Logan Gilbert is coming off his finest season but, posting a 3.23 ERA and excellent strikeout and stroll charges over a Main League-leading 208 2/3 innings. The previous 14th general decide has lived as much as the hype since making his MLB debut in 2021, and whereas he has cemented his place within the Mariners’ rotation, he isn’t but a lock for the group’s future plans. Adam Jude of the Seattle Instances reviews that “there was little dialogue a couple of long-term deal” between the 2 sides, and “nothing is imminent in that regard.”
There are a number of explanation why the dearth of talks shouldn’t elevate an alarm for M’s followers. Gilbert is barely coming into his second 12 months of arbitration eligibility, and he’s beneath group management by 2027 as a Tremendous Two participant. Gilbert and the Mariners averted a listening to final winter by agreeing to a $4.05M wage for 2024, and the right-hander’s massive efficiency this 12 months has put him in line for a projected $8.1M wage in 2025.
These numbers will preserve rising if the 27-year-old Gilbert retains pitching effectively in his remaining arb years, however that may nonetheless symbolize a relative discount for the Mariners to have ace-level manufacturing of their rotation. Signing Gilbert to an extension previous to Opening Day would give the M’s some cost-certainty by the remainder of his arbitration years and past, and such a deal would possibly nonetheless find yourself being a discount since Gilbert would possibly simply be getting higher.
The 2024 season noticed Gilbert put up a career-best 27.4% strikeout fee and 31.7% whiff fee, along with his traditional glorious management. His 39.3% hard-hit ball fee was additionally the very best of his 4 Main League seasons, and whereas this solely ranked within the forty fourth percentile of all pitchers, Gilbert had by no means topped the eleventh percentile in any of his prior three years.
As a complete, Seattle’s rotation will not be solely maybe the very best in baseball but in addition probably the most cost-effective. Luis Castillo has the massive contract of the bunch within the type of the five-year, $108M extension he signed in September 2022, however Gilbert is coming into his second arb 12 months, George Kirby is projected for $5.5M in his first arb 12 months, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are nonetheless of their pre-arbitration years. Former sixth general decide Emerson Hancock hasn’t proven a lot over his 72 2/3 profession MLB innings, however he’s one other promising younger arm that may’ve gotten an extended look in just about any rotation that didn’t have such high quality and sturdiness.
This abundance of pitching expertise is nice for the Mariners in some ways, together with the extent of flexibility it offers the group in approaching extension talks. With a nod to the “you may by no means have sufficient pitching” credo, the M’s don’t essentially have to lock up Gilbert as quickly as doable since so many different gifted hurlers are readily available. The entire remaining group management for the non-Castillo pitchers offers the Mariners further time to weigh their choices about which of the youthful arms (if any) might be long-term cornerstones. As an example, if the M’s have already seen sufficient from Miller or Woo, signing both to an extension earlier of their careers would come at a decrease value than an extension for Gilbert.
If any of those starters aren’t actually in Seattle’s big-picture plans, a commerce is at all times doable, which is the broader theme of Jude’s piece. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has strongly downplayed the concept that the Mariners will deal from their rotation this offseason, although Dipoto’s stance might soften if one other group makes a powerful sufficient provide. Particularly, if that provide accommodates a relatively gifted younger hitter with further years of group management, transferring a starter for this hitter would assist a Seattle membership in sore want of offensive assist.
This isn’t to say that Gilbert would essentially be the pitcher traded, escalating wage however. One NL scout informed Jude that “in the event that they must commerce somebody, Miller would take advantage of sense,” although the scout additionally felt “it could be ridiculous for them to commerce any of their starters.” As Jude notes, Miller has such drastic dwelling/away splits (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings in Seattle, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings elsewhere) that different groups could also be cautious that Miller’s success has been a product of his pitcher-friendly ballpark. Castillo is the least seemingly commerce candidate, in accordance with one supply, because of his bigger contract and the truth that he’s coming into his age-32 season.
