Phenomenal Cosmic Power, Itty Bitty Contact Rate: White Sox Sign Murakami

A brand new day dawned in Main League Baseball on Sunday, as the highest worldwide participant on this free agent class has signed with — that’s proper — somebody apart from the Dodgers!

The White Sox, sure, imagine it or not, the White Sox, have landed Munetaka Murakami. Per Jeff Passan, the 25-year-old nook infielder, late of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows of NPB, will make $34 million over the following two seasons. We had him ranked twelfth on our Prime 50 Free Brokers record, with an estimated contract AAV of $22 million. Ben Clemens predicted he’d get seven years, our readers six.

It’s one of many largest discrepancies you’re more likely to see, and for good purpose. Murakami is, in my view, the no. 1 most fascinating participant on this class, and whereas I’m shocked his contract dropped this far under expectations, I’m by no means stunned by the extent to which he’s divided standard opinion.

Murakami is, undeniably, an thrilling participant. In 2022, as a 22-year-old, he hit .318/.458/.710 with 56 residence runs in 141 video games. I feel it’s applicable to sit down for a second and reckon with a .700 slugging proportion. We see guys slug .500 on a regular basis, and .600 isn’t that a lot greater than .500, and by extension, .700 isn’t that a lot greater than .600, so is it actually that huge a deal?

Sure, it’s a giant deal. Our NPB leaderboards solely return to 2019, however Murakami in 2022 was the one hitter to slug .700 in Japan’s prime league in that point. There have solely been 10 cases of a hitter slugging .700 in MLB in a 162-game season: Barry Bonds 4 occasions, Mark McGwire twice, Larry Walker twice, and Sammy Sosa and Aaron Decide as soon as every.

All of these required extenuating circumstances. Walker had pre-humidor Coors Discipline; Decide is the largest, strongest place participant in baseball historical past; the opposite three made Marco Pantani’s pharmaceutical weight loss plan appear to be a backyard salad and faucet water.

Murakami hasn’t been fairly pretty much as good since, however the truth that he slugged .700 even as soon as, within the second-best league on the planet, is a giant deal. In 2025, Murakami was restricted to 56 video games by a litany of accidents and nonetheless managed to go yard 22 occasions and slug .663.

Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan’s October roundup of free brokers from Asia put a 70 or 80 on Murakami’s energy grade. That doesn’t come alongside within the free agent market fairly often, below any circumstances. And Murakami is actually the youngest participant on this free agent class; he’s greater than 5 years youthful than Pete Alonso, as an illustration. And whereas the White Sox are reportedly penciling Murakami in at first base, he’s no less than theoretically able to taking part in third.

If you need an instance of a participant Murakami’s age, along with his energy and the power to offer even minimal defensive worth, on the free agent market prior to now decade… I’m developing empty after Bryce Harper. And whereas I don’t suppose this issues in any respect to entrance workplaces — or no less than, it shouldn’t — bringing in a star of Murakami’s stature from NPB is on many ranges extra enjoyable than signing an equal participant who was already within the American main leagues. Murakami shall be completely new to most White Sox followers, which suggests it’s simpler for followers to let their imaginations run wild than it could be with, say, Ryan O’Hearn. Which may not be the healthiest mindset in the long run, nevertheless it’s December; there’s no hurt in just a little optimism.

Insofar as followers are already conscious of Murakami’s oeuvre, they’ll in all probability have come away with overwhelmingly constructive impressions. I’ll cop to not being an NPB skilled right here; I solely have vivid reminiscences of watching one Murakami at-bat stay. Right here’s how that at-bat ended:

Murakami hit the two-run walk-off double that ended Japan’s thrilling semifinal victory over Mexico at the latest World Baseball Basic. And it wasn’t some blooper off a man who bought known as up from beer league as a result of he had a British grandfather, both. Murakami tagged Giovanny Gallegos — a great high-leverage reliever on the time — for a 111-mph missile that hit the wall on the fly.

You enthusiastic about this man, but? Good. Now get a towel, as a result of I’m about to pour a complete bucket of chilly water on that pleasure.

No one price listening to thinks Murakami goes to indicate up in Chicago in March and hit 50 homers or slug .700 instantly. The standard of play in Japan is just a bit under what it’s right here, so that you’d anticipate Murakami to take a while to regulate. ZiPS has him pegged to hit .237/.363/.454, with 26 residence runs in 515 plate appearances. In fancy math, that involves a 126 wRC+ and three.4 WAR.

