Liverpool are being backed to win in opposition to Newcastle United on Saturday evening, and Opta’s numbers clarify why regardless of our stuttering Premier League run.
It’s a giant one at Anfield, with Arne Slot’s aspect sitting sixth on 36 factors and Eddie Howe’s Newcastle ninth on 33, so the end result issues for the European locations.
The fast temper swing is clear too, as a result of we thrashed Qarabag 6-0 within the Champions League in midweek, even when the league kind has been far much less convincing for the reason that flip of the 12 months.
That contradiction sits proper in the midst of Opta’s preview, which describes us as “in determined want of a win” after Bournemouth, whereas declaring that we’re “winless in [our] final 5 league video games”.
Opta’s win likelihood exhibits why Liverpool are sturdy favourites
The headline motive Liverpool are rated such sturdy favourites is straightforward: Opta’s mannequin nonetheless offers us the very best likelihood of successful the match.
Opta say Liverpool have a 52.4% likelihood of victory, in comparison with 23.3% for Newcastle, with a draw positioned at 24.3%.
These chances matter as a result of they replicate greater than latest kind, bearing in mind underlying staff energy, venue, and historic efficiency patterns.
Opta additionally notice Newcastle have “failed to attain of their earlier two Premier League outings”, which nudges the forecast in direction of a Liverpool win even when our personal league output has been inconsistent.
Chris Sutton landed in an identical place from a extra conventional pundit angle, backing a decent house victory.
The BBC Sport pundit stated: “Even when [Bruno Guimaraes] is [fit], I nonetheless fancy Liverpool right here.”
Liverpool’s Newcastle file at Anfield is a significant factor
The second motive we’re favourites is the size of the historic development on this fixture, particularly at Anfield.
Opta level out Liverpool are unbeaten within the final 18 top-flight conferences with Newcastle (W13 D5), which is a run that persistently stretches throughout managers and squads.
There’s additionally the Anfield-specific hoodoo, with Opta including that Newcastle have didn’t win any of their final 29 away league video games in opposition to Liverpool (D5 L24), calling it certainly one of their joint-longest winless away runs in opposition to any opponent.
That’s why, even with our league wobble, fashions nonetheless lean in direction of a house win when this specific opponent turns up on Merseyside.
And we’ve got already discovered a solution to beat Newcastle as soon as this season, successful 3-2 at St James’ Park again in August, so a win would full a Premier League double.
Latest head-to-head outcomes vs Newcastle
Date
Outcome
Venue
Competitors
25 Aug 2025
3-2
St James’ Park
Premier League
16 Mar 2025
1-2
Wembley
League Cup closing
26 Feb 2025
2-0
Anfield
Premier League
04 Dec 2024
3-3
St James’ Park
Premier League
01 Jan 2024
4-2
Anfield
Premier League
The latest collection exhibits why confidence stays within the knowledge, as a result of even the “messy” video games in opposition to Newcastle are inclined to go well with us, with targets, territory, and possibilities normally arriving ultimately.
There’s nonetheless a warning in all of this, as a result of Sutton additionally highlighted our behavior of following a giant European evening with a flatter league show.
The BBC man stated: “Liverpool walloped Qarabag in midweek, however certainly one of their points this season has been following up good wins like that in Europe with an identical end result within the league the next weekend.”
That’s the stress going into Saturday.
Opta again us to win, historical past screams Anfield benefit, however we nonetheless should show we will make Europe-level sharpness present up when the Premier League stress returns.
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