’ve seen in year-over-year efficiency volatility, are there any RPs in your checklist that GM Ben would really chase at their predicted contracts?
2:38
: I really like lots of the blokes in the back of the highest 50
2:38
: I completely agree with the pure pressures going through groups right here, and I’d be appearing the identical approach as them
2:39
: it’s simply not very attention-grabbing to me to signal a 1.5 WAR hitter (except i want a backup catcher, that’s a really completely different market)
2:39
: I feel I’m in all probability increased on the relievers within the final 10 than followers are. I feel that they’re a very helpful approach to fill out your group
2:39
: do these quasi-surprising opt-ins (flaherty, story, bieber) recommend gamers are frightened of what the market may seem like
2:39
: Okay, so Story’s is simply not stunning in any respect
2:40
: the man has performed 900 PA within the final three years. He has a 92 wRC+ in that point. He’s 33. He’d barely be within the high 50 if he opted out, and it was like 3/20 or one thing
2:40
: the opposite two? If I’d gotten these knowledge factors per week in the past, I’d in all probability be down a bit on my estimates, sure
2:41
: I assumed that each Flaherty and Bieber have been so cuspy that I do assume this tells you brokers and gamers are down, directionally, available on the market
2:41
: however in truth, this all occurred within the final day, and I used to be too busy writing a managerial report card and redoing some blurbs and finalizing the publication schedule (and changing these two guys within the 50 after they didn’t change into free brokers) that I simply caught with what i had
2:42
: Kinda shocked at how low Bichette is, on condition that he’s not less than two years youthful than all of the place gamers forward of him save Tucker. Do you simply assume he’s going to get overpaid? I’d really feel higher about him than Alonso for certain, and perhaps Bregman and Bellinger. Schwarber’s such an odd case that it’s powerful to evaluate
2:42
: What do you give the percentages that Bo Bichette is a SS in 2026 vs. a 2B?
2:42
: so, yeah, that’s simply my desire order
2:42
: if I have been the GM of a group, I’d simply be afraid of giving Bichette a bag after which having him flip right into a pumpkin too quickly
2:43
: the trajectory is terrifying!
2:43
: I’m normally a threat it for the biscuit man with regards to high free brokers however I feel that Bichette “shouldn’t” clear that bar
2:43
: like, if everybody evaluated gamers the precise approach I do in my head
2:44
: the factor is, he’s a Silver Slugger shortstop who’s 28, he’s gonna receives a commission. So though I had a comparatively low view of him in desire order, I’m pretty assured somebody goes to present him some huge cash. I don’t know who, to be clear, however I do assume he’ll
2:44
: Btw didn’t Yamamoto’s stuff grade out worse than Woodruff’s this yr? They nonetheless owe him 260 M..
2:45
: it didn’t! and whereas stuff fashions aren’t good, CHANGE in stuff fashions is extra helpful, as a result of it lets you already know if somebody is getting worse or higher
2:45
: however look, for those who assume Yamamoto is worse than Woodruff, I don’t assume I’m convincing you of something
2:45
: I’m undecided if the problem with Devin Williams this yr was not having the ability to deal with NY, however the sample was that he would wrestle in excessive leverage and dominate when demoted (.075/.205/.104 line in opposition to in low leverage conditions). Small pattern but when I have been an enormous market GM I’d not less than be fascinated by that earlier than signing him as a more in-depth.
2:45
: That mentioned, Williams appeared OK within the playoffs so who is aware of?
2:46
: I’m gonna be sincere, considered one of my greatest leaks as a GM could be that i simply don’t imagine on this crap
2:46
: I’d completely not be fascinated by that earlier than signing him, and perhaps that’s to my detriment
2:46
: You talked about you had 3 gamers getting 5 years or extra…I assume that’s Murakami such as you mentioned after which Tucker? Framber?
2:46
: whoops, that ought to have mentioned ‘greater than 5 years’. And Tucker, Murakami, Bichette
2:46
: I get there are pink flags about Imanaga however… does opting out of three/57 actually make sense for the Cubs? Is that how down the market is?
