Jon Becker: There’s been a bit little bit of a false impression right here, and this query is an efficient probability for me to clarify this! The A’s don’t
must have a payroll of $105M, but when they don’t, the burden of proof in a grievance shifts from the MLBPA to them — which means the A’s must defend themselves fairly than the MLBPA having to function as in the event that they’ll be presumed harmless. However grievances take years, so there’s no rapid punishment that occurs in the event that they aren’t at $105M. I do know the Marlins additionally shall be receiving the identical income sharing cash that the A’s will, unclear which different groups are additionally set to.
2:12
Or Elvis: Once we say a prospect had a cup of espresso within the majors, I believe Orelvis’s stat line applies. He was raking for awhile there within the minors earlier than his suspension. What are you listening to on him, and any cause to assume he might break camp with the group?
2:14
Jason Martinez: If the Jays go into spring coaching with Ernie Clement because the projected starter at 3B and don’t herald any competitors, that may inform me that they actually imagine in Orelvis making an impression sooner or later in 2025. Clement is a superbly tremendous stop-gap. I don’t assume they’ll stand pat, although, so Orelvis’ 2025 shall be all about bouncing again and on the point of take over at 2B or 3B in 2026. Or perhaps by the commerce deadline.
2:15
David Stearns: What do you see the Mets doing the remainder of the offseason aside from resigning Pete?
2:17
Jon Becker: If we presuppose they create Alonso again (not a given however that’s actually what I believe is likeliest), I believe they may use one other starting-caliber hitter as Marte/McNeil insurance coverage, ideally somebody who can play each INF and OF. Not any nice choices becoming the invoice on the FA market however Willi Castro involves thoughts as a believable commerce possibility with the Twins wanting to chop payroll.
2:17
BC26: Do you actually purchase NYY going with Cabrera/LeMahieu at 3B on Opening Day?
2:20
Jason Martinez: I don’t. Not many 3B choices in the event that they don’t commerce for Arenado — thus, the Paul DeJong rumor from yesterday — however they may simply depart Jazz at 3B and add one of many 2B choices (Brendan Rodgers, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Arraez commerce?)
2:20
Mr. Burrito: May you see D. Speeding carving out a job with 350 ABs as a someday catcher, someday COF? I really like my Dodgers, and I’m thrilled that their roster is borderline over-stuffed. However Speeding’s OBP+POWER profile feels important on a group with two energy bats age 33 or older. And even when he isn’t important this yr I believe it could be necessary for the Dodgers to groom Speeding and Pages and others to tackle key roles as Muncy, Freeman begin to age out. Ideas?
2:22
Jon Becker: Undoubtedly potential, although I believe they view him as extra of an outfielder than a catcher at this level. It might take an harm to get him enjoying time however I’d assume he’d be one of many first call-ups within the occasion of 1, perhaps solely behind whichever of Outman/Pages doesn’t get the final roster spot (assuming Chris Taylor sticks round). I haven’t seen how the Dodgers will deal with Ohtani’s workload when he’s again to pitching, however (and I’m simply speculating) they may return to his early-Angels schedule of not hitting earlier than and after (or perhaps only one or the opposite, now) his begin days.
2:22
twins: why is royce lewis the projected sixth hitter, had been they doing that in 2024?
2:24
Jason Martinez: Just one time in 2024 however they hardly ever had the large 3 (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) within the lineup collectively and Lewis was additionally actually dangerous within the 2nd half (74 wRC+). And Larnach/Wallner give them a pair of lefty bats that had been each excellent final season. Rather a lot can change, in fact, however that’s simply the place I landed after wanting over all the pieces at first of the offseason.
2:24
Peter: Hello People! There’s been some debate in MN Twins world over the state of the price range. It was reported within the Star Tribune yesterday that after finalizing all of the arbitration eligible gamers, the Twins payroll sits at $122.1, which with minimal wage gamers would carry it to $130. Nonetheless, Roster Useful resource has it at $140. Bref says $130. That is fairly essential, as a result of the FO has stated the wage have to be $130, so being $140 would imply needing to commerce simply to achieve the specified price range. Are you able to all clarify the place the discrepancy is coming from and what would possibly clarify the differing projections?
