Scouting the Celtics’ potential first round opponents

With the Celtics locked into the second seed and the playoffs on the horizon, it’s that point of yr once we begin sizing up potential opponents. Due to the Play-In format, Boston might face any of the 4 groups ranked seventh by means of tenth within the Japanese Convention.

Whereas some may pencil Boston into the second spherical already, every of those groups brings one thing completely different to the desk. In the present day, I’ll break down their strengths, weaknesses, how they’ve fared towards the Celtics, and what Boston should do to win.

Orlando Magic (50.9%)

Boston went 1-2 towards Orlando this season, however the context issues. One loss got here throughout a dreadful taking pictures evening (underneath 25% from deep), and the opposite noticed the Celtics relaxation all their starters. Of their lone full-squad effort, Boston dominated 121-94.

Orlando has an thrilling younger wing duo in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, however they lack the depth and expertise to maintain tempo with elite groups.

Keys to Victory:

Drive the ball out of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner’s palms.

The Magic’s energy is wing play with Banchero and Wagner, however the Celtics have confirmed they will make them uncomfortable. By zeroing in on Wagner and Banchero with distinctive defensive schemes — like a box-and-one from the win — the Celtics can power the remainder of the Magic squad to beat them.

With a comparatively weak supporting solid, a scoring barrage from the Magic’s “different guys” can be a uncommon sight in a playoff ambiance. Moreover, even when the matchup turns into a shootout between every group’s wing duo, I really like Boston’s odds with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Pack the paint on protection

Orlando is admittedly dangerous at taking pictures threes. They shoot 31.5% from past the arc, the worst within the league by two % — sure, even worse than groups just like the Wizards who’re most likely attempting to overlook.

Boston can pack the paint and power Magic drivers into kickouts. There received’t be many threats on the skin to punish the Celtics in these conditions. In the event that they do discover some rhythm past the arc, like the primary matchup, I anticipate the Celtics to regulate accordingly this time. Nonetheless, that earlier taking pictures efficiency appears extra like an anomaly than the norm.

Set up the three-pointer early

This could possibly be a key for any Celtics recreation, however it’s particularly necessary towards the Magic. The Magic common probably the most blocks per recreation of any group (5.9 per recreation) and the second least opponent paint factors per recreation — they proved it with 9 blocks towards the Celtics of their first win.

For the reason that Celtics weren’t pulling down their threes, Orlando collapsed the paint and was prepared for pressured drives and post-ups. Nonetheless, when the Celtics have been cashing in at their standard clip within the subsequent recreation, issues opened up.

Whereas Derrick White and Payton Pritchard have been getting going from the skin, Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis have been doing injury within the paint with a lot cleaner driving lanes — and that’s the fantastic thing about Celtics basketball. If the Celtics don’t wish to play into Orlando’s hand, they have to begin hitting from past the arc early.

Consensus:

Whereas there are particular matchups that the Celtics can expose with regularity, this sequence nonetheless received’t be a cakewalk. The Celtics are 3-4 of their final seven matchups towards Orlando.

The Magic are younger, hungry, and difficult on protection. If the Celtics lose focus the Magic can exploit them. Nonetheless, if the Celtics play to their strengths and keep away from chilly spells or psychological lapses, they need to deal with the Magic in 5. This could be the hardest of the attainable play-in matchups, however Boston has the sting.

Atlanta Hawks (25.3%)

Atlanta is scrappy — and no stranger to creating issues nearer than they need to be. The Celtics blew them out within the first assembly with out Brown or Porzingis, however the subsequent two video games have been tight, together with a wild NBA Cup loss with out Trae Younger and an infuriating extra time defeat in January.

The Hawks dangle round. They linger even when it looks as if they’re performed for. If Boston desires to keep away from any pointless drama, right here’s what must occur.

Keys to Victory:

Rebound, rebound, rebound

The Hawks have bested the Celtics within the rebound class in each wins, particularly on offense. Within the NBA Cup, the Hawks hauled in 20 offensive rebounds which was capped off by an embarrassing put-back to seal the sport.

Always having a paint presence to fend off Atlanta’s savvy rebounders can be key. When Porzingis and Al Horford have been out within the January matchup, Luke Kornet was truly phenomenal on the boards. The Celtics’ downfall was straight correlated to when Joe Mazzulla surprisingly determined to play small ball to shut the sport.

Will probably be an all-around effort on the boards, because the Hawks host loads of athletic wings. Boston wants a constant paint presence, particularly from Porzingis and Horford, but additionally gang rebounding from the wings to cease guys like Risacher and Daniels from crashing in.

The Hawks common the second most steals of any group within the league, and that has proven towards the Celtics. Of their final matchup, Boston turned the ball over 20 occasions, 16 of which have been from Atlanta steals.

Atlanta likes to play quick, pushing the ball down the ground after they create turnovers. If the Celtics can power the Hawks into predominantly working half-court offense, they are going to be a lot simpler to cease.

Trae Younger is likely one of the worst defenders within the NBA, and the Celtics ought to make it their mission to seek out him on each swap. Actually, the Celtics’ largest battle got here when Younger was out.

I can already see it. Jrue Vacation does certainly one of his signature “I’m going to place my shoulder down and pile drive my defender into the ring for a left-hand layup” strikes and embarrasses Younger.

