FanGraphs Power Rankings: August 4–17

After per week hiatus, these energy rankings are again… and nothing a lot has modified within the playoff image. The Nationwide League is especially stratified, even when the NL West is a bit nearer than it was two weeks in the past, and though there are just a few extra longshots within the American League, the 12-team subject seems fairly settled proper now.

Final yr, we revamped our energy rankings utilizing a modified Elo score system. In case you’re conversant in chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports activities part, you’ll know that Elo is a sublime answer that measures groups’ relative power and may be very reactive to current efficiency. To keep away from overweighting current outcomes in the course of the season, we weigh every group’s uncooked Elo rank utilizing our coin flip playoff odds (particularly, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh these in opposition to the uncooked Elo rating, growing in weight because the season progresses to a most of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Energy Rating” within the tables beneath. As one of the best and worst groups kind themselves out all through the season, they’ll filter to the highest and backside of the rankings, whereas the train will stay reactive to sizzling streaks or chilly snaps.

First up are the total rankings, introduced in a sortable desk. Under that, I’ve grouped the groups into tiers with feedback on a handful of golf equipment. You’ll discover that the official ordinal rankings don’t all the time match the tiers — there are occasions the place I take editorial liberties when grouping groups collectively — however typically, the ordering is constant. One factor to notice: The playoff odds listed within the tables beneath are our customary Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds which can be used within the rating method.

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Nicely, the Brewers lastly misplaced a recreation within the month of August. Their 14-game successful streak propelled their lead within the NL Central from one recreation forward of the Cubs on July 31 to an eight-game hole, they usually have one of the best file within the majors by six video games. They’ve barely felt the influence of Jackson Chourio’s hamstring damage, which he suffered just a few weeks in the past, as a result of practically everybody else of their lineup is on hearth. Seven of the eight Milwaukee gamers who’ve collected not less than 50 plate appearances in August are working a 125 wRC+ or greater for the month. The Brew Crew could have a possibility to really bury the Cubs within the standings, as these two rivals have a five-game collection on the schedule this week, starting with a doubleheader on Monday at Wrigley Discipline.

The Blue Jays prolonged their lead within the AL East to 5 video games by going 4-2 final week in opposition to the Cubs and Rangers. They may not be probably the most full group within the AL, however so long as their superstars are producing, they give the impression of being very exhausting to beat. To wit: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. blasted his sixth dwelling run of the month on Sunday, Bo Bichette has returned to type after his horrible 2024 season, and George Springer was simply activated off the IL on Saturday.

It took him just a few weeks to acclimate to the massive leagues, however starting with a 3-for-6 displaying on June 28, Roman Anthony has slashed .322/.433/.409 (a 158 wRC+) in 40 video games. And he’ll be anchoring this lineup for a very long time to come back, as Boston signed him to an enormous extension just a few weeks in the past. After treading water within the Wild Card race with a 3-3 file final week, the Purple Sox have an enormous four-game collection in opposition to the Yankees looming this weekend within the Bronx.

The Dodgers and Padres entered final weekend’s collection in Los Angeles on very totally different trajectories. After struggling a sweep by the hands of the Angels, the Dodgers dropped from first place within the NL West for the primary time since late April. In the meantime, San Diego had been surging, winners of 5 straight collection with a 14-3 file over its earlier 17 video games. Then, naturally, Los Angeles received all three video games to flip the momentum of each groups. The Dodgers as soon as once more lead the division, by two video games getting into this week, however this race is way from over, regardless of our playoff odds giving the Padres only a 16.1% shot at successful the West. We’ll see how these odds transfer after the 2 groups match up for 3 video games in San Diego this weekend of their remaining assembly of the common season.

The Phillies prolonged their lead within the NL East from half a recreation on August 4 to 5 video games getting into Monday, however they’re now dealing with the extended absence of Zack Wheeler, who was positioned on the IL on Sunday with a blood clot in his shoulder. The returns of each Aaron Nola and Alec Bohm from their respective accidents ought to soften the blow a bit, and Philadelphia ought to have the rotation depth to get by with out Wheeler within the common season. Nevertheless, it’s fairly attainable the Phillies received’t have their greatest pitcher again for October. That’s a significant concern in what needs to be a really aggressive NL postseason subject.

Even when the Cubs do nicely of their large five-game set in opposition to the Brewers this week, it in all probability received’t be sufficient to disturb Milwaukee’s possibilities of successful the division. As an alternative, efficiency ought to enable Chicago to regain a few of the momentum it has misplaced. When the Cubs took two out of three video games from the Pirates over the weekend, it marked simply the third time the North Siders have received a collection within the 4 weeks since July 21, a span of eight collection.

It seems just like the Tigers have put their July swoon behind them. They couldn’t full the four-game sweep of the Twins on Sunday, however they’ve now received three straight collection and have gone 13-7 over their final 20 video games. The Astros will go to Detroit this week in a showdown between two of one of the best groups within the AL.

The Mariners had an eight-game successful streak snapped on Wednesday, however their surge earned them a share of the AL West lead for a really transient second. From there, although, Seattle faltered once more, shedding each of its collection final week, in opposition to the Orioles and the Mets, and slipping to 1 1/2 video games behind the Astros within the West. Even so, issues are trying up for the Mariners: With Bryce Miller set to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, the M’s could have all 5 of their prime starters lively and wholesome for the primary time this season. In the meantime, after a frigid three weeks popping out of the All-Star break, Cal Raleigh is on hearth as soon as once more. Over his final 9 video games, Massive Dumper is slashing .303/.395/.818 with 5 dwelling runs and a 231 wRC+.

