Is now the moment to make a move for Jimmy Butler?

This thought experiment explores the hypothetical state of affairs of a Jimmy Butler commerce, analyzing its potential on-court advantages, monetary ramifications, and what it may sign for the Celtics’ future decision-making.

Jimmy Butler to the Celtics may have occurred earlier than — twice, really.

First, again at his draft in 2011, then President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge was near deciding on him however ended up with JaJuan Johnson after a commerce with the Nets. A number of years later, Ainge may have traded for Jimmy Butler utilizing the draft picks that changed into Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. And but, Jimmy Butler to the Celtics by no means occurred… up to now.

As you may need heard, Jimmy Butler has reportedly requested to be traded out of Miami, searching for a spot to compete for a title. And what higher place for that than the Boston Celtics? From his perspective, this may seem like the proper alternative.

You is likely to be questioning—how and extra importantly why may the Celtics commerce for Butler, and whether or not it is smart to take a bet on the 35-year-old ahead. Effectively, stroll with me into this parallel universe (that might be a not too far actuality).

The how

The Celtics are within the second apron, so they can not ship a number of gamers in a commerce to match salaries and tackle further wage past what’s already on their books. This is able to seemingly imply a simple swap between Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler, probably with draft picks concerned, probably going from the Warmth to the Celtics. As we converse, the Warmth have solely two picks to ship (2030 and 2031 first spherical) however they might transfer issues round to construct a greater supply.

Why it would make sense on the court docket

What are the Celtics battling this season?

Producing free throws (twenty first within the league)
Attending to the rim (twenty eighth within the league)
Forcing turnovers (twenty third within the league)
Creating transition alternatives (twenty fifth within the league)

What’s Jimmy Butler good at? Effectively, the entire above.

Offensively, he’s onerous to cease from attending to the rim. This 12 months, half of his shot makes an attempt have come on the rim, the place he converts at a 70% price—regardless of Miami’s common spacing. Think about the harm Butler may do with the elite spacing supplied by the Celtics.

He’s additionally an absolute menace with regards to drawing fouls. He generates taking pictures fouls on 23% of his makes an attempt—higher than Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo. This alone may increase the Celtics’ offense considerably when their exterior pictures aren’t falling. For context, Butler averages 1.31 factors per shot try, in comparison with 1.10 for Jaylen Brown.

Defensively, the Celtics have struggled to create turnovers and transition alternatives. Jimmy Butler’s elite anticipation and skill to disrupt passing lanes could be a big increase. Traditionally, he has excelled at pressuring ball handlers and forcing steals.

In transition, whereas the Celtics would miss Jaylen Brown’s ending capability, Butler’s playmaking would compensate. Mathematically, based mostly on on-court impression, Butler may assist remodel lots of the Celtics’ present weaknesses into strengths.

Nonetheless, the Celtics could be lacking Jaylen Brown point-of-attack protection. This commerce would enhance the off-ball protection and may result in extra transition, however the Celtics might be out of their go-to-guy to cease the opponents celebrity. Would Jimmy Butler have the ability to decelerate Luka Doncic as a lot as Jaylen Brown did over the last NBA Finals? I doubt it.

Nonetheless, Jrue Vacation or Jayson Tatum may take over the celebrity project, whereas Jimmy Butler would stay off-ball, prepared to leap on passes.

As for issues about match, Butler has a smaller utilization price than Brown, and his driving and post-up recreation would thrive inside the Celtics’ spacing. He wouldn’t clog their offense or disrupt the move.

And let’s not neglect Jaylen Brown’s remark that the Celtics “hunt seals” on offense. Jimmy Butler is an elite hunter.

Why it would make monetary sense

The Celtics’ monetary state of affairs is advanced. They’re within the second apron and are projected to stay there subsequent season. Past the same old penalties, staying within the second apron for 3 years inside a five-year span has vital penalties: “if groups stay within the second apron for any three years in a five-year interval, their upcoming first-round draft choose is mechanically moved to the tip of the primary spherical.”

The Celtics at the moment have 5 gamers incomes over $30 million yearly for the following two years. Transferring Jrue Vacation’s contract could be troublesome, Derrick White’s deal is simply too invaluable to commerce, and Kristaps Porziņģis offers essential spacing and rim safety—plus his current harm diminishes his commerce worth. In some unspecified time in the future, the Celtics could face a alternative between their two franchise stars.

Buying and selling for Jimmy Butler might be an early (and probably untimely) manner out. Whereas Butler’s participant choice looms, his expiring contract may present the Celtics with monetary flexibility within the close to future—all whereas protecting them in rivalry.

Nonetheless, what’s going to occur to Jimmy Butler’s subsequent contract? Will he need out of the Celtics? Will he ask an excessive amount of — making it unimaginable for the Celtics to maintain him blissful? Jimmy Butler is already 35 years outdated, his greatest years are prior to now, whereas Jaylen Brown peak is but to return.

Will this gamble of Jimmy Butler deliver the Celtics extra finance flexibility — or will they be caught in a extra problematic state of affairs, with a participant that not too long ago appeared unimaginable to maintain blissful.

What concerning the intangibles?

Overlook the court docket and the finance for a second… how would the Celtics gamers and training employees react to equivalent to tsunamis within the locker room? The Celtics present success has been construct round Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum — would this even work with one of many Jay’s out?

On high of Jaylen’s departure, would the Celtics have the ability to combine Jimmy Butler after such a monumental transfer? Jimmy has been an enemy for the final years. How may the Celtics entrance workplace commerce for him in opposition to one among their brothers?

There are clear doubts that Jimmy Butler would match effectively with a bunch that simply noticed its Finals MVP and longest-tenured participant traded for him. And it’s uncertain that Brad Stevens would break aside the group he spent the offseason solidifying.

Nonetheless, a possible Butler commerce serves as a reminder that troublesome selections are on the horizon. Keep in mind that, on high of the overloaded payroll, the Boston Celtics are at the moment on the market. With this commerce, the present possession may make the monetary state of affairs extra interesting for potential consumers.

Whereas such a earth-shattering deal could not make sense this season, it might be a template for what’s to return.