2:47
: I used to be stunned by this one, although it’s really extra like 3/65 given the posting settlement (15% of whole deal will get paid to the BayStars)
2:47
: however yeah, I used to be a little bit stunned, however I additionally assume that they could simply rapidly come to an settlement on the same deal and avoid wasting cash
2:48
: one actually helpful factor about QO’ing a participant you need to re-sign is that nobody else goes to present them greater than $50 million if their worth is in that tough vary, as a result of there’s a vivid line: underneath 50, low-cost penalties, over 50, large penalties
2:48
: so now the Cubs have kinda capped Imanaga’s market, and that makes negotiating simpler
2:48
: Aside from Bregman, are there another high 20-30 free brokers you see nearly as good matches for the Crimson Sox? Schwarber and Alonso match properly in that the group wants extra energy, however poorly in that they clog up DH (Alonso will in 2-3 years on the newest) after they have already got a surfeit of place gamers and have to rotate them round. What about SP–doable that they signal a mid-tier one to go along with the one it looks like they’re aiming to commerce for?
2:49
: Yeah, I feel that in the event that they need to spend cash on free brokers and it’s not Bregman, it nearly must be pitching
2:50
: I agree along with your evaluation of the bat-first guys, they only don’t really feel like the fitting matches to me. Possibly Ha-Seong Kim? I can be sincere and say I’ve thought of his market lower than the remainder of the blokes round him since I added him partway by the method, however he’s a far superior infield choice to what they’ve been working with
2:50
: I’d be dying to get Shota Imanaga to signal if I have been SF or Detroit. He might actually excel in a ballpark that suppresses residence runs.
2:50
: yeah, I might see these if the deal is brief. I actually am critical in regards to the 50 mil factor, although
2:50
: there’s a reasonably sturdy chilling impact on guys whose market worth could be proper round that cutoff with out the QO, and I feel he’s gonna get hit onerous by it
2:51
: Tyler Rogers because the fifth reliever off the board feels essentially the most appropriate place. With that in thoughts, how usually is is RA9-WAR going to be above the 1-4 guys over the following 3 seasons?
2:51
: twice on common
2:51
: I needed to place Rogers even increased, lol
2:51
: in my first reduce of the checklist he was the second reliever on the board. And in some unspecified time in the future I mentioned hey Ben, certain that is YOUR high 50, however you may’t simply fully ignore what the market thinks
2:52
: Giants look like the right match for Tucker, no? Want lefty bats, obtrusive gap in RF, extra star energy to not less than fake to maintain up w LA, and many others
2:52
: Yeah, now that I might completely see
2:52
: that’s the form of group the place Tucker’s capability to play a mean nook outfield spot may be very helpful
2:52
: after which yeah, lefty bats, I really assume he’s an excellent match vibe smart for SF as a chill star, Posey has been attempting so as to add stars
2:53
: I’m not likely certain the cash provides up, however I wager you they’ll not less than be kicking the tires
2:53
: The Cubs getting an enormous low cost on Imanaga due to surprisingly particular MLB guidelines once more could be kinda humorous. Two nickels, and many others.
2:54
: I really assume lots of guys get obtained by this specific one…. however sure, two completely different guidelines getting Imanaga is annoying
2:54
: and truthfully the posting rule form of obtained him AGAIN right here in that it made the Cubs owe greater than he was gonna get, which made the deal look worse to them
2:54
: Just like the Giants-Tucker and Pirates bats query, I’m actually curious how the Phillies rework the outfield. I feel the one certain factor is Justin Crawford will get referred to as up and Castellanos is gone a method or one other. Tucker is large cash however who wouldn’t not less than inquire?
