Houston Signs Tatsuya Imai… At Least for Now

Yesterday, the New York Submit’s Jon Heyman reported that Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai has agreed to a three-year, $54 million pact with the Houston Astros (ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the size). The deal consists of choose outs after every of the primary two years, basically a “show it” contract that offers Imai the chance to re-enter free company ought to he shortly reveal that he’s higher than the open market appeared to assume he was throughout this posting interval. Talking of the posting system, be aware that the Astros may even pay Imai’s Japanese membership, the Seibu Lions, simply shy of $10 million underneath the present MLB/NPB posting settlement’s formulation (20% of the contract’s first $25 million, 17.5% of the subsequent $25 million, and 15% of something over $50 million). The deal additionally options $9 million in escalator clauses that kick in as Imai approaches and crosses the 100-inning threshold throughout his first two seasons, bringing Houston’s complete potential expenditure to roughly $73 million.

This deal is shorter and fewer profitable than was typically anticipated by pundits (together with yours actually) when it turned recognized that Imai could be posted; Ben Clemens forecast a five-year, $100 million deal, whereas our median crowdsource estimate was for 4 years and $64 million earlier than the posting payment. Imai is 27-years-old, he’s coming off of his greatest professional season after a number of consecutive years of improved strike-throwing, and he checks a number of of the visible scouting and information analytics bins you need from a mid-rotation starter. What may very well be the rationale(s) for the discrepancy between our collective expectations and Imai’s precise payday, and the place does he match into Houston’s rotation?

Let’s revisit the background on Imai. He was the Seibu Lions’ 2016 first spherical select of a highschool in Utsunomiya Metropolis, a metro roughly the scale of Tucson that’s about 80 miles north of Tokyo. He spent a 12 months within the minors after which hopped proper into the Lions rotation as a 20-year-old in 2018. All through his early and mid-20s, Imai was a walk-prone (however efficient) starter. He handled a number of illnesses in 2022 (together with a proper adductor damage), then took a step ahead as a strike-thrower and an innings-eater in every of the subsequent three seasons, changing into one in all NPB’s greatest arms. Throughout the 2022-25 seasons, Imai halved his stroll fee (from the 14% space to 7%), expanded his repertoire, and improved his fastball velocity at the same time as his innings depend grew to north of 160 frames. He’s had 4 consecutive seasons with an ERA underneath 2.50 (even whereas he was wild), and in 2025, he posted a 1.92 ERA and a couple of.01 FIP.

And Imai may not be finished enhancing. He has a free, whippy form of athleticism that helps him generate large, misleading arm velocity (his arm stroke really tends to be slightly late), and whereas he’s clearly a gifted lower-body athlete, he doesn’t all the time appear to be he’s getting down the mound so far as he’s most likely able to. He could also be a tweak away from having higher stuff than his already stable five-pitch combine. A nasty mid-80s slider with sharp two-planed motion carried out like a plus pitch in 2025 and is the perfect of these choices. Imai throws each a splitter and a changeup (the splitter is the newer of the 2, and its utilization backed up late in 2025) with much less constant execution than his fastball and slider. On uncommon events, he’ll dial down the velo to form his breaker to play extra like a curveball.

A few of these pitches (particularly the changeup) are discernible early of their flight, which is one other factor which may enhance with a change to Imai’s place on the rubber or to his stride path, each of that are widespread year-to-year alterations for large league pitchers to make.

You’ll be able to quibble with Imai’s relative lack of dimension (he’s listed at 5-foot-11) or features of his supply, however he definitely appears to be like like an enormous league starter from a uncooked stuff and athleticism standpoint, he has demonstrated MLB starter-quality stamina and strike-throwing for the final a number of seasons, and he may conceivably take one other step ahead if even one facet of his supply could be polished in his late 20s. I had him graded as a great crew’s fourth starter in the beginning of the offseason. From a pure worth matching standpoint, that assumed Imai would command one thing within the $20-$25 million AAV vary, most likely (I assumed) on a longer-term deal due to his age. Whereas the mixed worth of the whole potential contract and posting payment ($73 million over three years) is in that vary, the deal’s comparatively quick size maybe alerts that groups had been extra apprehensive about Imai’s matriculation, whereas the choose out clauses level to a spot between Imai and Co.’s self-assessment and that of his suitors, with Imai and Boras Corp clearly considering there’s an opportunity he out-pitches the deal instantly and might make extra on an extended contract subsequent offseason.

What is perhaps inflicting that hole? For one, every time we’re speaking a few Japanese pitcher who depends closely on his breaking ball to generate whiffs, there’s an added ingredient of danger and variability as a result of the MLB and NPB baseballs are barely totally different. Refined modifications to the seam top or the tackiness of the baseball may influence the standard of a pitcher’s stuff, or at the least power them to make an adjustment, and it’s typically assumed this is applicable most to breaking pitches. Imai’s slider is his most damaging providing (a virtually elite 47% miss fee with a 41% chase fee), and in the event you assume that there’s danger of that pitch enjoying nearer to common with an MLB ball, I may see being concerned that he received’t strike out a batter per inning over right here like he was in Japan.

Maybe most significantly, we will query whether or not Imai’s command has actually improved over the previous few years, or whether or not he’s liable to being walk-prone on our shores. The chase fee in NPB throughout the whole league is 32%, in comparison with 28% in MLB. Hitters over there are merely extra more likely to bail out pitchers who aren’t working within the strike zone, and while you elevate your fastball with uncommon velocity (for NPB, anyway) the way in which Imai does, it’s attainable to overperform as a strike-thrower relative to your true expertise. Imai’s arm stroke is commonly slightly late relative to when his entrance foot lands, which is incessantly a trait of pitchers whose fastballs sail on them. That stated, I’m personally optimistic about Imai’s athleticism and fluidity, and assume that is one thing that may be tweaked if it seems to be an issue.

Lastly, there’s the query of the cadence of an MLB pitcher’s workload (as soon as each 5 days) versus what Japanese pitchers expertise (as soon as per week), although this is applicable to each pitcher coming over and never simply Imai. Whether or not or not the Astros plan to have an even bigger rotation to accommodate this and permit Imai to proceed pitching as soon as per week, or how he’ll carry out if requested to work extra incessantly, we simply received’t know till the season begins.

The Astros have now added two outstanding new faces to their steady of starters in Imai and commerce acquisition Mike Burrows, three in the event you depend KBO kickback arm Ryan Weiss, who James Fegan and I had evaluated extra as a swingman. With Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier because the anchors, Imai at the moment must carry out like a no. 3/4 starter for Houston’s rotation to really feel like a contender’s group. That’s on the excessive finish of what I believe is possible for him, and if Imai finally ends up pitching that nicely (like he’s a 3-4 WAR starter slightly than the 2-2.5 WAR man I believe he’s), then he’ll solely be a one-year answer in Houston, as performing to that degree will give him incentive to choose out and re-enter the market a 12 months from now.