Sonny Gray Changes Teams. Again.

The Boston Pink Sox have acquired veteran right-hander Sonny Grey and money from the St. Louis Cardinals, in trade for pitchers Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke, and both money or a participant to be named later. Appears easy sufficient.

After 13 seasons within the majors, you all know Grey by now: quick man out of Vanderbilt. Huge, sluggish curveball, however not a ton of velo. Modifications groups each two or three years. In these 13 seasons, Grey’s two finest WAR seasons are 5.4 and 4.5, however he’s posted 4 extra seasons of between 3.5 and three.9 WAR, and three others of between 2.4 and a couple of.7 WAR. That is the Toyota Sienna of pitchers: You don’t keep up nights dreaming about him, and he could be a little expensive, however he’ll get you and your loved ones the place they should go together with an absolute minimal of fuss.

The Pink Sox made the playoffs in 2025. I don’t suppose I’m going out on a limb by assuming they’d prefer to make the playoffs once more in 2026. If I had been within the playoff-making enterprise, I’d welcome the chance so as to add Sonny Grey to my group.

Grey got here into the majors with an honest quantity of hype; he got here from what I’d name the second era of elite prospects to develop underneath Tim Corbin at Vandy. (It’s about 50/50 that Grey will go David Value to develop into the all-time profession WAR chief amongst Vandy alums someday in 2026. As soon as that occurs, he ought to retain that title till and until Dansby Swanson hangs round lengthy sufficient to haul him in.)

Early in Grey’s profession, when he was placing up large innings totals and ending on the Cy Younger podium for the Athletics, I wasn’t an enormous fan. I believed he didn’t get sufficient strikeouts to rely as a legit no. 1 starter. Certainly, even now you wouldn’t need him to begin Sport 1 of a playoff sequence, however excellent news, Boston already has Garrett Crochet for that. And if Grey’s beginning, say, Sport 3, that’s a superb signal on your rotation.

In recent times, Grey has began leaking fastball velocity — as most pitchers of their mid-30s do — however he’s compensated by leaning right into a cutter and changeup, making him a legit six-pitch pitcher since 2023. On the identical time, he’s gone the fitting approach along with his strikeout and stroll numbers. Throughout his time with the A’s and Yankees, Grey struck out 20.9% of opponents and walked 8.2%. In two seasons with the Cardinals, he struck out 28.4% of opponents and walked 5.4%.

The Cardinals, who’re in all probability not within the playoff-making enterprise for the time being, signed Grey to a three-year, $75 million contract earlier than the 2024 season, leaving one yr and $25 million price of AAV, plus an choice, left to run. Take into account the pitchers who simply accepted the qualifying provide of $22.025 million over one yr: Brandon Woodruff and Shota Imanaga. I’d relatively have Grey than these guys.

Which isn’t to downplay the dangers of hitching one’s wagon to a 36-year-old right-hander whose fastball averaged just below 91 mph final season. Grey additionally posted a 4.28 ERA in 2025, which is his worst determine since 2018. Now, his FIP was practically a full run higher, and a variety of the ERA injury was confined to a couple really disastrous begins, however that’s nonetheless price conserving in thoughts.

Then there’s the contract state of affairs. As a result of Grey’s three-year contract didn’t name for a straight-up $25 million wage; it paid him simply $10 million in 2024, $25 million in 2025, and was as a result of pay him $35 million in 2026, with an extra $5 million assured within the type of an choice buyout.

That’s ludicrous. If Grey’s contract had been any extra backloaded, Huge Sean could be writing songs about it. That’s how shady rent-to-own equipment shops value out fridges. Fortunate for the Pink Sox, they checked the ledger earlier than they known as within the commerce, and had been in a position to restructure Grey’s deal and get the Cardinals to kick in $20 million in money.

Grey will now receives a commission $31 million for 2026, with a $10 million buyout of a mutual choice for 2027. (The additional $1 million is for waiving his no-trade clause.) With the Cardinals’ contributions, that leaves Boston to pay $21 million for one yr of Grey.

That strikes me as an inexpensive quantity to pay Grey in 2026. And by consuming about half of Grey’s complete remuneration, the Cardinals have turned this right into a baseball commerce, relatively than a wage dump.

So let’s test in on the fellows they’re getting again.

Fitts, the person whose title invitations 1,000,000 lascivious puns, has been out and in of Boston’s rotation over the previous two seasons, with combined outcomes: a 3.97 ERA and 5.02 FIP over 65 2/3 profession innings. Fitts, who turns 26 subsequent month, was a sixth-round pick of Auburn in 2021.

Longtime Successfully Wild listeners would possibly keep in mind Fitts from the Meet a Main Leaguer phase on Episode 2216, the place I guest-hosted and bored Ben to loss of life with the enjoyable reality I’m about to share with you: Fitts’ older brother Trevor was the Sport 1 Faculty World Collection Last starter for Mississippi State in 2013. He — together with Hunter Renfroe, Kendall Graveman, Adam Frazier, and about 25-odd different guys — made up one of many dirtbaggiest, most mullet-having, possum-chasing groups in baseball historical past.