2:54
: oh 100%. That’s one other one which makes good sense to me
2:54
: The place would you charge Munetaka Murakami, on a scale of Joey Gallo (Yankees) to Joey Gallo (Rangers)
2:55
: I watched a ton of video of Murakami for this, and I obtained a ton of recommendation from Eric as properly, and yeah, I dunno man
2:56
: very clearly, the expertise is there. Even with the strikeouts, he’s flat out obliterating NPB pitching. I feel I’m extra like Joey Gallo Rangers, however the error bars are huge
2:56
: Your write-up is nice! Concerning Pete: Alonso redid his swing over the winter & improved considerably each when it comes to outputs & underneath the hood. Clearly, it improves his near-term outlook however how a lot impression can that kind of enchancment have on his getting old curve usually?
2:56
: mmmm…. I feel that telling you with any certainty could be overstating my confidence, and actually the flexibility of projection techniques
2:57
: a lot of hitters redo their swings
2:57
: typically it adjustments their profession fully. typically it’s nice for a yr after which it breaks. typically it does nothing. You’d need to ask Dan for the precise set of the inputs he makes use of however I’ll say that I didn’t take into account a swing change that a lot in any respect, I appeared much more on the underneath the hood stats and outcomes
2:58
: I’ve to be sincere, I’m a little bit disillusioned in Fangraphs protection of recreation 7. I don’t assume one article does that recreation (which was controversial the best recreation within the historical past of the game) justice. Simply my two cents.
2:58
: Truthfully, as somebody who simply put out 8000 phrases of content material about John Schneider up to now two days, plus one other 8000 about free brokers, I feel this chat might be not essentially the most affordable place to complain about this
2:58
: however uh, yeah, sorry? Look, we cowl a LOT of baseball. I want we might cowl extra
2:59
: We’re all the time attempting to cowl extra!
2:59
: Is Schwarber actually going to get 5 years? The variance for his future is wonderful
2:59
: I can’t see it, though I too have seen rumors to that impact
2:59
: Simply…. an excessive amount of for me, and too out of step with the best way contracts have been going broadly
2:59
: 2/30 for O’Hearn appears loopy to me since guys identical to him are all the time low-cost/accessible on the deadline. Additionally, don’t need to squint too onerous to see your prospect turning right into a 1.5WAR 1B/OF/DH. ideas?
3:00
: I feel O’Hearn is obvious of the lifeless zone, mainly
3:00
: I might undoubtedly be incorrect
3:01
: however I feel that he’s demonstrated a transparent sufficient talent for a number of years that I don’t need to look too onerous to seek out groups who would really feel assured that he might out-hit their finest lefty bat
3:01
: finest lefty prospect bat
3:02
: However he’s clearly cuspy. And that’s how the checklist is, actually. AFter the cluster of hitters that O’Hearn is in (Bader, Polanco, O’Hearn, Kim, Realmuto, Ozuna), there are nearly no different bats of curiosity
3:02
: I’ve two backup catchers and Luis Arraez, and no different hitters, getting greater than like 1/8
3:03
: so I do assume that if I’m incorrect on O’Hearn, it’s b/c you have been proper and he will get nearly nothing
3:04
: Possibilities M’s signal Naylor?
3:04
: I feel the possibilities of them signing a primary baseman/DH are very excessive. I don’t really feel that I’ve a lot edge in predicting who, to be sincere with you
3:04
: Any spots you want Ranger to finish up on (assuming he gained’t be again in Philly sadly)? Blue Jays, Crimson Sox, Orioles, Giants, Padres all come to thoughts
3:05
: oh, attention-grabbing. I feel the O’s are in all probability out in that they’re notably hesitant to spend free company cash on pitchers, and so Suarez could be a bizarre one to interrupt the financial institution for given their earlier habits
3:06
: Giants is smart to me in the event that they don’t assume they’re signing Tucker. Mainly, extra Logan Webbs appears good there
3:06
: Except I’m misunderstanding, it sounds such as you assume Duran is staying in Boston (“I’ll simply say this Duran’s by no means getting traded, there’s a worth mismatch”). In that case, who’re they shifting? They need to clear that outfield logjam by some means, no?
3:06
: Properly, I mentioned ‘they need to clear that outfield logjam by some means’ final winter
3:06
: they usually traded Rafael Devers
3:06
: so, I dunno. It’s a very attention-grabbing puzzle!