As for the Astros, you may chalk up one other damage on their lengthy ledger this season. This time it’s a shoulder damage to Josh Hader, which is predicted to sideline him for the remainder of the common season, although the door remains to be barely open for an October return if all the things heals nicely. In higher information, Yordan Alvarez is about to start a minor league rehab project this week.

Since being activated from the IL on August 5, Aaron Decide has posted a very-mortal-though-still-solid .229/.426/.429 slash line (140 wRC+). Irrespective of, the Yankees have gone 7-4 with Decide again within the lineup and have crawled again inside a half recreation of the Purple Sox and Mariners for the highest Wild Card spot within the AL.

Issues obtained fairly risky for New York’s Nationwide League group, because the Mets slogged by a brutal 2-14 stretch and let the Reds shut the hole significantly within the Wild Card standings. New York by no means let go of that remaining spot, and its back-to-back wins in opposition to the Mariners over the weekend offered a little bit little bit of respiration room, however that is nonetheless a a lot tighter race than anybody in Queens would love. The excellent news for the Mets is that their two Franciscos in are heating up; Lindor tallied 14 hits and three dwelling runs final week, and Alvarez has posted a .323/.408/.645 slash line (193 wRC+) since being recalled from Triple-A on July 21.

With the Mets stumbling, the Reds regarded like they had been poised to drag right into a playoff place, particularly after they received their collection in opposition to the Phillies heading into final weekend. However Cincinnati bumped into the Brewers at precisely the fallacious time, shedding the primary two video games earlier than snapping Milwaukee’s 14-game successful streak in additional innings on Sunday. Sadly, as quickly because the Reds activated Hunter Greene off the IL, Chase Burns switched locations with him after struggling a flexor pressure in his throwing elbow. For now, supervisor Terry Francona is hoping for the best-case situation, that Burns can resume throwing quickly and return earlier than the tip of August. Nevertheless, Reds followers shouldn’t get too excited simply but, because the group will certainly be cautious with the 22-year-old’s rehab and nearly actually restrict his workload the remainder of the way in which.

The three groups on this tier are desperately attempting to hold on within the AL Wild Card race. The Guardians fell to three 1/2 video games behind the Yankees for the ultimate playoff spot after getting swept by the Braves at dwelling over the weekend. It was Cleveland’s first collection loss since late July. Even with these three losses, the Guards nonetheless have the AL’s greatest file since July 7 (23-12). In the meantime, the Royals have been practically pretty much as good over that very same span (20-13). Following a three-game sweep of White Sox, Kansas Metropolis enters this week only a half-game behind Cleveland within the standings.

On the opposite facet of the coin, the Rangers are in the course of what could possibly be season-crushing skid. On July 27, Texas reached a season-best six video games over .500; since then, the group has gone 6-13 and slipped beneath .500 once more. This week in all probability represents the final gasp of hope for the Rangers to return to the Wild Card race. They journey to Kansas Metropolis for 4 video games earlier than internet hosting the Guardians for a three-game set this weekend.

It was enjoyable whereas it lasted, however you may in all probability stick a fork in any hope of a shock Wild Card run from the Marlins. After sweeping the Yankees three weekends in the past to achieve .500, they’ve received simply 4 of their final 14 and are actually seven video games behind the Mets for the ultimate playoff spot. To make issues worse, Kyle Stowers, Miami’s greatest hitter this season, was simply positioned on the IL with an indirect pressure. A minimum of the Marlins can level to their aggressive stretch in July and dream about returning to rivalry sooner relatively than later.

It’s far too little, too late, however the Braves are lastly on a roll. They swept the Guardians final weekend and are actually 9-2 over their final 11 video games. The important thing to this late-season surge has been the resurgence of Michael Harris II. After making some swing changes in early July, he’s slashing .386/.402/.719 (210 wRC+) because the All-Star break. If Atlanta doesn’t have to fret about Harris’ bat transferring ahead, it offers the group one much less factor to handle in what has all of a sudden turn into a vastly necessary offseason.

To not low cost what Harris has accomplished currently, however the two greatest hitters in baseball in the course of the second half of the season each play for the Athletics. You in all probability know concerning the heater that Nick Kurtz is on, however Shea Langeliers has been nearly pretty much as good over the past month. Each of these guys blasted dwelling runs on Sunday — for Langeliers, it was his main league-leading 14th because the All-Star break. The A’s might want to determine the way to pitch of their non permanent dwelling in Sacramento, however their offense actually seems prefer it’s for actual.

The Twins’ anticipated post-deadline crash hasn’t precisely arrived. Certain, they went 2-5 in opposition to the Yankees and Tigers final week, however they’re solely a recreation beneath .500 since they offered practically each spare half off their roster. The implausible play of Luke Keaschall is a giant cause why they’re nonetheless taking part in like a aggressive group; he’s posted a 149 wRC+ since being activated off the IL on August 5. The largest baseball information in Minnesota final week was the announcement that the Pohlad household will stay principal homeowners of the group after exploring a sale. The optics of this announcement stink. The Twins simply traded away an enormous chunk of the roster and dumped Carlos Correa off the payroll. To show round and say this teardown was “a part of the method” seems like an extension of the identical penny pinching that led to those previous two disappointing seasons. The hope established in 2023, after they received their first playoff collection in twenty years, seems like an extended, very long time in the past.

With a pair of collection wins over the Cardinals and Diamondbacks final week, the Rockies are actually taking part in forward of the traditionally unhealthy tempo of the 2024 White Sox. Colorado has to win simply seven video games earlier than the tip of the season to keep away from tying Chicago’s file of futility. That actually feels doable, even when the Rockies have one of the tough remaining schedules in baseball.