The hitting coach from that group, Nick Mingione, is now the top coach at Kentucky, the place Trevor Fitts at the moment serves as director of participant growth. The pitching coach, Butch Thompson, was Richard Fitts’ faculty head coach at Auburn. Networking is essential, individuals.

I suppose the truth that I simply spent two paragraphs speaking about Fitts’ brother’s post-playing profession job historical past tells you one thing about Fitts as a pitcher. He’s bought a mid-90s fastball with some pure lower, and three breaking pitches. His slider, it’s price stating, bought completely wrecked in 2025: opponents slugged .635 off the pitch final season.

Fitts is a little bit of a undertaking; along with his fastball form, he wants one thing with arm-side motion, and the Pink Sox weren’t capable of finding it for him. He went with a splitter in 2024, and a sinker-changeup combo in 2025, however didn’t throw any of these pitches greater than 11% of the time. If the Cardinals can discover an off-speed pitch that works for him, he’s bought the bodily instruments and command to begin.

And even when the Cardinals don’t discover an off-speed pitch that works, Fitts would possibly find yourself beginning fairly a bit. With Miles Mikolas transferring on and Grey now out of the image, the Cardinals have created a universe the place “Opening Day Starter Andre Pallante” is a practical chance. If nothing else, Fitts can muscle by means of a lineup a pair occasions and hold the sport transferring by means of 5 innings, even when he provides up a couple of runs alongside the way in which. Plus he’s nonetheless younger, with two choices and 6 years of group management left. It’s good to have depth like that.

However the true prize on this deal, for St. Louis, is Clarke. Eric Longenhagen knowledgeable me that whereas this Brandon Clarke just isn’t the identical Brandon Clarke who performs ahead for the Memphis Grizzlies, he does have basketball player-like 7-foot-4 extension off the mound. Right here’s extra from Eric:

Clarke was a junior faculty prospect dedicated to switch to South Carolina, however his arm energy improved all through 2024, and he correctly blew up at that yr’s Draft Mix, the place he touched 98 and sat 95-plus. He signed for $400,000 after which confirmed even greater stuff firstly of 2025 — Clarke was touching 100 and had an unbelievably nasty new slider — which moved him into the 50 FV prospect tier regardless of command and injury-related reduction danger.

And Clarke’s damage historical past is prolonged. He had Tommy John in highschool and surgical procedure for Thoracic Outlet syndrome whereas he was a freshman at Alabama (he by no means pitched in video games there), and he handled a stress fracture in his shoulder at State Faculty of Florida. In 2025, Clarke handled blisters; he missed a month in Might/June however wasn’t formally placed on the IL. After Clarke returned from that darkish month, he by no means pitched past the third inning of any outing, and in mid-August, he once more handled a blister and this time was really placed on the IL.

Clarke’s damage historical past and imprecise really feel for location make it probably that he finally ends up a reliever. However he is perhaps a very nice one, probably the most effective left-handed relievers in all of baseball. He’s sitting 97 for a number of innings, and points of Clarke’s supply, together with issues the Pink Sox have tweaked since drafting him, assist it play up. This man generates seven ft, 4 inches of extension, he delivers from a low arm slot however has a vertical hand place on launch (creating each uphill aircraft and trip), and the Pink Sox made his supply extra cross-bodied and misleading than it was in faculty. The angle on his fastball is a nightmare, particularly when it’s situated across the arms of lefties.

Clarke was a curveball/changeup man on the Mix, however now has a deadly upper-80s slider that may crest 90 mph with enormous size, and it additionally performs up in opposition to lefties due to the modifications made to his supply. I believed he had the makings of a superb changeup on the Mix, however that pitch was barely featured in 2025 as a result of Clarke didn’t want it in his comparatively quick outings. He deserves growth as a starter simply to see if issues work out, however in all chance, Clarke’s future rests in late-inning reduction. However don’t let the reduction projection undersell his prospectdom. That is the type of stuff you see on the finish of video games in October, monstrous, overwhelming, door-slamming stuff.

That’s fairly an evocative prospect profile, however one riddled with sufficient danger that you simply perceive why the Sox had been keen to half with Clarke.

Finally, how we keep in mind this commerce in 5 years — if we keep in mind it in any respect; Grey will get traded rather a lot and so they’re all beginning to run collectively — goes to rely totally on how good the Cardinals’ pitching growth is.

For one extraordinarily costly yr of an growing older starter, in a season the place ending over .500 would in all probability be a pleasing shock, the Cardinals have acquired a possible back-of-the-rotation starter and a possible elite high-leverage energy left-handed reliever. Or, they’ve acquired a replacement-level swingman and a circus act who can’t throw sufficient strikes or keep wholesome sufficient to recover from the center rungs of the minor league ladder.

For that purpose, I can’t declare this commerce to be a theft in both path. It’s a good take care of each upside and danger for everybody concerned. Properly, besides Grey. He simply bought paid an additional $1 million to dramatically enhance his probabilities of pitching within the postseason in 2026. That’s a fairly candy deal.