That appears like an inexpensive low cost on Murakami’s headline stats from Japan. It will even be a steal at $22 million a yr, not to mention $17 million.

I’m taking the below on these numbers. Slamming the below. If I had been a betting man, I’d be texting Emmanuel Clase’s buddies till my cellphone melted.

The Western Hemisphere is a web exporter of slugging nook guys. For each Murakami who comes this fashion, we ship half a dozen Quadruple A primary basemen to NPB. Meaning there’s a prepared provide of gamers whom followers bear in mind fairly properly, to supply a comparability to Murakami:

Within the U.S., these guys largely topped out at entertainingly common. The 2 hitters on this record who had the most effective MLB careers had been Voit and Reyes. They’ve mixed for extra 30-homer seasons (two) and residential run titles (one) than 2-plus WAR seasons (zero). Voit struck out 31.5% of the time in his final full season within the majors; Reyes struck out 33.2% of the time in his.

Each of them have fared higher in NPB, however the swing-and-miss remains to be there; Reyes had the bottom in-zone contact price of any certified hitter within the league in 2025.

When it comes to price stats and manufacturing, Murakami makes these guys appear to be scrubs. He has the very best stroll price, the very best OPS+, and the most effective slugging proportion by greater than 100 factors. However he additionally had an in-zone contact price of simply 73.4%.

In-zone contact price isn’t the be-all and end-all of a participant’s hit device, nevertheless it’s a helpful metric for figuring out how typically a batter can put the bat on his pitch. It takes strike zone judgment out of the equation; getting fooled and chasing an 0-2 slider within the grime doesn’t matter right here. Once you see the pitch you’re in search of, are you able to hit it?

Lots of the most effective hitters in baseball swing and miss at their pitch fairly a bit. The scary zone for Z-Contact% begins round 80%. Right here’s a partial record of hitters who failed to satisfy that mark in 2025: Decide, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuña Jr., Kyle Stowers, Randy Arozarena, Nick Kurtz, Giancarlo Stanton, and Rafael Devers.

You possibly can stay within the higher 70s and hit 40 residence runs a yr and signal nine-figure contracts. Loads of guys do. The fellows I simply listed, typically, take a ton of walks and now have bonkers uncooked energy. For those who miss the middle-middle fastball one out of 5 occasions however hit it 115 mph the opposite 4, issues are inclined to even out in the long term.

And Murakami has that form of plate self-discipline and uncooked energy. The distinction is there’s an enormous distinction between a high-70s Z-Contact% and a low-70s Z-Contact%. Someplace in there’s a cliff, under which it’s simply not potential to be a productive main league hitter over the long term.

Probably the greatest faculty pitchers of the previous 20 years was a man named Preston Morrison. Over 4 years at TCU, he posted a 1.85 ERA as a high-workload starter. He had terrific command, modified speeds properly, had good deception, pitched properly in huge video games — he went to the School World Sequence twice — and made no less than one All-American group in every of his 4 years on campus. In virtually 500 collegiate innings, he allowed solely 11 residence runs and 73 walks.

Morrison lasted till the eighth spherical of the 2015 draft, and signed for simply $30,000. Guys he’d run rings round in faculty had been getting 100 occasions as a lot cash. Appropriately so, it turned out. He carved up Class A ball in his first season and alter within the execs, and bought his first style of Double-A in 2017, the place he went 1-10 with a 5.51 ERA. He was out of the game completely inside 18 months of his Double-A debut.

Morrison’s fastball topped out at round 85 mph. Velocity isn’t all the pieces, and even a very powerful factor, for a pitcher. It’s not sufficient to have velo, and Morrison was among the many greatest in his class at all the pieces besides throwing arduous.

However there’s a naked minimal requirement for velocity. You possibly can succeed for those who throw 90, if all the pieces else is ideal. However you may’t throw 85 — no less than not overhand, or with no knuckleball — and get main league hitters out.

In-zone contact price is to hitters what velocity is to pitchers. And Murakami’s contact charges are the equal of an 85-mph fastball. Neglect Voit and Franmil; bear in mind Domingo Santana? He was a scorching prospect for some time as a result of he may play middle subject and hit for giant energy; certain, he’d strike out loads, however so what?