2:26
Jon Becker: I’ll take a better take care of we’re completed chatting right here, however it appears like B-Ref solely consists of sufficient pre-arbitration gamers to fill a 26-man roster, fairly than baking in time for accidents, which we do (seven extra pre-arb gamers per yr as placeholders, basically). That’s not the whole lot of the $10M distinction however that’s an enormous chunk of it proper there. Re: the Twins themselves, I’ll be curious to see based mostly on the remainder of their offseason if that $130M is a tough quantity or if there’s some wiggle room.
2:26
Yuniesky Betancourt: Brewers 3B. Finest (affordable) choices? Moncada, DeJong, inner?
2:30
Jason Martinez: Moncada can be fascinating, however undecided he’ll even be low cost sufficient for the Brewers. I’m guessing he can nonetheless get round 1-yr, $8MM on a prove-it deal. They appeared to actually like Oliver Dunn final season so undecided if he’s fallen off their radar or in the event that they nonetheless imagine in him. I believe there’s at the very least an honest probability that Caleb Durbin performs 2B, Ortiz stays at 3B, and Turang strikes to SS.
Undecided how shut their two 3B prospects are to the majors. Brock Wilken struggled in AA final season. Mike Boeve tore it up in AA in a smaller pattern. Luke Adams was excellent in Hello-A
2:30
Dan H: Thanks a lot for having these chats! With Burnes off the board and a Sasaki signing extraordinarily unlikely, what lifelike strikes do you see the Giants doing that might make them greater than a fringe contender for the final wildcard spot? I’d like to see them commerce for somebody like Luis Roberts for upside or Brandon Lowe/Yandy Diaz for some stability, however it’s arduous to know what they will do when what they really want are stars.
2:32
Jon Becker: They’re in a very powerful spot as a result of their farm system isn’t nice (Eldridge is the one man with large commerce worth, and I believe they’re right to rebuff any makes an attempt to pry him away), however the FA market is de facto working dry on something even approaching star-level expertise. I believe Flaherty makes loads of sense even with Verlander; undecided you may belief Ray and Hicks to offer you greater than 45 begins mixed, and even that quantity could be pushing it.
2:32
Visitor: Hello Jason, how assured are you on the fifth starters (SP). Like how do you arrive at that conclusion between the fifth and sixth pitcher battles.
2:34
Jason Martinez: Every state of affairs is exclusive (be at liberty to ask a few explicit group) however most groups aren’t taking probabilities with their rotation by leaving 1-2 spots up for grabs. These competitions will occur due to accidents. One other necessary query nowadays shall be how typically a group makes use of a spot-starter or bullpen sport. I’ll record some groups with 6 starters and loads of groups may have 5 starters with an apparent spot-starter candidate within the bullpen.
2:35
drplantwrench: wanting on the out there FA’s and their ZiPS i’m 100% satisfied that the Angels ought to be tripping over themselves to focus on HSK. am i loopy?
2:36
Jon Becker: They’d must rearrange some issues as soon as Kim’s shoulder is wholesome (and Neto’s, for that matter), however I don’t assume that is loopy! If Kim’s prepared to play second (I might completely perceive if he’s not, since he’s an excellent shortstop) they may slide Rengifo to 3rd and Rendon to the bench. Their protection is weak at loads of completely different spots, particularly if Soler shall be enjoying some outfield, so having one other nice glove would assist them quite a bit.
2:36
Tim: What would an affordable expectation for Del Castillo PT with Moreno nonetheless the starter? If he will get AB’s at 1B or DH, does that cement rosterability in a 16t dynasty?
2:38
Jason Martinez: Finest-case (barring an harm to Moreno) can be that he wins the backup catcher job and the Dbacks discover some at-bats for him because the DH. Would possibly take one other harm to open a few of these DH at-bats — Pavin Smith is at present anticipated to get a majority of these — however I’d pencil him in for round 300 PAs. The bat appears legit. Moreno looks as if he’d get 75% of begins when wholesome, which limits Del Castillo’s probabilities behind the plate. Additionally why he might return to AAA if there aren’t loads of DH at-bats early on.
2:38
Jack: What’s going to the Phillies outfield setup seem like come opening day (platoons, and so on)? I’m nonetheless undecided I perceive the Kepler signing
2:40
Jon Becker: Everybody’s response when he signed was “oh they have to be buying and selling Castellanos now, proper???” and whereas they’d absolutely like to, I’m undecided they may because it’s clear they didn’t have one thing lined up proper when Kepler signed. Sounds prefer it’ll be Kepler in left (Dombrowski stated he’ll begin in opposition to lefties, however we’ll see about that), Marsh in middle, Castellanos in proper. Weston Wilson and Johan Rojas will play quite a bit in opposition to lefties and Rojas ought to make loads of late-in-game appearances to get Castellanos off the sphere.
