Josh Naylor Reunites With Seattle on a Five-Year Deal

Technically, the beginning gun for the 2025-26 offseason already fired. Again on November 5, Leody Taveras signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Orioles, although you’d be forgiven for lacking that information, seeing because it got here simply days after a transcendent World Collection and didn’t even advantage a writeup on this august web site. So allow us to take into account November 16 the official first day of the offseason. On Sunday night, Jeff Passan reported that first baseman Josh Naylor and the Seattle Mariners have been “finalizing” a five-year deal. (On Monday night, Ken Rosenthal reported the phrases: 5 years, $92.5 million.) In estimating Naylor’s contract for our annual Prime 50 Free Agent rating (he checked in at no. 11), Ben Clemens anticipated a four-year, $100 million deal, whereas the median crowdsource projection was 4 years and $80 million.

The primary actual transfer of the offseason, fittingly, is maybe its most predictable. From the day their season ended, the Mariners’ entrance workplace shared its need to carry Naylor again to the Pacific Northwest.

“It was an incredible match and it’s positively a precedence for us this offseason — if not one, I don’t know what else could be, he’s no. 1 proper now,” Mariners normal supervisor Justin Hollander informed MLB Community Radio on the primary day that free brokers have been allowed to signal with different groups. “I don’t actually see a motive, there’s no benefit to hiding the ball, to telling individuals, ‘It was simply high quality.’ It wasn’t simply high quality. It was superior. It was an incredible match for the 2 months, and we’d prefer to make it final so much longer.”

That’s fairly unambiguous, and the clear match for each side, in addition to the mutual good emotions between participant and crew, led most analysts to mission Naylor’s return. Three out of 4 MLB Commerce Rumors writers predicted Naylor would signal with Seattle, whereas Passan picked Naylor because the Mariners’ “good transaction” in his Monday column.

It’s not obscure the crew’s need for a steady answer at first base. Previous to the 2024 and 2025 commerce deadlines, the Mariners’ manufacturing from the place was subpar sufficient to advantage buying a rental to cowl the final two months of the season, with Naylor introduced this yr and Justin Turner the yr earlier than. Certainly, aside from two and half good years from Ty France, Seattle has cycled by man after man at first base for the higher a part of a decade. (Adam Lind! Ryon Healy! Danny Valencia! Donovan Solano! Rowdy Tellez!) And powerful inner options weren’t on provide; the Mariners dealt their finest first base prospect (Tyler Locklear) to the Diamondbacks within the July Eugenio Suárez deal, so in the event that they stayed throughout the group, the crew would’ve been banking on Luke Raley to cowl the majority of plate appearances on the place.

And who higher than Naylor, who put collectively a magical run after arriving in Seattle from Arizona. He put up a 137 wRC+ in his 54 common season video games with the Mariners and supplemented that batting line with one of many wildest baserunning sizzling streaks in current reminiscence, swiping 19 baggage despite his third-percentile dash velocity. He someway leveled up within the playoffs, delivering a .967 OPS and numerous clutch hits when main components of the lineup have been in any other case flailing.

That is FanGraphs, however it should be mentioned that the intangible parts of Naylor’s presence on the membership virtually actually performed a component within the entrance workplace’s enthusiastic need for a reunion. When requested on Saturday who he’d deem MVP of the clubhouse, Cal Raleigh named Naylor. The erstwhile Diamondback performed (and cheered on the crew) with an intense, palpable power, and appeared to kind shut private connections with most of the crew’s core gamers, together with Tucker, the Mariners’ clubhouse canine.

Whereas Naylor’s reference to Tucker is heartwarming, it in all probability wasn’t adequate to advantage a deal that approached 9 figures. Helpfully, the signing additionally manages to make good baseball sense. Between Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, and (till this season) Julio Rodríguez, the offensive core of the membership encompasses a wholesome quantity of swing-and-miss. Naylor’s high-contact method lends stability to a lineup that has suffered by spells of being overly reliant on the lengthy ball. Since he began incomes common taking part in time in 2022, Naylor’s 15.1% strikeout charge ranks among the many stingiest in baseball; his 13.7% Ok charge in 2025 sat within the 91st percentile. And in contrast to most different low strikeout hitters, Naylor can launch a tank each once in a while. Whereas it’s arduous to see him matching his 31-homer peak from 2024, there’s sufficient pop within the bat to spice up his remoted slugging to respectable ranges, rounding out his offensive recreation:

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has, in his now decade-plus tenure on the helm of the franchise, stayed away from profitable offers totally free agent hitters. Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24 million contract was the richest he’d given to a hitter since he landed in Seattle. (That didn’t go so nice.) However one might see why it’s simpler to get behind a five-year deal for a man like Naylor. He received’t flip 29 till subsequent June, that means nearly all of the contract will unfold inside his relative bodily prime. (As current analysis by former FanGraphs contributor Justin Choi reveals, bat velocity tends to start out its sleek decline round a hitter’s age-32 marketing campaign, although extra on that in a minute.)

Whereas Mariners followers, the entrance workplace, and presumably Naylor himself all seem enthusiastic in regards to the reunion, the deal shouldn’t be with out its potential downsides. Typically, gamers receiving five-year offers are nearer to the star finish of the spectrum than Naylor, whose 3.1 WAR final season was a profession excessive. Steamer initiatives him for two.4 WAR in 2026; ZIPS is a little more optimistic, forecasting 3 WAR and a .784 OPS:

One might maybe add {that a} man of Naylor’s physique shouldn’t be essentially the one you’d need to guess on to age essentially the most gracefully, although it does seem he’s slimmed down since his days in Cleveland. And it’s arduous to see a world the place Naylor pops a six-win season; in all chance, he’s fairly effectively locked into the “above-average common” tier of participant with a low chance of garnering MVP votes.

One other potential factor of concern is Naylor’s bat velocity decline. His common swing velocity went from 72.9 mph in 2024 to 70.9 mph in 2025, the most important drop-off of any certified hitter. As Jay Jaffe argued in October, nevertheless, that drop might have been a part of an intentional “energy for contact” tradeoff on Naylor’s half; these slower swings helped him enhance his squared-up charge by almost 4 share factors and his batting common from .243 to .295.

Finally, “above-average common” is what the Mariners are paying and hoping for from this signing. When it comes to star-level hitters, they’re well-covered: Rodríguez and Raleigh are two of one of the best within the sport, and Arozarena — the bizarre form of his manufacturing apart — slots in effectively as a 3rd banana.

With Cole Younger able to assume an everyday huge league position, Colt Emerson ready within the wings, and J.P. Crawford on the ultimate yr of his deal, the Mariners aren’t more likely to signal a center infielder. And with roughly $35 million to spend on free brokers this winter, and the third base job the one clear place nonetheless in want of an improve on the offensive aspect of the ball, the crew was at all times more likely to spend some money for a primary baseman. So long as Naylor can maintain down the chilly nook whereas delivering his yearly 120 wRC+ and appearing like a benevolent maniac for the following three years or so, the Mariners might be glad clients.