He’s Not Your Manic Pixie Dream Boyd

I began writing this text simply earlier than the playoffs started, and I framed it to myself as a trailer for an early-2000s romantic comedy. I assumed Matthew Boyd and the Cleveland Guardians match the rom-com components surprisingly effectively. After his second breakup along with his ex (the Tigers), Boyd was harm (recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure), unemployed (a free agent), and brief on suitors (unsigned effectively into the season). When he had his meet cute (signed a contract) with the Guardians, they had been profitable (greatest file within the AL) however one thing was lacking (beginning pitching). Sparks flew immediately. Boyd pitched to a 2.72 ERA in eight begins. Cleveland received six of these eight video games.

Now, the Guardians are only a baseball staff, standing in entrance of a Boyd, asking him to start out within the ALDS. Substitute Boyd with Kate Hudson and make him a journalist as a substitute of a baseball participant, and also you’ve received your film. A couple of Boyd. To All of the Boyds I’ve Liked Earlier than. You get it.

Sadly for me (and fortuitously for the remainder of you), my colleague Kiri Oler got here out with a wonderful piece not so way back that simply so occurred to make use of a Kate Hudson rom-com as a framing machine. I used to be delighted that two completely different writers thought to put in writing about Kate Hudson on a web site that normally couldn’t have any much less to do with Kate Hudson, not to mention the truth that we each thought to do it in the identical week. On the identical time, I used to be upset I’d spent a lot time developing with “Boyd” puns for nothing.

Fortunately, that setback turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Free of the constraints of a formulaic style, I noticed I by no means ought to have decreased both Boyd or the Guardians to a cliché. Tropes exist for a motive; when used correctly, they’re a helpful literary machine. And but it’s how far this particular playoff pitcher and this particular playoff staff stray from any type of typical script that makes them each attention-grabbing.

Slightly over three months in the past, Boyd’s future was utterly up within the air. He was a yr faraway from Tommy John surgical procedure. He hadn’t pitched a qualifying season since 2020 or a full certified season since 2019. He was 33 years outdated, and accidents had been the defining theme since his age-30 season in 2021. Now, loads of free brokers handle to land a contract throughout an offseason by which they’re recovering from surgical procedure; Tyler Mahle and Brandon Woodruff are a few current examples. The groups that signed them, the Rangers and Brewers, respectively, had been keen to simply accept the dangers to reap the potential rewards. Sadly for Boyd, no staff had been keen to take such danger on him, or at the very least no staff had been keen to take sufficient of a danger, financially talking, for Boyd to place pen to paper; nobody supplied him a significant league deal this previous offseason.

Lastly, on June 29, 2024, Boyd inked a significant league take care of the Guardians. Six weeks later, he completed his rehab and returned to a giant league mound. Lower than two months after that, he’s going to be the ALDS Sport 2 starter for the second-best staff within the American League. That’s not normally the way it works.

The Sport 2 starters for the opposite three groups that earned a first-round bye are 2024 All-Star Cristopher Sánchez, blockbuster commerce deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty, and one of many highest-paid pitchers in baseball, Carlos Rodón. All three of them have began within the postseason earlier than. Boyd has not. Boyd has additionally by no means been an All-Star, and he hasn’t been a part of a blockbuster commerce since he was one of many prospects the Blue Jays despatched to the Tigers for David Value in 2015. I can’t say with 100% certainty that Boyd isn’t one of many highest-paid pitchers in baseball, however that’s solely as a result of the small print of his 2024 contract haven’t but been reported, which successfully tells you every part it’s worthwhile to know. If Boyd had been an even bigger deal (and if he had signed an even bigger deal), extra folks would care that his assured wage on RosterResource continues to be listed as TBD.

Nonetheless, essentially the most uncommon factor about Boyd as a Sport 2 starter is definitely the truth that he wasn’t even on a staff for the primary three months of the season. I regarded again at each Sport 1 and a pair of starter from each postseason collection of the previous 15 years, and I solely discovered two others who had been unsigned on Opening Day: Dallas Keuchel of the 2019 Braves and Pedro Martinez of the 2009 Phillies. Until Boyd is hiding a Cy Younger Award, some All-Star appearances, and a robust postseason résumé behind his closet, he isn’t corresponding to Keuchel or Martinez. Quite the opposite, Boyd’s résumé is so sparse that it permits me to attract a parallel between Keuchel and one of many biggest pitchers of all time with out sounding ridiculous.

To be clear, none of that is to say that Boyd is undeserving of this chance. By way of eight begins and 39 2/3 innings pitched within the common season, he put up a 2.72 ERA and three.29 FIP. From his debut on August 13 to the tip of the season, his 0.9 WAR led the Guardians pitching employees. If Boyd had maintained that degree of efficiency over 32 begins, his 3.6 WAR would have ranked ninth amongst AL pitchers, in between Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi. I’m not saying he would have stored up that tempo, essentially; I’m simply making an attempt to contextualize how effectively he pitched within the eight begins he did make.

