OOPSY 2026 Top 100 Prospects

This text unveils OOPSY’s first WAR-based Prime 100 prospects listing.

Broadly put, OOPSY mirrors the opposite projections techniques at FanGraphs, but it surely makes use of its personal substances, together with its personal growing older curves, regression quantities, recency weights, main league equivalencies, and park components. By way of accuracy, it has held its personal with the opposite projection techniques, together with when projecting rookies.

Since 2024, I’ve printed OOPSY’s prime prospect lists over at RotoGraphs with extra of a fantasy focus, rating pitchers by peak ERA and hitters by peak wRC+. In 2025, I started incorporating common fastball velocity into my prospect pitching projections, utilizing information from The Board, in addition to Stuff+, supplied by Eno Sarris, the place potential. Halfway by 2025, I began accounting for EV90 in my prospect hitting projections, utilizing information from Prospect Savant; I additionally embody bat velocity the place information permits. And now that OOPSY accounts for protection in addition to baserunning, I can rank prospects by projected WAR, to theoretically align extra intently with the valuations utilized by main league organizations.

Earlier than entering into the rankings, I need to focus on my method to projecting protection. Beforehand, OOPSY borrowed its defensive projections from Steamer; now I mission it myself. For main league gamers, the defensive runs above common projections are primarily based on a participant’s fielding run worth from Statcast, aligning with how FanGraphs’ WAR accounts for protection; OOPSY additionally makes use of a positional adjustment, in line with FanGraphs’ method.

The absence of publicly accessible Statcast fielding information for minor leaguers necessitates a distinct method with regards to prospects. I take advantage of a scouting-based method, leveraging the listed place and Fielding grades from our prospect group’s important work on The Board. Utilizing scouting grades to assist formulate rookie projections is an previous concept within the sabermetrics neighborhood. For gamers not listed on The Board, I’ve assigned a main place primarily based on the place they performed essentially the most in 2025, utilizing information supplied to me by Thomas Nestico, and formulated a naïve projection that assumes the participant shall be barely beneath common at their main place on the main league stage. For gamers included on The Board, listed place and Fielding grades work effectively to formulate a easy defensive projection for rookies, with a 10-point enhance in Fielding grade related to a five-run enhance in fielding run worth above common per 4,000 outs (i.e., per full season):

For gamers included on The Board, I take advantage of information from the 2026 Report the place accessible, or else the 2025 Up to date Report as a backup. For gamers with each minor league and main league information, I take advantage of Fielding grade within the projections till a participant has eclipsed 250 massive league innings. After that, I swap to the Statcast-based main league method. This results in a reasonably sharp cutoff on the 250-inning mark, which isn’t supreme, but it surely affords the benefit of comfort.

A number of extra issues are price highlighting earlier than attending to the listing. First, solely home minor league (so no DSL) and main league efficiency is captured. This makes the projections notably unstable (and thus much less helpful) for minor leaguers who have been drafted in 2025. Due to that, anybody with fewer than 50 profession skilled plate appearances or whole batters confronted was excluded from the listing. It’s best to try the ZiPS Prime 100 for a system that captures gamers’ school efficiency.

Second, these projections usually are not an alternative to scouting. They can’t account for the variety of data {that a} scout can convey to bear when assessing a participant. Somewhat, a projections-based method can function a helpful complement by providing a scientific solution to incorporate quite a lot of completely different numerical indicators on the similar time: completely different measures of efficiency from completely different leagues, at completely different ages, in numerous seasons. With out the assistance of projections, it’s troublesome to summarize all of this data in a constant, wise means — or a minimum of it’s for me.

Third, prospects are ranked by projected peak single-season WAR, with a participant’s peak assumed to happen round age 28, with a lot of the development coming earlier than age 25. This differs from the prospect group’s method, which assigns a Future Worth grade meant to approximate a participant’s common annual WAR over their first six massive league seasons. Naturally, a peak WAR method leads to larger WAR forecasts than the six-year common WAR method. Peak WAR projections additionally assume a full season of enjoying time, which is one thing to remember for gamers who could also be susceptible to harm. All projections assume a impartial park within the 2025 main league run setting.

Listed here are OOPSY’s Prime 100 prospects heading into 2026, ranked by peak WAR:

Konnor Griffin, Samuel Basallo, and Kevin McGonigle comprise three of the highest 4, whereas 19 of the highest 20 prospects additionally made the FanGraphs Prime 100, a very good supply of triangulation for OOPSY’s method. Total, about 60% of my Prime 100 ranked on the FanGraphs Prime 100, matching the share of settlement between the ZiPS Prime 100 and the FanGraphs Prime 100. Unsurprisingly, the three lists have larger settlement on the names close to the highest: Twenty-three of my prime 25 made the FanGraphs listing, and 37 of my prime 50, however solely 26 of my backside 59 made it. Equally, 24 of my prime 25 made the ZiPS listing, and 38 of my prime 50, however solely 15 of my backside 59.

