M’s, Nats Exchange Harry Ford, Jose Ferrer

On Saturday afternoon, the Mariners traded catching prospect Harry Ford to the Nationals in change for Jose A. Ferrer; the Mariners additionally despatched right-handed pitcher Isaac Lyon, their Tenth-round choose from this 12 months’s draft, to Washington. Robert Murray of FanSided had the information first.

It is a commerce that raises a number of eyebrows. Whereas Ford moved by means of the minor leagues slowly by fashionable requirements, he’s been a consensus High 100 prospect for practically three years now. It’s a bit jarring to see somebody of that caliber dealt for a reliever, significantly one with pedestrian surface-level numbers and good however not sterling peripherals. My preliminary response was that Seattle bought low on Ford, although additional assessment has modified my considering a bit. Let’s dive in.

The Mariners’ aspect of this takes a bit extra nuance to work by means of, so we’ll begin with their scenario. Ford is an effective, if not nice prospect. He’s been on our High 100 listing for a pair seasons now on the energy of a well-rounded sport, ending the 2025 season ranked forty third general as a 50 FV. He can hit a bit bit, there’s common energy that he’s studying to faucet into, and he’s rising right into a dependable, if unspectacular defender behind the plate. There isn’t a lot star potential right here, and I’ll say extra on why that’s in a bit, however he does mission as an everyday.

However Ford was additionally as blocked as any prospect within the minors, caught behind MVP runner up Cal Raleigh. Raleigh is sturdy, wonderful, and totally entrenched after inking a six-year extension this previous March. The Mariners had experimented with Ford within the outfield to see if they might discover one thing else for him to do, because it’s been clear for some time now that his future wouldn’t be behind the plate in Seattle. He’s been an apparent commerce candidate for at the least a 12 months, and the one shock is that it took so lengthy for the M’s to maneuver him. They’ve reportedly been purchasing him for influence relievers elsewhere; frankly, this can be a swap that will have made a ton of sense 4 months in the past, when Ford was simply as blocked and the Mariners may have used extra aid depth in entrance of Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash for his or her playoff push. Oh effectively, not prefer it bit them within the butt throughout October.

So, buying and selling Ford is sensible. However for Ferrer? A man with a 4.36 profession ERA? Don’t they’ve holes across the infield, ones they could must fill by way of commerce because it looks like their low season finances is fairly modest? What provides?

As readers seemingly know, Ferrer’s numbers beneath the hood are significantly better than his ERA. His FIP during the last two years is beneath 3.00, because of tiny stroll and residential run charges. He’s additionally one of many league’s foremost groundball turbines. His groundball fee is simply over 60% for his profession, and of the pitchers who threw at the least 50 innings in 2025, solely José Soriano, Jhoan Duran, and Tim Hill topped Ferrer’s 62.6% mark. As you’d count on, it’s actually exhausting to drive the ball towards him, and he solely allowed 5 lengthy balls in 76.1 innings of labor in 2025. He takes full benefit of his means to dampen harm on contact, pounding the zone to the tune of a 2.21 profession BB/9 fee and an in-zone pitch fee of practically 60% (roughly the ninetieth percentile for the league).

And naturally, the Mariners aren’t simply buying these numbers. They’re buying and selling for the prospect to unlock extra, and you’ll see compelling paths ahead right here.

This season, Ferrer principally simply pounded the zone along with his sinker whereas mixing in a changeup about 20% of the time and a slider a couple of times an outing. His sinker is sort of good, because it sits within the higher 90s, touches 100, and options plus tail. It’s a fast and dependable means for him to generate outs, and you’ll see why he leans on it. However like most pitchers who spam the fastball, there’s an argument for a utilization adjustment right here. The changeup carried out very effectively in 2025, producing huge whiff and chase charges, and hitters didn’t do a lot with it even on contact. He may in all probability stand to make use of it extra.

The true path ahead often is the slider, although. Ferrer’s sits within the low 90s and has tight, two-plane motion, not fairly cutterish however within the neighborhood. His command of it isn’t nice, usually within the dust to the glove aspect, however whether or not it’s as a result of guys don’t count on the Spanish Inquisition or they’re simply not seeing his spin very effectively, opponents did completely nothing with it and whiffed greater than half the occasions they swung. The Mariners have had plenty of success getting fastball-heavy arms to diversify their arsenal — Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are two apparent examples — and it might come as no shock if they’ve Ferrer lean on the bender much more going ahead.

Put all the things collectively, and you’ll think about why Seattle sees Ferrer as an influence reliever, the sort price parting with a high prospect for. Sources from across the sport like Ferrer as an upside play. He throws exhausting, he kilos the zone, he has three pitches that flash plus, and there’s a comparatively easy adjustment that might unlock extra. With 4 years of workforce management left, he’s not even costly. He lengthens the bullpen and offers the Mariners a left-handed weapon of a magnitude they didn’t have final season. There’s at all times threat in buying aid pitching, however this seems like a secure means so as to add 1-1.5 WAR to the bullpen, and along with his abilities, a nutty, sub-2.00 ERA season is just not outdoors the realm of risk.