So how did the Guardians find yourself ready the place (a) they completed with the second-best file within the AL and (b) their no. 2 starter is a midseason pickup from the facet of the highway? Coming into play on June 29, the Guardians had the very best file within the AL. Their playoff odds had nearly tripled since Opening Day. They had been flying excessive, however that they had one obvious weak point. Their beginning rotation had a 4.42 ERA, twelfth within the AL; that group’s 4.72 FIP ranked final, as did its 2.3 WAR. Shane Bieber was finished for the season. Gavin Williams had been on the IL all yr. Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen had been struggling badly. In the meantime, Cleveland’s largest offseason signings had been Ben Vigorous and Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco was simply consuming innings. Vigorous was enjoying effectively, but it surely was arduous to not assume he was pitching over his head. The one starter who regarded like he genuinely belonged on the highest staff within the AL was Tanner Bibee. The Guardians took an opportunity on Boyd as a result of they had been operating out of choices.

They received Williams again from the IL in July. They promoted rookie Joey Cantillo later that month. The one starter they added on the deadline was an injured Alex Cobb. These three, together with Bibee, Vigorous, and Boyd, made up the Guardians rotation in September. For sure, the entrance workplace did little to handle a key space of weak point. The rotation completed the season ranked twenty fourth in ERA, twenty fourth in FIP, and twenty seventh in WAR.

So, the query persists: How did this staff get to date with so little from its starters? The reply, in fact, is the bullpen. The Guardians had been one among two groups to complete with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR in 2024. (The Marlins had been the opposite.) On this age of openers and expanded bullpens, it’s turning into extra frequent for at the very least one or two groups to complete with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR in a given yr, but it surely stays exceedingly uncommon for a great staff to get extra worth out of it bullpen than its rotation. Relationship again to at the very least World Conflict II, solely 19 groups have completed a season with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR, and solely two of these groups made the playoffs. Heck, solely two completed above .500: the 2024 Guardians and the 2020 Braves. That makes this yr’s Guardians the one staff to ever make the playoffs in a full season with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR:

When you want extra conventional stats in your enjoyable information, the Guardians even have the most important distinction between their starters’ profitable proportion (.467) and relievers’ profitable proportion (.778) of any staff to ever make the playoffs (since at the very least 1945). They’ve the very best relievers’ profitable proportion and the bottom starters’ profitable proportion of any postseason staff in that point interval. And this isn’t just a few staff that snuck into the playoffs by the pores and skin of its enamel; it is a division-winning membership with a first-round bye. Like I stated, Boyd is an unconventional playoff pitcher, and the Guardians are unconventional playoff staff.

If I had been sticking with the rom-com theme, I’d need to discover a approach to convey a few blissful ending. Boyd and the Guardians must pull off a powerful victory over his former staff and their newer, youthful, flashier southpaw within the ALDS. In fact, I can’t assure that. After profitable Sport 1 on Saturday, Cleveland’s probabilities of profitable the collection are at 72.6%. Everyone knows this Tigers staff has come again from far worse odds.

All the things that makes Boyd and the Guardians such an uncommon story additionally makes sustaining their success seem to be a high-wire act. Boyd has been the beneficiary of each good protection (+2 OAA whereas he was pitching) and unhealthy protection (4 of the 16 runs he allowed had been unearned) to assist maintain his ERA beneath 3.00. Lots of his peripheral numbers are nonetheless spectacular, particularly his 3.10 xERA and 29.7% whiff price, but it surely’s essential to recollect we’re working with a minuscule pattern measurement. Boyd’s 4.85 profession ERA throughout greater than 900 innings of labor looms massive in comparison with his 2.72 ERA in lower than 40 innings this season. His 8.0% HR/FB ratio is effectively under his 13.4% profession common, and his 0.66 GB/FB would rank second to final amongst certified pitchers. Whereas he would possibly be capable of maintain the ball within the yard at Progressive Area, it’s straightforward to think about him operating into bother at a unique ballpark in a future collection. What’s extra, PitchingBot and Stuff+ agree his total stuff is effectively under common and the worst it’s been since at the very least 2020.

In the meantime, the Guardians might need had the bottom bullpen FIP in baseball, however in addition they had the widest damaging hole between their 2.57 ERA and three.30 FIP (-0.73). Few would doubt that this staff has an exceptional ‘pen. We noticed as a lot in 4 1/3 scoreless innings from Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Emmanuel Clase on Saturday. Nonetheless, that doesn’t imply Cleveland’s bullpen hasn’t been the recipient of excellent fortune. The Guardians received 92 video games in 2024 as a result of their relievers put up the very best bullpen profitable proportion of any staff since 1976. The slightest slip-up from the arm barn might spell catastrophe.

So no, this isn’t a rom-com. The characters aren’t archetypes. Their story hasn’t been predictable. The ultimate act hasn’t been scripted but. And as a lot as I like romance, Kate Hudson, and a great, protected consolation watch, I’m trying ahead to Matthew Boyd’s first-ever playoff begin much more.