After a protracted, quiet offseason, Zac Gallen is again the place he began. In November, he turned down a qualifying provide, a one-year deal from the Diamondbacks price $22.025 million. On Friday, Gallen and the Diamondbacks agreed to phrases on a brand new contract. Cease me when you’ve heard this one earlier than – it’s for one yr and $22.025 million (with deferrals that drop the web current worth to $18.75 million). Arizona’s ace is as soon as once more on the prime of the rotation within the desert.
Gallen was my no. 19 free agent this winter, and I’ll simply reproduce the primary line of my write-up right here: “After Gallen’s résumé for about an hour, I got here to an apparent conclusion: I’m glad I’m not a serious league GM.” He had a extreme case of pumpkinization in 2025. He missed fewer bats, drew fewer chases, walked extra batters and struck out fewer, gave up louder contact, didn’t maintain the ball on the bottom, and misplaced a little bit of velocity. It was the worst season of his profession by a big margin; his 4.83 ERA might need been a caricature of his efficiency, however all of his superior run prevention estimators surged to career-worst marks, too.
As a platform yr, it left one thing to be desired. However I nonetheless assume Gallen was proper to show down his QO and survey the panorama. After that didn’t work out, nevertheless, he made the apparent alternative: Run it again in the identical place and take a look at once more. Provided that he put up a 3.20 ERA (3.22 FIP, 3.47 xFIP) from 2022 by 2024, price a whopping 12.2 WAR (14.9 rWAR), betting on not less than a bit little bit of bounce-back earlier than a second journey to free company absolutely felt very interesting.
I don’t have a robust really feel for what Gallen’s 2026 will appear to be. The vary of outcomes is big. Did you simply see what I stated about his final 4 seasons? I do assume that there’s a good probability of a rebound to his prior kind, a borderline ace who you’d be ecstatic with as a no. 2. His method has by no means been easy to determine; even at his finest, he threw a boatload of pitches that our fashions weren’t enamored with and made issues work with command and deception. Now, after that talent principally turned off for a yr, I’m nervous that he can’t flip it again on once more – however my base case continues to be that he figures it out. It’s the type of threat I’d be taken with taking as a borderline playoff staff.
That describes the Diamondbacks completely. After a stirring World Sequence run in 2023, they haven’t returned to October regardless of averaging 84.5 wins prior to now two years. The time to strike is now. Ketel Marte, their offensive pacesetter, is within the tail finish of his prime. Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Gabriel Moreno are every below contract for some time, they usually’re all nice proper this minute. Losing a yr of this lineup with out enough pitching can be a tragedy.
To be honest, it’s not like this staff hasn’t tried. The D-backs signed Corbin Burnes, the highest free agent pitcher, final yr, just for him to wish elbow surgical procedure. The yr earlier than that, they signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year deal price $80 million, and there was additionally the entire Jordan Montgomery saga. Earlier this winter, they gave Merrill Kelly two years and $40 million to return to the fold.
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Even with all of these signings, although, Arizona wanted extra. Earlier than including Gallen, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Michael Soroka, who has mixed for 201 main league innings over the previous 5 years, as an on a regular basis member of their rotation. Ryne Nelson, one other key contributor, pale down the stretch and has by no means managed 30 begins in his three years within the rotation. Brandon Pfaadt has hit that 30-start plateau in two straight years, however he has a 4.97 ERA in that stretch, so his leash will not be infinite. Their farm system has a couple of doable candidates within the higher minors, however with out Gallen, they could have wanted a number of of these guys to pan out on the main league degree. Even after plugging Gallen into the projections, we now have this as a below-average rotation. It’s not a lot that the D-backs don’t have 5 succesful main league starters. The issue is that groups want greater than that, and likewise want some upside, as a result of a bunch of league-average starters is normally not sufficient to make a playoff rotation.
Our playoff odds give Arizona a 32% probability of constructing the playoffs, with an 81.4-win median projection. That’s the precise proper place within the win curve the place including expertise pays off most, and this staff has largely executed that up to now this winter. It introduced again Kelly (traded on the deadline) and Gallen, traded for Nolan Arenado, and signed a smattering of fascinating discount free brokers for depth. Gallen would possibly solely add a win or so to this projection, since he’s changing pitchers who’re higher than alternative degree, however the Diamondbacks are in a state of affairs the place each win issues. They missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker in 2024, and by a mere three video games in ’25. Neglect a calculation of {dollars} per win; they’re occupied with {dollars} per marginal improve in playoff odds, and from that perspective, including Gallen is a no brainer.
I believe it’s cheap to wonder if Arizona missed out on an opportunity so as to add a prime first baseman or DH earlier within the winter. Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber might need been out of the staff’s value vary, however both of the NPB hitting stars — Munetaka Murakami or Kazuma Okamoto — would have been fascinating suits in Phoenix. Among the prime beginning pitchers would’ve regarded mighty good there, too. However for no matter purpose, the Diamondbacks didn’t land any of them, and right here we’re in mid-February. It’s like that previous saying about saving for retirement: The most effective time to signal a difference-making free agent was two months in the past. The second-best time to signal a difference-making free agent is now.
It takes two to signal a contract, however on this case, Gallen’s incentives are lined up with Arizona’s. He desires to hit free company once more and not using a qualifying provide connected, and ideally with a great platform yr on his résumé. The squad would love nothing greater than for that to occur; the doable futures the place Gallen has a resurgent yr embody quite a lot of playoff appearances. That’s a great capper on the signing, in actual fact. what Gallen is able to doing in Arizona, and each he and the Diamondbacks are hoping that he reveals it yet one more time in 2026.