On Washington’s aspect, this additionally makes loads of sense. Ferrer’s a tricky man to lose, however good relievers are a luxurious on a rebuilding membership and swapping bullpen arms for bats with on a regular basis upside is a sound concept. That’s very true behind the plate. Nationals catchers produced -1.4 WAR in 2025, final within the majors, and had been terrible on each side of the ball. Led principally by Riley Adams and Keibert Ruiz, the membership’s backstops hit .225/.270/.322, good for a 65 wRC+ that was twenty ninth in baseball. Thanks partly to Ruiz’s horrible framing numbers (his mark of -5.3 runs prevented was third from the underside amongst all catchers, in 65 video games no much less), Washington’s catchers had been additionally the league’s worst collective on protection as effectively. Ruiz was as soon as a high prospect, however he’s now 27, has no method, and isn’t precisely an asset defensively. It’s time to maneuver on.

Enter Ford. A primary spherical choose in 2021, Ford progressed slowly and steadily towards the large leagues earlier than making his debut in September. His method has been superior: He has an excellent eye, he acknowledges smooth stuff out of the hand, and whereas he doesn’t swing a ton, he reliably turns it unfastened on pitches he can drive. If you happen to put a ton of inventory in swing choices, that is your man.

Statistically, all is effectively. His manufacturing has been strikingly constant, with Ford notching a wRC+ between 125 and 135 at every full-season stage. He’s additionally posted very small deviations in his stroll, strikeout, and — except for 2024, which he spent in an enormous, homer-suppressing yard — ISO numbers, all of which had been encouraging. If you happen to worth constant minor league manufacturing, that is your man.

Scouts and evaluators are usually not universally bought on Ford’s means to translate that manufacturing to the large leagues, although. His bat pace is common and he’s periodically struggled getting his bat to fastballs up within the zone. In his most up-to-date prospect write-up, Eric coated an adjustment Ford made along with his ft and timing that appears to have helped this season, however clearly the large leagues will present a special stress check. I see a mean bat with an opportunity to develop into common sport energy, however there are scouts who would take the beneath on each.

Ford’s defensive development has mirrored his ascent by means of the minors. His framing has improved however remains to be fringy, and he might profit from an ABS help (although he was really fairly dangerous at difficult pitches this season). He shines extra in spots the place his athleticism takes heart stage. He’s fast on performs the place the ball is tapped out in entrance of the plate, and he’s going to catch his share of baserunners. He has an above-average arm, his throwing accuracy has improved, and he caught practically 25% of would-be-thieves in 2025. Early-career reviews questioned whether or not he had an excessive amount of hassle merely catching the ball, however his passed-ball figures have plummeted since 2023. I’m projecting a mean defender, although once more, there are evaluators who will take the beneath.

All of it provides as much as a 50 FV report, albeit one the place there isn’t plenty of wiggle room if one of many instruments doesn’t attain its projection or Ford’s method buckles towards higher stuff. In fact, a part of that projection is a mirrored image of the state of catching all through the league; the bar for being a mean common isn’t very excessive proper now. Nonetheless, if he’s common on each side of the ball, that’s a very good participant, and he’s the form of threat Washington must be taking at this stage. Ford could possibly be a part of the following good Nationals workforce, and even when he falls a bit in need of the place we’ve him right here, he’s seemingly regular sufficient to be an actual improve over what they’ve trotted out in current seasons.

Let’s shortly contact on the opposite participant within the deal. Lyon, the son of former huge leaguer Brandon Lyon, signed for practically $200,000 this summer time. He’s a very good strike thrower with a nasty fastball, a slider and alter that flash common, and a supply with some deception in it. He sat within the low 90s in brief begins with Low-A Modesto, and will have one other gear as he fills out. He initiatives as an up-down kind and has a low-leverage aid ceiling if he can discover a method to throw more durable in shorter stints.

One different factor to notice: With Ford now in Washington, Seattle might be out there for a backup catcher. The membership is reportedly open to a reunion with Mitch Garver, who hit 24 homers amidst in any other case disappointing manufacturing over the previous two years because the membership’s main backup catcher; he additionally began at DH 22 occasions this season. Whereas Raleigh performs practically day by day, he does DH pretty typically, so whoever Seattle indicators will in all probability begin about 25% of the time behind the plate.

In the end, the deal helps each events, and one exec I spoke with known as it a “win win” transfer. The extra I take a look at Ferrer, the extra he looks like a reliever with one other gear, a man with nearer stuff who’s a loads good match for Seattle’s bullpen as is. Nonetheless, I believe Washington did effectively right here, getting a high-floor place participant at an space of determined want. The Paul Toboni period is right here now, and Nationals followers must be enthused about his first huge commerce as president of baseball operations with the membership.