Rays’ Parade of Trades Now Includes Isaac Paredes

At greatest, the Rays (54-52) and Cubs (51-56) are on the outskirts of their leagues’ respective Wild Card races, and whereas each have been busy forward of the July 30 commerce deadline, they’re geared in direction of bettering for down the street somewhat than this season. On Sunday, the 2 groups got here collectively for a swap of club-controlled third basemen, with Isaac Paredes heading to Chicago and Christopher Morel to Tampa Bay together with a pair of pitching prospects, righties Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson.

The 25-year-old Paredes is not any stranger to the Cubs, as they signed him out of Mexico for an $800,000 bonus in July 2015, then traded him to Tigers on July 31, 2017 — when he was nonetheless in A-ball — alongside Jeimer Candelario in alternate for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson. Since being dealt to the Rays in April 2022, he’s developed into an efficient middle-of-the-lineup hitter. After receiving down-ballot MVP assist for his 31-homer, .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) efficiency final yr, he made his first All-Star crew this yr, and is presently hitting .245/.357/.435 (130 wRC+) with 16 homers.

Regardless of that output, Paredes doesn’t hit the ball very laborious. His 85-mph common exit velocity ranks in simply the fourth percentile, whereas his 26.1% hard-hit charge is within the fifth percentile; his 5.4% barrel charge is within the twenty sixth percentile. However Paredes excels at pulling fly balls, and notably at depositing them into the left discipline nook, which at Tropicana Discipline is nearer to residence plate (315 toes) than any present ballpark, since balls hit to Fenway Park’s Inexperienced Monster (310 toes away however with a 37-foot excessive wall) and Minute Maid’s Crawford Containers (315 toes away with a 21-foot excessive wall) each require larger elevation to get out. Getting into Sunday, Paredes’ 46 pulled fly balls tied him with Anthony Santander for the key league lead, with all 16 of his homers coming by way of that route.

Right here’s a have a look at his spray charts for the previous two seasons:

Because the begin of 2022, Paredes has the best charge of pulled flies within the majors, however observe that he’s not precisely scorching them:

Santander’s 67 homers leads the majors in that span, although his charge is simply 41.1%.

“Isaac Paredes Retains getting Away With It,” wrote Ben Clemens final month whereas exploring his excessive batted ball tendencies. The catch now could be that Wrigley Discipline is 355 toes down the left discipline line, so one has to surprise how nicely Paredes’ manufacturing will translate to the Windy Metropolis. By way of Statcast, 25 of final yr’s 31 homers and 11 of this yr’s 16 would have been out at Wrigley, but when the remainder of these are routine fly balls, his numbers will take a success.

Defensively, Paredes is kind of common at third base, and has some expertise at second and first; he’s even performed shortstop in a pinch. He’s making $3.4 million this yr as a Tremendous Two, and so he has three extra years of management remaining.

With 2.9 WAR this yr and 4.3 WAR final yr, Paredes actually eyeballs as an improve on Morel, who’s additionally 25 however who has struggled mightily this yr to the purpose that he made my Substitute Degree Killers checklist. He’s 0.1 wins beneath alternative degree after netting simply 1.5 WAR final yr.

Increasing upon what I wrote for the Killers checklist lower than two weeks in the past, Morel’s 18 residence runs put him on tempo to surpass final yr’s complete of 26, however nearly all the things else about his sport has gone backward. He’s hitting simply .199/.302/.373 for a 92 wRC+, down 27 factors from final yr. Whereas he’s reduce his strikeout charge from 31.0% to 24.5%, he’s additionally shed 2.3 mph in common exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.8). His .242 xBA and .451 xSLG are fairly much like final yr’s numbers, and his .346 xwOBA is a six-point enchancment, however the place his wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by seven factors in 2023, his precise manufacturing is 47 factors shy of his anticipated mark this season.

Perhaps it’s simply unhealthy luck, however Morel’s excessive pull charge (48.5%) could possibly be an element, notably provided that he pulls so many balls on the bottom. Righties throughout the majors are collectively hitting .219 and slugging .262 on pulled grounders, however Morel is at .151 AVG/.164 SLG. Defensively, he ranks final on the place in FRV (-9), is tied for third-worst in DRS (-5), and is seventh-worst in UZR (-2.4).

