How Cal Raleigh Learned To Stop Swinging But Keep Hitting Bombs

Cal Raleigh has quite a lot of energy. That’s all the time been his calling card, at the least on offense. In every of his three full main league seasons, he’s posted a below-average OBP and an above-average offensive line. In cavernous T-Cell Park, the toughest place to hit in baseball, his 34 dwelling runs and .436 slugging proportion in 2024 had been downright titanic. This 12 months, although, he’s tapped into one thing new.

Or, properly, his outcomes are completely one thing new. One very attention-grabbing factor about Raleigh’s spectacular 2025: It hasn’t come from extra uncooked energy. Most exit velocity? Nothing new for Raleigh. Neither is his common exit velocity, nor his hard-hit price, each of that are broadly in keeping with 2024. His bat pace is similar. When he’s attempting to hit a house run, he’s doing it the best way he all the time has.

However whereas his skill to hit baseballs arduous is likely to be the identical because it’s all the time been, he’s demonstrating that skill extra typically than ever earlier than. He’s each placing the ball within the air and pulling his elevated contact extra continuously, and extra of his batted balls are barrels, too. He’s hanging out much less continuously, with a career-high contact price and career-low swinging strike price.

Nothing is ever so easy that it’s pushed by one factor, however I feel there’s one necessary change driving Raleigh’s surge. It’s one thing he’s been working towards for a number of years, actually. When Raleigh is forward within the depend and pitchers throw him meatballs over the guts of the plate, he’s swinging lower than ever earlier than:

Wait, that doesn’t sound like a great factor. Raleigh used to feast when he obtained forward within the depend, unleashing his fearsome swing nearly every time he noticed a pitch to drive. Now he’s swinging at a league-average price. These are the very best pitches within the recreation to be hitting. If you wish to show extra energy with out getting stronger or swinging tougher, providing at extra of those is simply the ticket. However Raleigh is swinging at them much less whereas hitting for extra energy. What provides?

What provides is that the statistic I simply gave you is a bit deceptive with out further context. Certain, Raleigh isn’t taking fairly as a lot benefit of the simple pitches he sees when he’s already forward within the depend. However he’s additionally swinging at dangerous pitches in these conditions much less continuously. Listed here are a number of methods of measuring that: swings within the “shadow-out” zone, which is simply off the perimeters of the plate, swings within the “chase” zone simply previous that, and swings on all pitches which are out of the zone:

Not all three are profession lows, however they’re all indicative of a special strategy. Raleigh has all the time been a high-swing man. Even this 12 months, he’s chasing pitches outdoors of the strike zone extra typically than the league common. However in 2025, he’s holding again like by no means earlier than.

One doable rationalization right here is that Raleigh is studying to command the strike zone. Possibly he’s found out plate self-discipline after years of struggling to differentiate balls from strikes. He’s strolling extra typically and hanging out much less continuously. However I don’t suppose that’s fairly proper as a result of, once more, his swing price on pitches over the guts of the plate has declined. As an alternative, what we’re seeing from Raleigh just isn’t a lot an enchancment in talent however a change in strategy.

Think about two forms of swings, one good and one dangerous. Swinging at a pitch over the guts of the plate? That’s good. Swinging at a pitch that’s not even close to the border of the zone? That’s dangerous. These are coronary heart swing price and chase/waste swing price, respectively. The upper the hole between these two, the higher a batter has accomplished on the core perform of pitch choice: Attacking the easy-to-hit ones and shedding those which are clearly out of the zone. Raleigh isn’t enhancing on this entrance. In actual fact, he’s at a profession low, at the least if you happen to exclude his abbreviated 2021 debut:

You may consider plate self-discipline as the mix of two separate axes. First, there’s pitch recognition. The perfect guys at this – Kyle Tucker, Corey Seager, Aaron Choose, Juan Soto – are consultants at telling strikes from balls. That is the toughest a part of commanding the strike zone. In case you have this talent, good for you! It seems to be very troublesome to be taught, with few hitters taking huge leaps ahead from one 12 months to the subsequent. Raleigh isn’t any exception, as that ratio of swings at hittable pitches to dangerous chases suggests.

The second a part of plate self-discipline is simply propensity to swing. On the excessive, a hitter might simply select by no means to swing in a given depend; then he’d have a 0% chase price in that depend it doesn’t matter what. This isn’t the identical as accurately figuring out balls from strikes. Tucker and Seager swing much more than Soto does regardless of their equally elite skill to choose up on what the pitcher is throwing. James Wooden sports activities an affordable chase price, however that’s partially as a result of he nearly by no means swings; he has one of many lowest coronary heart swing charges within the league.

Altering your skill on that first axis is, as I discussed, practically unattainable. Everybody would do it if they might, and one path is clearly higher than the opposite. The second axis, propensity to swing, is extra difficult. Swinging extra total isn’t inherently good or dangerous. If Soto and Lars Nootbaar began swinging much less, they might nearly definitely damage their numbers. If Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper began swinging extra, they’d probably see a downturn in manufacturing, as a result of they’re already fairly aggressive.