Nicely, Santana bought to the majors, and it was extra nook outfield than middle subject, and hanging out loads become extra of a “can’t hit the broad aspect of a barn” state of affairs. He had one 30-homer season in Milwaukee, and American organizations bored with letting him strike out a 3rd of the time. Even this man, whose energy stroke has apparently disappeared for the reason that final time he performed within the U.S., made extra contact than Murakami did.

Up to now 5 years, there have been simply 10 seasons wherein a hitter has posted a Z-Contact% of 75% or much less and a wRC+ of 115 or extra in the identical season of no less than 250 plate appearances. (I determine 115 is about the usual of competence for a $17 million-a-year first baseman.) This involves about 0.6% of complete particular person hitter seasons.

What does this appear to be, in apply? Ideally, Devers in 2025. Extra seemingly, a great Joey Gallo or Mike Zunino season. And that’s assuming Murakami’s Z-Contact% stays fixed, which is a giant assumption.

Right here’s Eric on Murakami, from his Prime 50 Free Brokers blurb: “[T]listed below are scary underlying indicators surrounding Murakami’s contact potential which are one thing of a crimson flag when projecting his MLB future. His contact price tanks towards fastballs 93 mph and above (simply 63% since 2022) and, extra not too long ago, Murakami’s contact charges versus secondary pitches have additionally plummeted to close 50%.”

If Murakami struggles with excessive velocity and secondary pitches to that extent, I don’t really feel assured about his potential to keep up, a lot much less enhance, his already-unsurvivable contact numbers. At this level, we’re shifting out of the Good Joey Gallo Season Zone and into Unhealthy Christopher Morel Season Territory.

As a lot as I discover it extremely seemingly that Murakami will flop, nothing is definite. A hitter with this stage of expertise is rarely multiple swing change away from placing all of it collectively, and it bears repeating that Murakami was damage for a lot of final season. If he eats his Wheaties and the White Sox have the precise concepts for the place to place his arms, Murakami may develop into a monster.

I’m rooting for this to occur. Having a brand new 40-homer slugger on any group, below virtually any circumstances, can be cool. And these are compelling circumstances: A giant-market group that’s been a punchline for the previous a number of years has opened up the checkbook and signed a significant free agent. It’d be extraordinarily cool if the White Sox had been in a position to get one over on the league with Murakami.

However the truth that Murakami is signing with a 100-loss group, for a few quarter of what he was alleged to get, tells me the league isn’t holding its collective breath both.

Take into consideration what number of groups would kill to throw $20 million a yr at even a 50% probability of Murakami translating his abilities to the U.S. The Phillies and Orioles simply spent far more on Schwarber and Alonso, respectively. The Phillies may nonetheless use an improve at third base, and are determined to indicate Japanese free brokers that Philadelphia is an effective place to play. The Mets all of a sudden have a large void of their lineup after letting Alonso stroll and buying and selling Brandon Nimmo.

The Pirates and Reds had been in on Schwarber; certainly there’d be involved in a hitter from the following shelf down. The stereotype of each Japanese participant going to the Dodgers comes from someplace. What in regards to the Diamondbacks and Giants, two groups in critical want of extra energy of their pursuit to interrupt via as a real risk to the Dodgers? The Mariners simply spent far more cash on Josh Naylor, slightly than get into the Murakami enterprise.

I may go on. None of these groups had been keen to shell out $80 million over 4 years, even? The market was actually so comfortable that the White Sox had been in a position to get Murakami for, like, Rhys Hoskins cash?

Look, 29 groups have whiffed on a man on the identical time earlier than. And I’m not going to make enjoyable of the White Sox for signing a giant free agent after they’ve had three straight 100-loss seasons and are coming off an $85 million payroll. Greater than that, whereas I wouldn’t contact Murakami at what Ben and our readers thought he’d get, $34 million over two years isn’t going to place any franchise out of enterprise — even the White Sox — if it goes dangerous.

Keep in mind when the Sox provided Manny Machado $175 million over seven years in 2019, and seemed foolish when he finally signed for $300 million? It’s just like the market on Murakami really slid right down to the purpose the place a lowball supply was ok. (OK, I’m going to make enjoyable of the White Sox just a little.)

However, Murakami is a massively, massively dangerous participant. The crimson flags on a hitter’s most necessary talent aren’t even crimson flags; they’re like atomic priesthood markings. (No extremely esteemed contact price is commemorated right here.) A group in Chicago’s place can afford to take huge swings, however Murakami is a strolling metaphor for what occurs while you miss.