2:41
Bucs outfield: Will Pittsburgh signal Grichuk AND Verdugo? If no, which is extra possible?
2:43
Jason Martinez: Looks as if an excellent match for each and I believe most likely throughout the Pirates’ price range. Grichuk would possibly wish to signal with a greater group as a 4th OF/platoon vs LHP however it may also be enjoyable to play in Pittsburgh for half-season after which get traded to a contender.
2:43
jaygray007: occupied with the nook outfield market. Who involves thoughts to you as “groups who’re making an attempt to win” and “nonetheless wants a beginning nook outfielder” (and likewise appears to have some cash left)? I’ve a “feeling” that there are extra gamers than apparent jobs open, however i’m undecided and that’s why im asking you
2:44
Jon Becker: A few of these groups are working on tight budgets, however the Jays, Royals, Astros, Braves, Pirates, and Padres all might use one other COF for certain.
2:45
TRANE: any probability we see Nolan Gorman traded? undecided what the Playing cards on doing on the entire this offseason
2:47
Jason Martinez: Seems like they’re making an attempt their hardest to commerce Arenado, which I assume would open 3B for Gorman. Now, in the event that they decided that Arenado was staying put, I’m certain they’d contemplate it. However, even with 4 years of management, it may not be price it if his commerce worth has decreased an excessive amount of after his poor 2024. He does have minor league choices so perhaps they’d let him rake in AAA earlier than buying him.
2:47
AL Central Casting: The Twins now have 4 catchers on their 40-man (5 if you happen to rely Gasper). Do you see them buying and selling anybody, and in that case, who? Cartaya isn’t prepared and Carmago looks as if the depth man behind Jeffers and Vazquez, however not so certain they like him sufficient to be a part of their catching time-share in the event that they commerce one of many MLB guys.
2:49
Jon Becker: Vázquez can be the apparent man to maneuver since he’s attributable to make $10M (they’d must cowl a few of it to make a commerce work). I agree that Cartaya and Camargo may not be as ultimate as a veteran like Vázquez because the backup, but when slicing wage is the first aim, I believe they’d fairly simply roll with one of many two pre-arbitration guys fairly than spend a number of million on a special backup.
2:49
jaygray007: I really actually promise to by no means ask an annoying query like this once more, however are you able to please contemplate placing IKF low within the Pirates’ lineup and placing Horwitz or McCutchen or anybody else at leadoff lol? I do know you might have your causes for having it how it’s, however the aesthetic would simply really feel so significantly better to me as a Pirate fan. Hes simply such a beneath common hitter.
2:52
Jason Martinez: Yet one more addition to their lineup and I’d transfer him right down to Seventh-ish. He was their leadoff man for the final 2 months of the season and Cutch was the cleanup hitter for the final month. In all probability extra in regards to the high quality of his at-bats fairly than the end result. However, I agree, it isn’t aesthetically pleasing with IKF on the prime of the lineup.
2:52
Ham Fighter: Cal Raleigh, Adley Rutschman, and William Contreras had been born like 14 months aside, every have 13 level one thing WAR over the past three years, and are all slated to hit FA on the identical time. You see any of them extending early (Raleigh is the one Boras man) or are all of them hoping to develop into the primary $200M catcher in free company?
2:54
Jon Becker: Simply enjoying the chances right here, however I’ll guess that at the very least considered one of them does, certain. Catchers’ better harm danger makes locking in an extension, even when they’re probably leaving cash on the desk, interesting to them, extra so than it’s for different place gamers. However the nearer they get to FA the much less possible they’re.
2:54
John B: Do you assume the variety of arm accidents to the Dodgers younger SP will have an effect on Sasaki’s determination?
2:57
Jason Martinez: It’s an excellent query and, as a Padres fan, I hope that’s the case. However, sadly, I believe torn elbow ligaments are simply a part of a pitcher unlocking the very best model of themselves. And I don’t know if it issues as a result of it’s taking place to some extent with each group. Dodgers had been an excessive case, at the very least in 2024, however I don’t know if any pitcher would assume they’re extra prone to get injured due to the best way that the Dodgers do issues.
