In accordance with a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are thought to have gotten their 2024 participant payroll beneath the primary aggressive steadiness tax threshold of $237MM. Nevertheless, that won’t be confirmed till later this offseason when the commissioner’s workplace calculates every workforce’s last payroll and formally declares which golf equipment should pay luxurious tax penalties for the 2024 season.
The Blue Jays got here into the season with a luxurious tax payroll roughly $11MM above the primary threshold, however they shaved some cash off the books by buying and selling a number of gamers forward of the deadline. It’s additionally price retaining in thoughts that publicly out there payroll estimates are precisely that – estimates.
In accordance with the estimates at RosterResource, 10 groups (together with the Blue Jays) are in line to pay the luxurious tax this January. The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Giants, and Rangers are sure to be penalized, whereas the Blue Jays and Cubs are shut sufficient that they may probably slip underneath the $237MM threshold within the last calculations. RosterResource has Toronto’s last 2024 luxurious tax payroll at $240.4MM and Chicago’s at $238.4MM. Whereas neither the Blue Jays nor the Cubs must pay a very excessive penalty for his or her modest overages (in the event that they do the truth is go over), the Blue Jays, specifically, may gain advantage from resetting their penalties. They paid the luxurious tax for the primary time in franchise historical past final season. Luxurious tax penalties improve when a workforce goes over the primary threshold for a second consecutive season and improve once more when a workforce goes over for a 3rd consecutive season. Until the Blue Jays are confidently planning to lower payroll this winter, it could make a giant distinction if they may reset their penalties this yr. In spite of everything, a 30% tax on a couple of million {dollars} in overages wouldn’t be that large of a deal for Toronto, however the potential for a 50% tax (the penalty for a third-time offender) subsequent yr and past may considerably hamper offseason spending.
What’s extra, if the Blue Jays get underneath the luxurious tax threshold, they might solely lose their second-highest draft decide (and never their second and fifth-highest picks) in the event that they signal a free agent who acquired the qualifying provide this winter. Equally, they might solely lose $500K of worldwide bonus pool cash fairly than $1MM. Perennial high-spenders, just like the World Collection champion Dodgers, perceive that it’s price shedding a couple of draft picks and a few worldwide bonus pool cash in an effort to signal the most effective main league gamers and subject essentially the most aggressive main league workforce. Nevertheless, one can perceive why the Blue Jays, who completed 74-88 in 2024 and would possible solely be a couple of million over the luxurious tax threshold (in the event that they went over in any respect), would favor to not be so harshly penalized.
There is no such thing as a motive to imagine the Blue Jays are coming into a rebuilding or retooling part after their disappointing 2024 season. As an alternative, it appears extra possible they may attempt to contend as soon as once more of their last season of workforce management over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As they try to take action, it could actually assist in the event that they don’t need to be fairly so involved about signing a QO free agent or bringing subsequent yr’s payroll above the primary luxurious tax threshold ($241MM in 2025). Davidi notes that workforce president Mark Shapiro doesn’t see the workforce’s payroll “both rising or lowering in a giant approach,” however that also leaves for the workforce to signal no less than one QO free agent and presumably eclipse the primary tier of the CBT. RosterResource estimates that Toronto’s luxurious tax payroll for 2025 is at present $211.2MM, roughly $29.2MM decrease than this previous yr’s estimated complete.
