This week’s MLBTR Mailbag appears at Ryan Helsley’s worth, potential upgrades for the Giants, some Rangers commerce candidates, the Brewers‘ infield, MacKenzie Gore’s breakout and why he is a tough commerce candidate to check, the Cubs‘ bench, the Padres‘ outfield and extra!
Let’s dive in!
Sam asks…
Given Helsley’s dip in efficiency this 12 months, would the Cardinals get extra future worth/prospects by buying and selling him or providing a QO? This questions assumes that the choice is made solely on boosting the farm system, not with any concerns for this 12 months’s workforce or the ’25 playoffs.
The idea there’s vital, as I am by no means satisfied the Cardinals will commerce Helsley given the way during which they’ve trounced preseason expectations from nearly everybody (myself one thousand p.c included). From a pure have a look at future worth, although, the extra prudent transfer to achieve future worth is to commerce him earlier than July 31. Holding him makes additional assumptions than the one you listed on this query; it assumes that Helsley will keep wholesome and that he’ll pitch nicely sufficient to benefit a qualifying supply at season’s finish. Neither is a given.
Additional, there isn’t any certainty that he’d signal a contract price $50MM or extra even when he rejects a qualifying supply. That is the edge wanted to safe a compensatory decide after the primary spherical of the draft. If Helsley signed for beneath $50MM, that comp decide would come between Aggressive Stability Spherical B and the third spherical, some 40 picks later.
If Helsley is wholesome and pitching nicely, there is a good case for him to land that $50MM+, however we will not assume he will get it. There have been cases up to now of relievers turning down a QO, searching for an enormous payday, and lingering in free company as a result of their preliminary ask was too excessive and since groups had exhausted their offseason budgets by the point that asking value got here down. Cardinals followers ought to be fairly acquainted with this phenomenon; it is how Greg Holland landed in St. Louis again in 2018.
So, there’s a whole lot of presumption simply to get to the purpose the place the Cardinals choose within the No. 31-35 vary with the comp decide for Helsley — after which there’s the matter of really drafting the proper participant there as nicely. There are apparent, bigger-picture advantages to including that decide’s slot worth to the workforce’s 2026 draft finances, however one of the simplest ways to maximise that worth is to land a high-quality prospect there. Let’s run by means of the latest historical past of gamers chosen with QO compensation picks after the primary spherical:
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