2:57
Chris: Intestine feeling, Yanks make an IF addn or go together with what they’ve?
2:57
wheelhouse: under-the-radar candidate for yankees’ 3B (or 2B)? would the pirates transfer ke’bryan hayes to get out of that dedication, and is he fixable?
2:58
Jon Becker: I’d be very stunned if they simply caught with what they’ve, and to reply the second query, undecided about Hayes for them (as a lot as I really like his protection I’m simply undecided he’ll ever elevate the ball sufficient). Jose Iglesias is smart as a man who might bounce round between 2B/3B/a bit SS, we haven’t heard a lot in any respect on him this winter.
2:58
Claxon: Is Sasaki holding up the SP marketplace for the week? It looks as if what I’m seeing.
3:01
Jason Martinez: Yep, and never solely the SP market. For groups with a restricted price range (SD), whether or not they signal Sasaki or not will make an enormous distinction in how they fill out their roster. Signing Sasaki permits them to place no matter $ they must spend in the direction of different areas. And in the event that they don’t get Sasaki, they possible must spend $ on a SP. And for groups that may afford somebody like Jack Flaherty, they’re most likely holding off in case they get Sasaki for nearly nothing. After which they’d have some payroll flexibility so as to add to different elements of their roster.
3:01
Ace: What on earth do the Blue Jays do?
3:02
Jon Becker: Somebody has to take their cash sooner or later, proper? Undecided it’ll be Alonso, Santander, or Bregman, however perhaps they create Pivetta again residence to Canada and add somebody like Profar?
3:03
Visitor: When do you assume we are going to see Colby Thomas for the Athletics? Appears that Seth Brown is his competitors. Is it higher than a 50% probability that he begins on the roster?
3:04
Jason Martinez: As issues stand, I’d say that’s the one spot within the lineup that’s just about up for grabs within the spring. And Thomas and Denzel Clarke can be within the combine to compete with Brown. However there’s nonetheless an extended option to go. Very prone to be at the very least yet one more addition earlier than spring coaching.
3:05
Twins: Any probability the Twins commerce Larnach?
3:06
Jon Becker: Don’t assume so. He’s low cost ($2.1M) and except they wish to be actually aggressive and promote Emmanuel Rodriguez, something they do to interchange him would value extra.
3:06
Billy: Hello guys! What do you assume Arizona finally ends up doing with their DH spot? Pavin Smith had a pleasant yr final yr however he’s not precisely a reputation that strikes worry, and it looks as if they may most likely use yet one more man like that
3:08
Jason Martinez: Small pattern however he was excellent final season (.896 OPS in 158 PA) and Dbacks will possible wish to see if it carries over if given common enjoying time (at the very least vs RHP). Additionally, they most likely wish to depart open the likelihood for Adrian Del Castillo and Jordan Lawlar to earn some at-bats. Lawlar (former prime prospect) wouldn’t essentially be the DH, however he might bounce across the infield (2B/3B/SS) with Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez getting off their ft sometimes.
3:09
J: What SP do you assume is smart for the Cubs to focus on through both commerce or FA?
3:10
Jon Becker: Flaherty’s the large identify in FA and wouldn’t value a draft decide, although undecided the Cubs wish to spend most likely $20M+ per yr over a number of years. In commerce, Dylan Stop is the highest possibility by far, however there’s additionally Luis Castillo and one of many Diamondbacks’ further guys (almost certainly Montgomery).
3:11
Sanford: Do you realistically assume Orioles will platoon Holliday, or are you simply hedging? If he’s nonetheless not prepared for the full-time job, I’d think about they’d simply ship him down once more fairly than platoon him
3:12
Jason Martinez: Crucial factor shall be to construct up his confidence so he doesn’t get despatched again to AAA once more. Maintaining him away from powerful LHP (and perhaps all LHP for some time) shall be a part of that. He’s not the kind of participant to wish a platoon as soon as he settles in. I simply assume they’ll be very cautious about once they determine that he’s an on a regular basis participant.
3:14
Hugh: If the Angels lastly notice they should tear-down, what do you assume they may moderately get for Trout? Is he only a $$ dump at this level?
3:15
Jon Becker: Unhappy to say it, however I believe he’d simply be a cash dump at his age and along with his harm historical past. Value noting he has a full no-trade and has by no means proven any indication by any means of waiving it, too.
