Cheesesteaks vs. French Dips: Dodgers vs. Phillies NLDS Preview

Meat + bread + mess are probably the most iconic meals combos recognized to humanity. Two of my favorites are classics of Philadelphia and Los Angeles, great amalgamations that make a sloppy mess of whiz or jus go down my chin and, too usually, the shirt that I’m sporting. I’ve all the time lived within the jap a part of america, so I’ve extra sensible expertise with cheesesteak places (I’m keen on Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork). However the French dip is great as effectively — I’ve at the least gotten to strive it at Philippe the Unique — and I additionally love its cousin, quesabirria. Whichever you like, you’re selecting from two of the heavy hitters in good, informal meals.

I’m not speaking about deliciousness as a result of I’m hungry, although it’s nearly dinnertime, however as a result of the Dodgers and Phillies play an identical function in baseball: They’re not everybody’s favorites, however they’re two of probably the most profitable franchises of the final 15 years, and should you’re an NL staff, there’s a very good likelihood you’ll should undergo one or each of those groups en path to a championship.

The Rotations

This 12 months’s Phillies haven’t been bitten by as many accidents because the Dodgers have in current seasons, however the ones they’ve had have been important. Zack Wheeler gained’t be discovered this postseason, or a lot of wherever subsequent 12 months both, after present process thoracic outlet melancholy surgical procedure final month to handle probably the most dreaded of pitcher illnesses. The longest-standing legacy member of the rotation, Aaron Nola, completed the common season along with his greatest begin of the season, but it surely got here after a half-season of normal ineffectiveness and a half-season of recovering from an ankle damage and a fractured rib. That’s the unhealthy information. The excellent news is the breakout season of Cristopher Sánchez — arguably his second consecutive one — that noticed him develop into the largest rival to Paul Skenes for this 12 months’s NL Cy Younger award. Ranger Suárez additionally put up profession bests in innings, ERA, FIP, and WAR, and Jesús Luzardo rebounded to his 2023 efficiency. A five-game collection with three off days offers the Phillies nearly their optimum rotation, at the least from among the many wholesome hurlers, as they shouldn’t want a fourth starter (in all probability Nola) till the NLCS in the event that they get there, and shouldn’t must go to both Taijuan Walker or Walker Buehler (signed August 31) in any respect.

Los Angeles is definitely in a reasonably good place by way of rotation well being, at the least in comparison with its regular situation. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are wholesome, and although he didn’t make any appearances towards the Reds, Tyler Glasnow was a bullpen choice through the Wild Card collection and will additionally seize a begin within the Division Sequence. For the primary time shortly, the Dodgers ought to be capable to get by means of the postseason with 4 glorious starters. In reality, this 12 months, they’ve a surplus of strong beginning pitchers, as Clayton Kershaw in his farewell season and rookie Roki Sasaki, now again from damage, are anticipated to get high-leverage innings in aid.

If I inform ZiPS to solely have a look at the highest three beginning pitchers in these two rotations, the Phillies and Dodgers rank first and second, respectively, with a chasm earlier than the Mariners. The Dodgers inch forward in a seven-game collection because of the prevalence of their fourth-starter choices, however I’d be mendacity if I stated both staff had an important benefit right here.

The Lineups

The injured Will Smith was on the Wild Card Sequence roster, however he made no pinch-hitting appearances towards the Reds, and he hasn’t caught a sport in a month. Ben Rortvedt did the majority of the catching down the stretch and within the two Wild Card video games, and I don’t suppose there’s any manner to not name this a large downgrade. ZiPS sees this as a bigger concern within the NLDS as a result of all three of the Phillies beginning pitchers are lefties. The Dodgers didn’t have an enormous platoon break up through the season (5 factors of OPS), however that’s as a result of Smith was within the lineup, and ZiPS sees him because the second-best hitter towards lefties on the staff (a projected .798 OPS). Regardless of the drop-off from Smith to Rortvedt, ZiPS views the Dodgers are the second-best playoff staff towards southpaws, behind the Yankees, however in a decent matchup, small variations could make a significant influence on the end result of a collection.

Even with out Smith beginning, the Dodgers have a lineup with Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, so the supporting solid must be completely atrocious to make this offense not scary. And this supporting solid is greater than satisfactory, with outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Andy Pages, in addition to third baseman Max Muncy, who continues to keep away from the mid-30s offensive decline. Tommy Edman has his moments, and the Dodgers appear to have lastly observed that Michael Conforto now not hits like a significant leaguer. The staff’s bench is strong, with Dalton Dashing significantly better than the everyday third catcher on a roster, and loads of alternative to play platoons, particularly with infielders Muncy and Miguel Rojas.

The Phillies have the front-end expertise to take care of the Dodgers, however their depth is far weaker. Kyle Schwarber is an offensive beast who would have discovered residence with the 1993 Phillies, and I doubt I’ve to trumpet the bonafides of Bryce Harper or Trea Turner. However J.T. Realmuto isn’t fairly the participant he was just a few years in the past, and each nook outfield spots (largely dealt with by Max Kepler and Nick Castellanos this season) ranked within the backside third of the league in WAR. Middle fielder Harrison Bader has excelled since coming over on the deadline from Minnesota, and his addition has supplied the additional benefit of sliding Brandon Marsh to left discipline, however there’s nonetheless a major distinction within the general offensive projections. Discover I say general right here, as a result of there’s some excellent news on the projection entrance: ZiPS sees the staff disparity as largely being towards left-handed pitchers. In opposition to righties, ZiPS has each groups as being projected to attain 5.2 runs per sport (towards common pitching), however towards lefties, it sees a 5.0 to 4.4 runs per sport edge for the Dodgers. Three of the 4 Los Angeles starters anticipated to pitch throw right-handed, and as issues are stand, the lone lefty, Snell, is lined as much as solely begin as soon as on this collection, in Recreation 2, although due to the three off days within the collection, he might begin Recreation 5 on 4 days of relaxation. These platoon splits are excessive sufficient that if I had been Dave Roberts, I might do no matter is critical to get Snell the ball two instances if this collection goes the gap.

The Bullpens

It seems like many of the relievers traded on the deadline didn’t truly work out, however the Phillies had one of many exceptions in Jhoan Duran. The highest 4 within the Phillies bullpen (Duran, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, David Robertson) is sufficient that ZiPS thinks that that is one of the best bullpen in baseball proper now, even with out José Alvarado (who could be disqualified from the postseason if he had been wholesome). Mainly, any reliever that Philadelphia is probably going to make use of over the following week initiatives as above common, even Buehler if he’s on the roster and utilized in aid.

I’d argue that the bullpen accidents are extra consequential for the Dodgers than their starter accidents proper now, although the return of Sasaki and the flexibility to have additional starters within the pen mitigates this to some extent. I’m not as bullish on a Tanner Scott rebound as some are (together with the projections) given the drop-off in his strikeout fee the previous few years, however once you add in Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Sasaki, the spare starters, and the surprisingly strong Jack Dreyer, it’s nonetheless an excellent group, even when it’s a hair behind the Phillies and scares the crap out of Dodgers followers on a nightly foundation.

The Projection

I went with two totally different situations right here, based mostly on how the Dodgers use their rotation.

Whereas it’s just a few proportion factors, the situations by which Snell will get two begins are the optimized ones, at the least in response to ZiPS. In any case, the projections counsel a small, however constant edge for the Dodgers, with their slight offensive benefit outweighing a slight bullpen drawback and the Phillies’ getting residence discipline benefit.

We’re not going to settle any sandwich debates within the subsequent week, however we are going to discover out which one among these groups will go residence hungry, with the bitter aftertaste of an early postseason elimination.