Ryan Pressly Accepts Trade to Cubs, Paul Sewald Signs With Guardians

Because the reliever market picked up during the last week, two right-handers, each former closers, discovered new properties within the Central divisions. First, final Wednesday, Paul Sewald agreed to a one-year cope with the Cleveland Guardians. Then, on Sunday, Ryan Pressly waived his no-trade clause to ensure that the Houston Astros to ship him to the Chicago Cubs for the ultimate assured 12 months of his contract.

Whereas each of those pitchers are doubtless previous their peaks by way of stuff, they’ll look to proceed being contributors with their new golf equipment. Let’s look at the potential influence of those strikes and talk about how the 2 pitchers will match into the bullpens of their new groups.

Sewald Joins Elite Cleveland Bullpen

Coming off a down 12 months relative to his earlier three seasons, Sewald’s cope with the Guardians is for one 12 months and $6 million, with a $10 million mutual possibility for 2026. The transfer solidifies the center a part of their bullpen, which already was among the best within the majors. With Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis anchoring the group, Sewald will occupy a lesser position than he’s held over the previous few years. That’s not a nasty factor for him, as he can work to return to type with out the strain of getting to ship in high-leverage innings.

As velocities have elevated through the years, and hitters have tailored to them, the margins for error for pitchers residing within the low-90s band have grown thinner and thinner. What we noticed from Sewald final season is an effective instance of what occurs when pitchers with such a profile lose even only one tick on their fastballs.

From 2021-23, a three-year stretch throughout which Sewald was one of many higher relievers in baseball, his four-seamer ranged from 92.2 mph to 92.5 mph. It was extraordinarily constant on that entrance. Then, in 2024, that quantity dropped right down to 91.4 mph on common, and with that, his efficiency additionally dropped. Here’s a fast abstract of how Sewald’s efficiency on his heater regressed final season:

As his fastball velocity fell final 12 months, Sewald noticed a pointy lower in its effectiveness by each whiffs and general efficiency. This may very well be associated to the pitch’s location and its launch angle; during the last 4 seasons, he’s been throwing his fastball progressively greater and better within the zone and releasing it nearer to the center of the pitcher’s mound. Mix that with a dip in velocity and, all of a sudden, the pitch was simply extra regular than it had been up to now.

One other drawback for Sewald final 12 months was his sweeper, the pitch that was most chargeable for turning him right into a high-leverage reliever upon becoming a member of the Mariners in 2021. His general numbers with it recommend it was nonetheless a weapon — he held opponents to a .196 common (.214 xBA) and a .214 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) towards it — however a more in-depth look tells a distinct story.

Throughout his aforementioned three-year stretch of excellence, he was snug throwing his sweeper to each lefties and righties as a solution to hold them off his fastball. In every of these three seasons, he threw his sweeper a minimum of 45% of the time towards righties and a minimum of 35% of the time when dealing with lefties, and it was efficient towards either side. That’s particularly vital as a result of Sewald is generally a two-pitch pitcher. Final 12 months, nevertheless, lefties teed off on his sweeper. Examine this out:

So what modified? Maybe a few of it may be attributed to his diminished fastball velocity, which has minimize the speed hole between his fastball and sweeper to eight.3 mph, down from 9.7 in 2022. Besides, the velo distinction between the 2 pitches was additionally 8.3 mph in 2023, and that season each pitches have been nonetheless efficient towards lefties and righties. The better subject right here appears to be the identical factor that threw off his fastball: his launch level, which additionally shifted extra towards the center of the mound when throwing his sweeper. Consequently, he struggled to command his sweeper in 2024, as you may see in these two warmth maps. The primary one is from 2023, the second from 2024.

He began throwing the pitch extra within the center plate and fewer typically out of the zone. Even with lesser command, he might nonetheless hold righties at bay together with his sweeper as a result of the pitch breaks away from them. In opposition to lefties, although, he has much less margin for error together with his location. Sweepers that stay within the zone towards lefties break properly into their bat paths. That’s not a recipe for achievement.

It’s price noting that a few of Sewald’s struggles in 2024 may very well be injury-related, as he handled each neck and indirect accidents that might’ve brought about his dip in velocity. These illnesses may additionally clarify his change in location and horizontal launch level, because the neck and indirect muscle groups are particularly vital for a pitcher’s upper-body mechanics. Sewald turns 35 in late Might, so a few of his diminished stuff may very well be attributed to getting old, but when he’s wholesome, we should always count on him to have some form of rebound — even when he doesn’t get again to the height efficiency from his days with the Mariners.

Pressly Takes Over as Cubs Nearer

For a lot of the offseason, the Astros have been making an attempt to commerce Pressly to shed some wage, and as they revived their efforts to re-sign Alex Bregman final week, shifting Pressly appeared to turn into a fair better precedence. After all, Houston has not but introduced again Bregman, however both method, buying and selling Pressly gave the Astros extra monetary flexibility.

Houston despatched over $5.5 million to cowl Pressly’s wage this season, however nothing if his contract vests for 2026. The Cubs despatched again Juan Bello, a 20-year-old pitching prospect who was just lately ranked no. 31 on the Cubs’ prospect listing. Bello is a 35+ FV beginning pitcher who, in line with our prospect writers Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice, “has sufficient projectability and present stuff to be forecast in a depth starter position, however he’ll must harness his secondaries within the zone extra typically to persistently get extra superior hitters out and switch over a lineup.”

The 36-year-old Pressly had been a beneficial member of the bullpen because the Astros traded for him in late July 2018, and through the identical three-year stretch wherein Sewald shined, Pressly emerged as one of many prime closers within the American League. Nonetheless, Houston’s signing of Josh Hader earlier than final season relegated Pressly to a setup position and finally made him expendable this offseason. Astros GM Dana Brown stated earlier at this time that the Hader signing and Pressly’s corresponding demotion within the bullpen pecking order brought about a “fracture” in his and Pressly’s relationship. Now with the Cubs, Pressly is anticipated to return to closing video games.

Much like Sewald, Pressly is coming off a season with a notable lower in velocity, from 94.7 mph in 2023 to 93.8 mph final 12 months. His diminishing fastball didn’t precisely come as a surpsise, although. In 2022, batters posted a .402 xwOBA towards his four-seamer, and in response, he minimize its utilization from 32.9% that 12 months right down to 23.1% in 2023. He leaned extra on his slider, which for years has been his greatest pitch by run worth by a large margin. It’s odd, then, that he used his four-seamer extra typically than another pitch in 2024. This pitch combine shift didn’t repay, as opponents slugged .500 towards his heater with a .371 wOBA and a .365 xwOBA, in comparison with their .333 SLG, .276 wOBA, and .271 xwOBA towards his slider. I think about Chicago will get him again to throwing primarily sliders once more subsequent season. For some extra context, here’s a three-year snapshot of Pressly’s Stuff+ and utilization for his three fundamental pitches:

Relievers who change groups on the lookout for bounce backs are at all times enjoyable tales to comply with. Each Sewald and Pressly are within the later phases of their careers however have a chance to be vital contributors on contending golf equipment. I’ll be taking note of any potential changes they make come spring time.