That’s not tremendously promising, however maybe the Rays can get Morel to raise the ball with larger consistency and dunk it into the left discipline nook à la Paredes. He’s cheap, making simply $767,000 this yr, and has yet one more yr earlier than he’s eligible for arbitration. However he could not even get to play commonly at third base for lengthy, as 21-year-old Junior Caminero, the Rays’ high prospect (and no. 3 total), may get referred to as up quickly. Morel does have versatility to name upon, as he has current expertise in any respect three outfield spots, second base, and even a little bit of shortstop.

The Rays additionally obtained two pitching prospects in alternate for Paredes. Of the pair, the 26-year-old Bigge is the one with main league expertise, albeit simply 4 appearances totaling 3.1 innings earlier this month. A Twelfth-round pick of Harvard in 2019, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound righty has battled accidents throughout his skilled profession, together with a torn labrum in his hip in 2021 and an indirect pressure earlier this yr. Due to a velocity achieve this yr, he’s been dominant when obtainable; in 13.1 innings at Triple-A Iowa, he’s struck out 20 (41.7%) whereas permitting simply three hits and 6 walks. He’s on The Board as a 40 FV prospect. Right here’s what Eric Longenhagen needed to say after I requested him about Bigge at the moment:

Bigge was sitting 88-92 at Harvard… however had a spike into the 92-96 mph vary within the bullpen after he was drafted. For the previous couple of seasons, Bigge’s stuff has ridden a little bit of a curler coaster; there have been occasions when he’s sitting 92-94 and others (like extra lately) when he’s sitting 97-99. He’s additionally handled accidents and wildness at occasions, however in 2024 Bigge modified his placement on the rubber and he appears to be like extra comfy from this start line. After beginning the yr on the IL, he has thrown actually laborious and saved his walks at an inexpensive degree. If the modifications to Bigge’s operation have resulted in precise strike-throwing development, then he’s going to be a superb large league reliever. His upper-80s cutter and mid-80s sweeper give him two different above-average pitches (the cutter is healthier). If the strikes are a small pattern blip, then he’ll be restricted to extra low-leverage spots throughout his Rays tenure.

The 22-year-old Johnson is the larger prospect, each actually (he lists at 6-foot-6, 205 kilos) and figuratively (he’s obtained a 40+ FV grade). A Fifteenth-round 2023 pick of Ball State, he’s cut up his first skilled season between the Cubs’ A-level Myrtle Seaside and Excessive-A South Bend associates, posting a 3.54 ERA and a couple of.73 FIP with a 32.5% strikeout charge in 61 innings, typically going three or 4 at a time in a beginning or tandem function. Right here’s what Eric needed to say about Johnson:

Johnson’s velocity has taken a leap and he appears to be like far more bodily now than he did a yr in the past at Ball State. In actual fact, Johnson has been throwing more durable and more durable inside the 2024 season. His fastball averaged about 92 in a begin a few month earlier than the 2024 commerce deadline, and in his closing outing, he was as much as 97 early and averaged 94-95. He’s at all times had an excellent quick arm motion, however now Johnson appears to have extra constant really feel for launch and he’s throwing loads of strikes with this funky tailing fastball. His breaking ball is comfortably plus, with tight, late two-plane motion. If Johnson can enhance his presently below-average changeup, then he’ll have a starter’s coffer of pitches. His arm circle is so comically quick and tight that it might not be within the playing cards for him to do this, and as an alternative maybe the Rays will assist him develop a second distinct breaking ball. Johnson has a center aid flooring with the fastball/breaking ball combo he’s presently wielding, and in addition has some late-bloomer traits (his measurement and small college background) that point out he would possibly be capable of preserve bettering.

All informed, it’s an fascinating haul for the Rays, who’ve now traded two lineup regulars (Randy Arozarena is the opposite), two starters (Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin), and two relievers (Jason Adam and Phil Maton), shaving roughly $12 million off this yr’s payroll alone whereas including 14 prospects to their system. As for the Cubs, they’ve most likely improved their main league roster, however the excessive form of Paredes’ manufacturing does create some added threat. Even when he’s an improve, he’s not going to show their season round, but when his manufacturing interprets, he could possibly be a middle-of-the-lineup cornerstone for the subsequent few years.