3:15
Phil: I maintain listening to Boston is in on Bregman- How does that work? They’re not going to have Bregman play 2B & block Campbell are they? Devers has to maneuver to 1B, proper? Then they commerce/DG Casas?
3:17
Jason Martinez: Bregman could be open to enjoying 2B for 1-2 seasons earlier than Devers strikes to 1B. But it surely’s extra possible that Devers strikes to 1B, Casas strikes to DH, and Yoshida (plus $) will get traded.
3:17
The Oberamtmann: I do know Waldo, Peraza, and DJLM are all uninspiring choices, however am I incorrect to be annoyed that the Yankees are checking in on gamers like de Jong? Like, it’s an excessive amount of to ask that, if the tires you’re kicking are usually not so nice, perhaps you decide to the tires you might have at residence?
3:18
Jon Becker: Checking in on gamers is simply a part of the job — they’ve most likely at the very least reached out on dozens of free brokers, similar to each group has. Wouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into it except a deal truly occurs, wherein case I’d agree with you that they should be aiming greater.
3:18
Weird1@Portland: Will Dubon be the HOU 3B starter?
3:20
Jason Martinez: Isaac Paredes is their 3B and Dubon ought to proceed to be a super-utilityman. The Astros have at the very least one gap to fill within the OF so Dubon could possibly be within the combine for normal enjoying time on the market in the event that they don’t herald one other OF or two.
3:21
Freeman, freeland, who provides a hoot: what do you assume are the probabilities Alex Freeland will get the decision and +200 PAs this yr
3:22
Jon Becker: Fairly low, since that’s about two months of normal enjoying time, and he’d must do higher than he did at Triple-A final yr to actually power the difficulty. He’s behind Betts and Rojas on the SS depth chart and Taylor and Kim are able to enjoying there too.
3:22
Pumpsie: Thank-you a lot for all of your work on the Depth Charts/Payroll! With the arb deadline yesterday, I’m questioning if on the Payroll tab you might transfer the final-year arb guys (Guerrero, Tucker, and so on) up into the Assured part as soon as they’ve gone via arb for the final time. I’m certain you’ve weighed professionals and cons; if I had a vote, I’d vote to have these guys within the higher part.
3:23
Jason Martinez: I imagine I’ve completed this prior to now, at the very least as we get nearer to the commerce deadline. Be at liberty to remind me round Could if it hasn’t occurred.
3:24
Ham Fighter: I used to be type of confused by the Brewers leaving Shane Smith unprotected within the Rule 5 so they may take Connor Thomas as an alternative. In terms of the Brewers and fringe pitching strikes do I simply must belief the method?
3:25
Jon Becker: I don’t like to situation blanket benefit-of-the-doubt to any groups, however the Brewers have actually been proper up there at or in the direction of the highest with making the proper calls. They might additionally maintain Thomas and find yourself getting Smith again if the White Sox return him anyway.
3:26
comish4lif: Do you count on the Nats to deal with the gaping abyss that’s their bullpen?
3:28
Jason Martinez: For certain. With the reliever market at a standstill (most likely ready on Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman), it’s powerful to know in the event that they’ll be in on any of the large names to develop into their nearer … Kenley, Yates, Robertson, Estevez. Or in the event that they go the cheaper route (Sewald, Leclerc). Or perhaps they’ll be the newest group to offer Kimbrel an opportunity.
3:29
TRANE: what % of MLB video games do you guys at the very least catch aside of? 10% needs to be elite?
3:30
Jon Becker: This can be a excellent query to finish on as we wrap up right here! I watch 4 video games without delay all season lengthy and can change as video games finish or are blowouts, so I believe I watch at the very least a number of pitches of… 65% of video games perhaps? 75%? It feels loopy even typing out that prime a quantity and now I wish to monitor this season, haha.
3:32
Jason Martinez: I watch a majority of Padres video games, together with round 40-50 in particular person at Petco Park. After which loads of highlights and I attempt to catch a MiLB sport as typically as potential. A whole lot of baseball however, as you may inform, we do actually like baseball.
3:34
Jason Martinez: Thanks for becoming a member of us! We’ll be again subsequent Friday on the identical time. As all the time, be at liberty to ship over a query on one of many social media websites if we didn’t get to it right here.
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