A number of different names within the OOPSY prime 30 obtained a 45-FV grade from our prospect group this listing cycle, together with Cooper Pratt and Nelson Rada. Alejandro Rosario was a forty five+-FV prospect final yr, whereas Emmanuel Rodriguez fell out of this yr’s Prime 100, principally attributable to contact-related considerations. We’ll see the place they rank this yr when the Nationals and Twins lists come out. The 2 most notable prospects who did not make OOPSY’s listing are Bryce Eldridge and Ryan Sloan. Eldridge initiatives effectively offensively, with a 115 peak wRC+, however his first base defensive residence limits his WAR forecast. In the meantime, the bar for A-ball efficiency is sort of excessive given it’s penalized harshly by my main league equivalencies, bumping Sloan exterior the Prime 100; he might rise rapidly if he continues to dominate at extra superior ranges this yr.

There are a number of gamers who narrowly graduated from prospect eligibility final yr who would have executed fairly effectively on these rankings had they nonetheless been eligible. Chase Burns would have edged out Griffin for the highest spot on this listing. Stuff+ darling Grant Taylor would have been the fourth-best prospect arm, slotting in simply behind Max Clark, with OOPSY anticipating an eventual profitable transition to beginning full-time; his goal for 2026 is roughly 100 innings, however he might enter the rotation in 2027. Marcelo Mayer would have slotted in subsequent to Bubba Chandler on the Prime 100, with OOPSY viewing him as an above-average infielder at peak. Lastly, Jordan Lawlar would have ranked simply forward of Caleb Bonemer. At peak, OOPSY views him as a below-average, however nonetheless satisfactory, shortstop, with a barely above-average wRC+ and plenty of stolen bases. He ought to get an opportunity to play everywhere in the diamond for the Diamondbacks this yr.

The incorporation of protection led to quite a lot of motion among the many prospect hitters in comparison with OOPSY’s September 2025 fantasy-focused prospect rating, bringing this listing nearer to scouting knowledge:

Lazaro Montes and Ryan Clifford proceed to mission effectively offensively, however weak protection projections knock them out of the highest 25 right here. Luke Adams’ 40-grade projected defensive potential at first base drops him off the listing completely, although he nonetheless charges effectively offensively, with a 123 peak wRC+ projection. On the flip aspect, Jesús Made slots in as Twelfth-best hitter now, whereas he did not crack the highest 30 within the September replace. As a forecaster, that is the kind of change I wish to see, bringing OOPSY extra consistent with trade knowledge. Starlyn Caba and Tre’ Morgan additionally be a part of the listing after receiving 80 FV Fielding grades at shortstop and first base, respectively, final listing cycle. Druw Jones is the one different prospect on The Board with an 80 FV Fielding grade, however his offensive projection (80 peak wRC+) is weak sufficient to maintain him off the listing. He seems like a surefire main leaguer, nevertheless.

The most important surprises among the many hitting prospects are Aron Estrada and Wilder Dalis, two gamers who didn’t make the 2025 in-season replace of The Board. Our lead prospect analyst, Eric Longenhagen, lined Estrada final April, highlighting his defensive points, whereas anticipating {that a} projections-based method would in all probability like him, saying, “This can be a prospect the place my visible eval is an efficient bit decrease than no matter a mannequin would doubtless spit out given Estrada’s TrackMan information.” Dalis is a teenage Rockies prospect who has carried out effectively in a restricted pattern. Eric mentioned him in January 2025, citing his sturdy hard-hit information. I sit up for seeing how each of these guys stack up on their respective lists later this cycle.

On the pitching aspect, there aren’t any main surprises within the prime 10, with OOPSY endorsing prospect arms additionally beloved by scouts, though a number of have vital well being considerations, together with Rosario, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure, and Jarlin Susana, who’s recovering from surgical procedure on his proper lat. Our prospect group believed sufficient within the stuff to rank Susana twenty ninth on Monday’s Prime 100, accidents be damned. Right here is how the pitchers shake out:

There are a number of surprises exterior the highest 10, specifically Ben Hess, Ty Johnson, Yordanny Monegro, and Coleman Crow. Our prospect group views Monegro as having aid danger, an final result that turned extra doubtless after he underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final June. Per The Board, Johnson touches 97 mph, however a weak changeup as his third pitch provides him heightened aid danger if he’s unable to enhance it. Hess possesses a four-pitch combine and might get the fastball as much as 98. Per this yr’s Brewers listing, Crow’s prolonged harm historical past and corresponding lack of innings level to a bullpen future, although our prospect group notes that he has an opportunity to be an excellent reliever if his velo ticks up.

Yow will discover peak projections for all main league and minor league gamers right here, in addition to each day updates to the projections in-season. We’re additionally engaged on displaying preseason peak WAR forecasts for all gamers for FanGraphs Members within the coming weeks, an OOPSY counterpart to the ZiPS three-year forecasts.