Everything Is Burger in Texas

Not content material to look at from the sidelines at their dwelling Winter Conferences, the Texas Rangers dipped their toes within the water on Tuesday night. (An idiom I selected with nice care, contemplating earlier occasions of historic import at this 12 months’s venue.) Along with a three-year, $75 million deal to convey veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi again to Arlington, the Rangers acquired Jake Burger from the Marlins in change for minor league infielders Max Acosta and Echedry Vargas, in addition to pitching prospect Brayan Mendoza.

Any description of a Burger commerce begs out to incorporate the phrase “provides much-needed energy.” I don’t know that the Rangers want extra energy, however it’s actually one thing you possibly can by no means have an excessive amount of of in your lineup. I’ll say this: Over the previous two seasons, Burger has hit 63 dwelling runs. So has Corey Seager. Adolis García has hit 64; Marcus Semien, 52. No one else presently on the Rangers has hit greater than 33.

Burger is just not the sort of 30-homer man who produces a bunch of fortunate mortar photographs and wallscrapers. Quite the opposite, this dude hits nukes. Previously two seasons, Burger has 69 batted balls with an exit velocity of 110 mph or extra, which is eighth most within the league. He’s one among simply 9 hitters who’ve 5 or extra batted balls with an EV of 115 or higher, and one among solely eight to have damaged the 118-mph barrier even as soon as.

That sort of uncooked energy is out there solely to a choose few who’ve been judged worthy by their creator, and even then it’s a must to hit the weights and eat your spinach. Given a full season’s price of enjoying time, I’d anticipate Burger to go Invoice Mueller and Luke Voit to maneuver into second place all-time in profession dwelling runs amongst former Missouri State Bears. (Burger is simply 23 homers behind Voit for second, however 310 behind present record-holder Ryan Howard, so the leaderboard will solely shuffle a lot. They make ’em large and powerful in Starkvegas.)

When it comes to uncooked energy alone, Burger is genuinely in a category with guys like Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Austin Riley.

We all know that Schwarber and Riley are $20 million-a-year guys, and Alonso might be going to make much more when he indicators. Burger turns 29 years previous subsequent April, however as a result of accidents and the pandemic worn out three seasons of his minor league profession, he’s not even arbitration-eligible but.

Certainly the Rangers gave up a buttload with the intention to get him.

Ehhh, probably not.

A pleasant perk of this information breaking throughout Winter Conferences is having our supreme potentate of prospects, Eric Longenhagen, subsequent to me within the media room whereas I write. Right here’s a abstract of what Eric needed to say concerning the return:

Acosta bought promoted to Double-A in 2024, and he took to this weed-out stage with nice aplomb. He lower his strikeout charge by greater than a 3rd from 2023, backstopped by a 26% two-strike chase charge. That was solely two factors greater than his already-impressive 24% general chase charge. Eight dwelling runs in 104 video games won’t be on a regular basis starter energy, however due to a excessive common, aggressive stroll charge, and 23 doubles, Acosta posted a 113 wRC+, which is downright spectacular for a 21-year-old shortstop. He adopted that up with a powerful displaying within the Arizona Fall League.

Vargas put up good floor stats — .276/.321/.454 with 14 dwelling runs in 97 video games — at A-ball, however he missed the Rangers’ prospect listing partially due to his gag-inducing chase charges: 44% general, 59% with two strikes, 42% in opposition to fastballs. The direct quote from Eric was “some of the impatient hitters in all of professional baseball.” When he does make contact, he hits the ball within the air to the pull facet, which is sweet, however his lack of bodily projection (and arm power) will in all probability forestall him from sticking at shortstop, and until he finds out concerning the strike zone, he received’t hit sufficient to stay wherever else.

Mendoza, who turns 21 in January, is a 5-foot-11 lefty who dominated Low-A over 22 appearances (17 begins) earlier than ending the season at Excessive-A. His finest pitch is a bat-missing changeup, which become a weapon after a grip change earlier than the season. He’ll additionally throw a low-90s fastball and a 10-to-4 breaking ball within the low 80s. Satirically, Mendoza’s brief stature creates the looks of an uphill angle on his fastball that makes the pitch awkward to hit regardless of its pedestrian velocity. If that holds, he may transfer shortly and hit the majors as a back-end starter pretty shortly. However Eric additionally warns: “If his fastball velocity sags as his workload grows, then an end result extra like Tommy Milone is probably going.”

It’s greater than the Marlins gave as much as get Burger from the White Sox a 12 months and a half in the past, however the median end result for these prospects leaves Miami with two complementary large leaguers and a shortstop who might be good if he learns carry out the foundational act of hitting.

So why is Burger much less worthwhile than the opposite plus-plus uncooked energy guys? It’s a mix of small-to-medium-sized elements. (Ironic, I suppose.)

Burger is just not fairly as fly ball-happy as Schwarber, Alonso, or Riley, however by way of hitting the ball within the air to the pull facet — the shortcut to dinger-filled prosperity — he truly beats Riley fairly handily. However whereas he and Riley are each nominally third basemen, Burger offers up nearly a win of defensive worth per 12 months to his former division rival.

Then there’s the stroll charge. Burger’s profession strikeout charge is 27.5%, which is excessive, however we’ve typically accepted that strikeouts are the tradeoff for with the ability to hit a ball 115 miles an hour. Sadly, Burger doesn’t possess Schwarber’s preternatural reward for strike zone judgment, and even Alonso’s competence in strike zone judgment.

Even with the strikeouts, Burger hits for a good common: .250 on the button in every of his previous three seasons. (The most important league, uh, common in 2024 was .243.) However Alonso walks twice as a lot as Burger; Schwarber walks 3 times as a lot. Even with Burger’s penchant for getting hit by pitches, that involves discrepancies of roughly 20 and 50 factors, respectively, in OBP.

With all that stated, Burger’s nonetheless participant. He is likely to be a poor man’s slugger, however not that poor. Over the previous two seasons, Alonso’s been price 4.9 wins, Schwarber 4.4, and Burger 3.6 in about 80% of the enjoying time. RosterResource has Burger penciled in because the Rangers’ DH, which is sensible as a result of Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Jung have the 2 infield corners locked down. However in case one among them will get harm — which is a chance primarily based on the truth that it occurred final season — Burger can step in. Defensively, it shouldn’t be Plan A, however he can stand at third base with a glove with out horrifying young children.

However he’s going to hit arbitration in a 12 months, so the Marlins figured he was about to get costly, they usually’re too poor even for the poor man’s slugger.

A lot to the Rangers’ profit.