For context, Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan has ranked among the many league’s defensive leaders since his debut, whereas Boston Pink Sox outfielder Jarren Duran was price +12 defensive runs in 2024. Each carry game-changing worth within the subject that Soto doesn’t.
Velocity is one other problem. Soto’s below-average dash pace places him in the identical class because the Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton, a slugger whose defensive and base-running struggles have turn out to be obvious liabilities. This issues as a result of Soto’s worth hinges fully on his bat.
As gamers age, energy declines. A Baseball Prospectus examine discovered {that a} hitter’s slugging usually peaks at age 28.6, with total energy barely behind.
With out his energy, Soto tasks as a hitter extra like Duran or Kwan —stable contact hitters however not franchise-defining forces. In the meantime, Kwan and Duran provide extra worth by way of their elite fielding and pace, areas the place Soto lags considerably.
So why the Ohtani-level hype? Soto’s age is a giant issue. He’ll play the 2025 season as a 26-year-old, a rarity for celebrity free brokers.
The final comparable case was Alex Rodriguez, who signed a $252M deal in free company with the Texas Rangers in 2000 at simply 25. However A-Rod was an elite shortstop on the time with a 6.6 profession dWAR and superior base-running capacity. Soto, by comparability, is much much less versatile.
Versatility is the key phrase right here. Baseball is more and more about gamers who can affect the sport in a number of methods, and Soto’s limitations are exhausting to disregard.
His energy and plate self-discipline are phenomenal, however his defensive and base-running shortcomings make him one-dimensional. That’s a stark distinction to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Ohtani, whose unprecedented two-way affect justifies his historic deal.
In the meantime, gamers such because the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts, 32, who excel in a number of sides of the sport, display the worth of adaptability as they age. Soto dangers changing into a legal responsibility earlier than groups would possibly anticipate with out related versatility.
It’s not that Soto isn’t price a giant contract — he’s. However groups contemplating a record-setting deal should weigh the long-term dangers.
Baseball has been burned by huge contracts earlier than. Simply take a look at Miguel Cabrera, a perennial MVP candidate in his prime who turned a monetary anchor with the Detroit Tigers in his later years. It’s a cautionary story for any crew contemplating committing $500M over 10 seasons or extra to a participant whose worth is closely tied to his bat.
In an period that celebrates analytics, it’s stunning how little consideration is being paid to Soto’s defensive and base-running metrics. The numbers are clear: He’s not the versatile celebrity that groups have been paying prime greenback for in recent times.
The subsequent crew to signal Soto is betting massive on 4 years of peak manufacturing. However what occurs after that? Can a franchise afford to disregard what the information is already telling us?