Even when Vacation, or some other participant driving on Younger, does not rating, the pressured collapse will create improbable alternatives for the Celtics’ offense.

Consensus

The final time these groups confronted off within the playoffs, the Celtics received 4-2 in a primary spherical matchup. Per standard, Atlanta hung round and made a 2-0 sequence sadly tight in the long run.

For a Boston group that wishes to make a deep playoff run, it might be of their greatest curiosity to place the main focus up, put the Hawks away rapidly, and never waste any power.

Miami Warmth (13.0%)

Boston and Miami aren’t any strangers to one another over the previous few years, however the feeling is completely different this time round. With out Jimmy Butler, the Warmth are a shell of themselves, and “Warmth tradition” doesn’t appear to imply a lot anymore.

The Celtics are 3-1 towards the Miami Warmth this season, with two dominant blowout wins and one shut loss after an extended street journey. Though they aren’t very threatening, they might nonetheless be issues to wash up in a possible matchup.

Keys to Victory:

Management the Herro-Adebayo Choose and Roll

Miami received the final recreation largely as a result of Boston taking part in drop protection on excessive decide and rolls. The philosophy was sound; working over the display screen forces the worst shot in sometimes low share mid-range pictures. Nonetheless, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have their decide and roll all the way down to a science.

Herro had his means, both selecting up pace for a inventive drive that often resulted in a foul, freezing the protection with a clean pull-up, or throwing it again out to Bam. This was the engine that made the Warmth hum.

Having Jrue Vacation, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis again will assist the Celtics cease Miami’s motion, however they’ll nonetheless want to speak on switches and keep away from previous errors.

Dictate the tempo and restrict turnovers

Erik Spoelstra is a improbable coach, however he is aware of his group doesn’t have an ideal probability. His best choice can be to attempt to drag the Celtics into lengthy, drawn-out offensive possessions so the Warmth can arrange their protection.

The Warmth is probably not the identical group of years previous, however they haven’t misplaced their grind-it-out playstyle on protection. If the Celtics can push the ball down the courtroom and keep away from isolation-heavy offense in any respect prices, they will keep away from this lure.

Care for enterprise early

Within the two blowout wins to start out the season sequence, the Celtics put their foot down early towards Miami. Within the different two video games, they let Miami construct some early momentum. The very last thing the Celtics need is for the Warmth pondering they’ve a shot.

If Boston lets the Warmth dangle round, they’ll begin believing — and that’s when Spoelstra’s squad turns into harmful. Shut the door earlier than it opens.

Consensus

To be frank, there isn’t a lot to fret about with this Miami squad. Moreover, Miami will most likely tank their means out of a playoff spot. Nonetheless, they’re one of many best-coached groups within the league and positively have unfavorable emotions in direction of the Celtics.

Chicago Bulls (10.9%)

Chicago may be locked within the tenth seed once more, however this yr’s group has a bit extra life. With Giddey, White, and rookie Matas Buzelis giving them a recent look, there’s one thing to construct on. Boston went 3-1 towards them, together with two comfy 20+ level wins.

One loss got here throughout Boston’s mid-season droop — poor taking pictures, technical fouls, and all-around frustration. However outdoors of that, the Celtics have largely cruised towards Chicago.

Porzingis appears to like taking part in the Chicago Bulls, as he has averaged 24.3 factors and eight.5 rebounds towards them this season. Most just lately, he had 34 factors and 11 rebounds in certainly one of his greatest shows of the season.

The Bulls don’t have anybody to bang with him on the within and by no means appear to discover a resolution — look no additional than his 8 consecutive factors within the 2nd quarter of the December recreation.

Even when Porzingis is not doing injury from the block, Nikola Vucevic can’t sustain with him on the skin. Getting KP concerned early will open every little thing up.

Don’t die with the three

The Celtics have confirmed that they’re keen to reside and die by the three-point shot, however that isn’t essential towards the Bulls. If issues flip chilly, drives to the basket have to be the reply.

On December nineteenth, the Celtics misplaced to the Bulls as a result of they pressured three-pointers up whereas they weren’t falling. Simply two days later, they blew Chicago out of the water by forcing the ball into the paint. In that recreation, they received the factors within the paint battle 60-38, and 32 of their 100 pictures got here straight on the cup.

Even when the three-ball is falling, the Celtics shouldn’t overlook that the paint is open for the taking. A wholesome steadiness inside and outdoors of the arc would result in some blowouts.

Don’t overthink it, give the ball to Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is averaging 31.3 factors, 11.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists towards the Bulls this season. If you happen to dropped his uncharacteristic 16-point efficiency within the newest matchup, his averages can be lurching nearer to 40 factors per recreation.

It’s fairly easy. The Bulls don’t have anybody able to bothering Tatum. It’s fairly easy. Chicago has a few of the worst wing depth in all the league, and Jayson Tatum simply so occurs to be the most effective wing within the league.

Typically it’s simply as simple as placing the ball in Huge Deuce’s palms.

Consensus

The Bulls aren’t an actual menace — however they aren’t the identical stagnant group from previous years, both. They’ve received younger power and a bit of confidence. Nonetheless, Boston ought to roll by means of this sequence in 4 or 5 video games, particularly in the event that they maintain it easy and lean on their stars.