That brings us again to Raleigh. Right here’s a easy mannequin in my head: Raleigh is a low-contact, high-power hitter. These two issues are basic. He’s not selecting to be one or the opposite, he simply is. I gathered a cohort of hitters who regarded, in a broad sense, like Raleigh in 2024. These had been hitters who batted at the least 500 occasions, posted a contact price at the least half a normal deviation under league common, and posted an remoted energy at the least half a normal deviation above league common. In plain English, we’re speaking about low-contact, high-power hitters.

That gave me a bunch of 15 hitters from 2024: Raleigh, Harper, Choose, Willy Adames, Shohei Ohtani, Shea Langeliers, Eugenio Suárez, Rafael Devers, Jake Burger, Colton Cowser, Marcell Ozuna, Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernández, Brent Rooker, Elly De La Cruz. It’s a small pattern, after all, however all of those guys batted a ton in 2024, and I’m largely in enthusiastic about these teams when it comes to archetypes. With these 15 in hand, I separated them by their swing charges – low, medium, and excessive. Let’s put it this manner: For hitters like Raleigh, decrease swing charges appear to work wonders:

Certain, swinging much less leads to some extra strikeouts. Nevertheless it additionally grants batters much more walks in return, and it’s additionally related to the next slugging proportion. It’s not arduous to think about why that is likely to be the case: For those who swing rather a lot with a low contact price, you’ll find yourself behind in a ton of counts, and the sorts of pitches you see whereas behind usually are not conducive to hitting for energy. All the gamers we’re taking a look at nonetheless managed to crush the ball. For those who’re a high-swing, low-contact hitter, in any case, you higher have some energy. However amongst whiff-prone boppers, the group that swings much less celebrates extra.

Certainly, the proof that Raleigh is making this alteration is in every single place. The best approach to consider it’s that he’s by no means spent the next share of his time within the batter’s field forward within the depend than he has this season. Like most hitters, he hits for lots extra energy when forward within the depend. When he places the ball in play whereas forward within the depend, he has a profession .816 slugging proportion. When he places the ball in play whereas behind, he slugs a mere .508.

What causes that hole? It’s every part. Pitchers must enterprise into the guts of the plate extra continuously when the hitter is forward. Hitters can zone in on a selected pitch or space, taking in the event that they don’t get precisely what they’re in search of. That’s a luxurious they don’t have when behind within the depend. Heck, hitters can simply swing tougher if they need, and lots of do. It’s not a lot that Raleigh has discovered easy methods to hit when forward within the depend in 2025; he’s all the time identified how to try this. He’s simply getting forward extra continuously, which is giving him extra probabilities to point out off the easiest a part of his recreation.

Bear in mind how I stated that he’s swinging much less continuously at hittable pitches when forward within the depend? It’s true from a frequency standpoint, little doubt. However regardless of that, he’s taking extra hacks at hittable pitches per plate look than he ever has earlier than. That’s as a result of he’s getting to those advantageous spots extra typically. He’s seeing extra fastballs over the guts of the plate, and swinging at extra fastballs over the guts of the plate, too.

Does all of this imply that Raleigh goes to keep up his 170 wRC+? No approach. However I do suppose it means he’s very probably to enhance on his numbers as in comparison with the previous, and he was already fairly good previously. For hitters like Raleigh – highly effective however whiff-prone – there’s a transparent profit to swinging much less continuously. It forces pitchers to satisfy you within the strike zone extra continuously or threat dropping you to a stroll – and loads of pitchers aren’t prepared to take that threat. The price isn’t big, as a result of despite the fact that Raleigh is surrendering some swings at hittable pitches, he’s producing extra pitches to hit by getting forward within the depend extra typically.

Despite the fact that nothing else about his recreation has modified, a tough translation of his new strategy says that this ought to be price round 5-10 factors of wRC+. As Leo Morgenstern famous at present, Raleigh is DH’ing extra continuously this 12 months, which certainly additionally provides to his offensive prowess; it’s simpler to maintain your physique contemporary to hit if you aren’t all the time enjoying essentially the most demanding defensive place on the sector. Mix these two issues, and naturally Raleigh is hitting higher.

Can he hold this strategy up? I don’t see any purpose why not, at the least within the quick time period. Baseball is a recreation of changes, and pitchers should attempt one thing to disrupt Raleigh’s present type. Possibly they’ll assault the zone early, hoping that his latest adjustments result in extra takes and pitchers’ counts. Possibly they’ll change to attacking with in-zone secondaries, simply to offer him a special look. He’s been feasting on every part this 12 months, however notably on fastballs. Possibly they’ll discover a gap in his swing and pressure him to alter one thing else to regulate.

Predictions are arduous to make, particularly concerning the future. However I can say this indisputably: Raleigh was swinging an excessive amount of earlier than. It wasn’t a lot a matter of dangerous pitch recognition; he simply got here up there eager to hit. Dialing that propensity again has made him extra harmful. He was already a profession 111 wRC+ hitter, and now I feel he’s higher than that. Mix that together with his elite protection, and we is likely to be trying on the new Finest Catcher in Baseball. Possibly different energy hitters ought to comply with the Large Dumper’s lead and simply swing rather less.