3:07
: My two cents, as an armchair psychologist, is that they’re going to be very cussed, commerce nobody, and stay with the waste
3:07
: I feel that endowment impact may be very actual, and that after you get an thought in your head for what it’s good to commerce somebody, it’s very onerous to accept much less
3:07
: However I don’t assume even the Sox know what they’re gonna do. So I undoubtedly don’t know
3:08
: Who’re the most effective targets for the Jays this offseason? Bichette hurts to lose, however pitching looks like a extra pressing want.
3:08
: That is an previous one, however I actually loved the display screen identify (this particular person had rpeviously submitted the query half-typed)
3:09
: I really assume they need to signal Bichette, haha. Transfer him to second. I simply assume it’s a yr the place I need to be out of the pitching market if I can swing it. The Toronto rotation isn’t that dire. Possibly Bichette and a few good relievers? Or Merrill Kelly within the Max Scherzer position?
3:10
: Any likelihood of groups providing any of the elite SP an extended deal like Fried? Each Framber and Stop are estimated at 5
3:10
: there may be undoubtedly an opportunity
3:10
: these items are tremendous onerous! i’m simply guessing, you already know?
3:10
: I feel that I’m on the brief finish for contract lengths nearly throughout the board
3:10
: now, in my protection, MLB groups even have been for years
3:11
: Right here’s a enjoyable approach of placing it: I took the highest 40 names on my checklist b/c that’s what number of one other expertise evaluator/author additionally projected
3:11
: as in, that they had one for all 40
3:11
: for these 40 gamers, I estimated 119 player-years price of contract
3:11
: so like, 3 yeras on common? and only a few above 4
3:12
: This particular person was at 148, so almost 4 years on common
3:12
: and I feel they’re just about the median
3:12
: I’m VERRRRRRRRRY heavy on the brief deal plan this yr
3:12
: Does the looming strike in 2027 tank the commerce worth of fellows with 2 years of management left? M Gore, Joe Ryan, and many others
3:12
: Attention-grabbing query, however I don’t actually assume so
3:13
: that mentioned, these two guys are a few of the most attention-grabbing valuation puzzles, as a result of I feel they’re who lots of pitching-needy groups really need
3:13
: like, you don’t really need seven years of Dylan Stop or no matter. You need two! and Joe Ryan may give you that
3:13
: so I feel that the Twins and Nats can have lots of suitors for them this winter. I’m tremendous curious to see what Washington’s plan appears to be like like with the whole FO overhaul after so a few years of continuity
3:14
: Any real looking choices you see as an excellent match for Cleveland? They’ve little or no on the books for ’26, however have proven little willingness to spend. Some assistance on offense is clearly wanted
3:14
: Austin Hedges
3:14
: (really, Hedges has already signed an extension with the Guardians)
3:14
: I used to be joking with Meg that we must always crowdsource Hedges only for funsies, and that’s how I discovered thta he signed a precise duplicate of final yr’s deal once more
3:15
: no, um, they need to be attempting to signal O’Hearn if his market really dips
3:15
: the one awkward half about that’s that there are two nice lefty starters within the ALC, however hey, perhaps Skubal will get dealt
3:16
: mainly I can’t imagine they go into subsequent yr with CJ Kayfus as a DH, like our rosters have them down now
3:17
: and that seems like an inexpensive ish place so as to add gamers, the place for those who aren’t buying on the high of the market (test!) and don’t have any nice hitters within the higher minors (can’t say for certain, however it doesn’t look all that nice, they appear to have a ton of center infielders like all the time)
3:17
: then you may go signal the ‘lifeless zone’ bats who otehr groups don’t have any use for
3:18
: Okay, this was actually enjoyable, however I’ve to run and go sleep for the following 75 days
3:18
: I’m taking the following week and a half off, however I’ll return to my common Monday chat window after that, and possibly take many extra questions on foolish/non-baseball stuff then than I did as we speak.
3:19
: Have an exquisite week everybody, and thanks a lot for tuning in and taking the time to ask questions.
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He could be discovered on Bluesky @benclemens.
