Since 2021, Ke’Bryan Hayes is the chief in OAA amongst all infielders. As among the finest defenders within the sport, his ground could be very excessive. Even together with his profession 87 wRC+, he has nonetheless been value about 3 WAR per 162 video games. If he may very well be a constantly common offensive participant, he’d be one of the vital worthwhile gamers at his place. It is a story everyone knows. Together with his identify swirling in commerce rumors, you must think about different groups are enthusiastic about the likelihood extra so now than previously. His points stem from his suboptimal swing path, and if he’s traded, that might be what his new hitting coach tries to repair.
Within the final calendar 12 months (459 plate appearances), Hayes has a 60 wRC+. That’s dangerous! However regardless of these struggles, it’s not like he’s fully missing offensive skill. His bat pace is just a little bit under common. His strikeout and whiff charges are higher than league common over the previous three seasons. He hits the ball exhausting as a rule, and he chases at about a mean fee. These are all issues you could possibly work with should you’re making an attempt to fabricate a league common hitter. However should you’re doing all this and your path is never working in an excellent route, you’ll all the time have limitations on what you do if you really make contact.
A number of the key batted ball metrics that summarize Hayes as a hitter are his second-percentile pulled fly ball fee, his Eleventh-percentile groundball fee, and sixth-percentile Candy-Spot%. My preliminary response when taking a look at every of those metrics is that Hayes should be getting handcuffed and making contact method too deep within the zone (or deep relative to his middle of mass). Should you can’t hold the ball off the bottom, this can be a logical estimation. However curiously sufficient, he’s really thirty fourth out of 219 certified hitters this 12 months in relation to level of contact versus middle of mass. Earlier than explaining precisely how that oddity can occur, we’ve to take a look at Baseball Savant’s bat path highlighter. It’s best to know by seeing for your self:
Discover something particular? Take note of the overlay of his bat as soon as the downswing will get going. It takes an extremely very long time for him to get his bat sloping on an upward aircraft that matches the angle of the pitch. Should you’re continuously working by way of a adverse assault angle, then it’s going to take you extra time and house to get to a constructive one. In different phrases, the one perfect contact level he has to get any raise is method out in entrance of the plate. If he had a constructive slope earlier on, he’d have extra room for error. The following clip reveals the identical part as above however with an arrow that guides you thru the method of his assault angle.
Similar factor right here: That arrow is pointing downward for a lot of the swing. The perfect hitters within the league both match the aircraft early (assume a contact hitter with a flatter swing) or work from a constructive angle very early on (assume a man with gentle tower energy). A swing that takes so long as Hayes’ does to match planes goes to generate a ton of groundballs.
OK, now that I’ve framed his swing, I need to present you an analogous hitter with an similar common assault angle (5 levels) on the season whom I feel is an inexpensive comparability to Hayes, albeit with higher efficiency: Alec Bohm. Like Hayes, Bohm’s bat pace is barely under common, and he has the identical assault angle; the distinction is Bohm has managed a 102 wRC+ over the course of his profession. Why is that? Effectively, let’s have a look at the identical part of his swing with the arrow highlighting the development of his assault angle:
He will get to a impartial angle earlier in his swing. Most of that’s associated to how his arms make their entry into the hitting zone. His arms begin behind his middle of mass after which work by way of the aircraft of the ball. Don’t get me incorrect, he doesn’t have the best bat path – that’s precisely why I’m referencing him – however in contrast to Hayes, Bohm doesn’t have a hitch that disrupts the aircraft his arms and barrel are transferring on. I do know it is likely to be a little bit troublesome to see that, so I’ve put two screenshots under of the second the place every participant will get to a zero-degree assault angle:
Bohm
Hayes
The small dots over every joint are extremely useful right here. Bohm is attending to a impartial aircraft nearer to his again hip, whereas Hayes’ bat is totally forward of his middle of mass, which means he will get on aircraft later in his swing. That slim distinction between them is sufficient to give Bohm extra room for error to create launch at totally different depths within the strike zone. And as I mentioned, it’s not like Bohm has among the finest paths within the recreation. He’s a league common hitter with a contact and gap-to-gap profile. If Hayes was to mannequin his perfect recreation, it’d look one thing like Bohm’s.
Now that the analysis is in place, it’s time to determine on the place Hayes ought to goal adjusting inside his swing. Let’s proceed to give attention to Hayes’ first transfer together with his arms:
His knob is on a diagonal line downward for nearly the whole thing of this part of the swing. Usually, when a hitter has their preliminary entry into the slot from the place they need to fireplace, the knob of their barrel both straightens out or begins working upward. Hayes’ works down. That’s what old-school people have all the time known as a pushy swing. His arms are pushing ahead too early relative to when he rotates. It’s very troublesome for him to get his barrel below the ball with any variability.
Adjusting out of this may go in a couple of instructions. One easy choice is to begin together with his arms decrease relative to the place they’re now in order that he can’t push down when he begins swinging. Although if he feels comfy within the greater slot, he may additionally take away the verticality of his barrel throughout his stance and bat comb, as a result of proper now, he isn’t capable of flip the angle of his barrel quick sufficient to get on aircraft in time. Right here’s a fast GIF of him in his setup and row to point out you what I imply:
There’s quite a lot of a motion occurring, and that’s how his barrel will get on aircraft. That is extra of a philosophical idea, however when a hitter has a flatter swing (decrease tilt, decrease assault angle, and many others), I’ve bother understanding why they wouldn’t additionally begin flatter throughout their stance or their row. By beginning vertically and making an attempt to flatten out, you’re throwing your physique’s rotation off the pure path it desires to maneuver on. There’s a cause why not quite a lot of hitters can swing like Ronald Acuña Jr. It’s simply troublesome to repeat. When unsure, you would possibly as nicely simplify issues as a lot as attainable.
If the Pirates determine to commerce Hayes, the workforce that acquires him ought to recommend a minimum of one of many modifications I prescribed above to repair his bat path, and he ought to absolutely embrace it. There’s quite a lot of room for progress right here, he simply must put himself in a greater place for fulfillment.
