Relating to this World Collection, figuring out which group is the favourite and which is the underdog is a reasonably simple train. The Blue Jays gained another recreation in the course of the common season than the Dodgers did, however Dodger Blue has tended to be strongly favored over Labatt Blue. The Vegas odds for the Dodgers opened at -215, implying a greater than two-in-three likelihood of a Los Angeles championship; per the analysis of CakesRacer522 on Reddit, solely the 2019 Astros began off with higher odds. For our half, the FanGraphs World Collection odds had been almost as lopsided going into the sequence, projecting a 66.3% likelihood of the Dodgers prevailing. The ZiPS projections weren’t fairly as bullish, however the laptop’s 60/40 break up isn’t quiet a coin flip. The Dodgers additionally spend cash like they’ve their very own foreign money, and gained the World Collection in each 2020 and 2024, whereas the Jays, although themselves a prime 5 payroll group, haven’t sniffed the Fall Basic in additional than 30 years.
So are the Blue Jays doomed? That’s a preposterous query in a recreation as coin-flippy as baseball tends to be; in any case, if the Dodgers had been fated to win, the projections would sit at 100%, not 68% or 66% or 60%. That stated, if the Blue Jays do come out forward, it’ll be an particularly massive plaudit, as a result of they’re not simply dealing with the 2025 Dodgers, they’re dealing with one of the best model of the 2025 Dodgers.
As is their wont, the Dodgers suffered greater than their share of accidents in 2025. As of mid-September, I had them dropping the third-most potential wins as a result of damage within the majors. In 2024, they had been the “champions” of this unhappy class. Final winter, the Dodgers spent almost $400 million on free brokers, most notably Blake Snell, Teoscar Hernández, and Tanner Scott, after having signed Shohei Ohtani the prior offseason. It fueled some fairly loopy projections earlier than the 2025 season, such that the 98 wins forecast by ZiPS really received a whole lot of pushback for being too damaging in regards to the group’s hopes. However as I stated earlier than Opening Day, the Dodgers are so good that they’re on the level the place signing nice gamers comes with more and more diminishing returns, as a result of these guys are protecting for an excellent variety of plate appearances and innings that had been already significantly better than alternative stage. Certainly, the group’s largest enchancment — at the least as ZiPS noticed it — was in making their ground absurdly excessive moderately than their ceiling.
With solely a single beginning pitcher (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) throwing sufficient innings to qualify for the ERA title and no person else even coming shut, that depth got here in helpful. Of the group’s 5 greatest projected beginning pitchers — Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Clayton Kershaw — solely Yamamoto was basically wholesome for your entire season. Ohtani didn’t debut as pitcher till June, and didn’t throw greater than 60 pitches in a recreation till mid-August. Shoulder accidents restricted Snell to 11 begins and Glasnow to 18, and Kershaw missed the primary six weeks of the season. However these guys all made efficient returns, serving to the Dodgers to carry off the Padres in September and win the NL West, and the Blue Jays now have the misfortune of dealing with the Dodgers whereas the latter’s meant rotation is on the mound moderately than the injured listing. As for the bullpen, they nonetheless have quite a few accidents, however Roki Sasaki’s return has helped make the Dodger aid corps about as strong because it has been at every other level this season.
Los Angeles’ offense didn’t take almost as many damage hits in the course of the common season, and with Will Smith wholesome, the Dodgers have your entire band again collectively. Counting lineups versus lefty and righty starters individually, supervisor Dave Roberts has written out 152 distinctive batting orders throughout the common season and the playoffs this yr. Since ZiPS has a primary lineup simulator for questions like these, I ran the present runs-per-game projections for all 152 of these batting orders, highlighting the batting order the Dodgers used for the primary two video games of the World Collection in blue:
ZiPS Projections – 2025 Los Angeles Dodgers Lineups
R/G
SP
1st
2nd
third
4th
fifth
sixth
seventh
eighth
ninth
5.546
R
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Edman
Kim
5.544
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Edman
Kim
5.517
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Teoscar
Edman
Kiké
Pages
5.514
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Muncy
Kiké
Edman
Pages
5.506
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Edman
5.505
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Edman
5.501
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Smith
Muncy
Edman
Pages
Conforto
5.500
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Edman
5.499
R
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Smith
Kiké
Muncy
Pages
Edman
5.483
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Edman
Smith
Conforto
Muncy
Pages
5.478
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Kim
5.473
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Kim
5.473
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Outman
Kim
5.471
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Kim
Outman
5.467
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Freeland
5.458
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Rojas
5.456
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Rojas
5.443
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Smith
Conforto
Pages
Muncy
Rojas
5.438
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Freeland
Name
5.436
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Muncy
Conforto
Edman
Kim
5.431
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Kim
5.430
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Smith
Conforto
Edman
Kim
5.429
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Taylor
5.386
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Conforto
Edman
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.379
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Muncy
Rojas
Name
5.374
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Kiké
Kim
5.373
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Pages
Name
Freeland
Rojas
5.370
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Conforto
Edman
Muncy
Taylor
Pages
5.360
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Edman
Kim
Dashing
5.360
R
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Name
Pages
Freeland
Kiké
5.341
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Muncy
Edman
Dashing
Rojas
5.332
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Kim
Edman
5.323
R
Ohtani
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Kim
5.323
R
Betts
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Kim
Edman
5.320
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Pages
Edman
Conforto
Dashing
5.319
R
Betts
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Freeland
5.317
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Smith
Muncy
Rojas
Pages
5.315
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Dashing
Edman
5.315
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Dashing
5.313
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Edman
Rojas
Ruiz
5.310
R
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Kim
5.309
L
Betts
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Edman
Rojas
Ruiz
5.309
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Kiké
5.306
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Edman
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.305
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Edman
Teoscar
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.304
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Smith
Pages
Edman
Muncy
Kiké
5.303
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Name
Kiké
Rojas
5.301
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Smith
Edman
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.299
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Smith
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.297
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Smith
Name
Kiké
Pages
5.293
R
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Freeland
Kennedy
5.292
R
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Rojas
5.291
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Conforto
Pages
Freeland
Edman
Name
5.290
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Kim
Dashing
5.290
R
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Freeland
Kennedy
5.283
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Dashing
Outman
Kim
5.281
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Freeland
Dashing
5.280
R
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Freeland
Rojas
5.280
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Pages
Conforto
Kim
Rojas
Outman
5.279
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Freeland
Rojas
5.278
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Name
Pages
Rojas
Kennedy
5.278
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Freeland
Dashing
5.278
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Name
Rojas
Kennedy
5.278
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Freeland
Conforto
Pages
Rojas
5.278
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Freeland
Dashing
5.273
R
Betts
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Rojas
Freeland
5.271
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Kiké
Freeland
5.270
R
Betts
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Kim
Rojas
Outman
5.268
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Freeland
Kiké
5.264
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Rojas
Name
Freeland
5.260
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Dashing
Kiké
5.254
R
Ohtani
Pages
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Conforto
Rojas
Outman
Kim
5.249
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Edman
Kiké
Rojas
5.247
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Pages
Edman
Rojas
Ruiz
Outman
5.246
R
Betts
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Dashing
Kim
Edman
Outman
5.244
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Smith
Pages
Edman
Kiké
Rojas
5.244
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Pages
Edman
Kim
Conforto
Dashing
5.238
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Pages
Conforto
Rojas
Name
Dashing
5.218
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Edman
Pages
Rojas
Rortvedt
5.208
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Edman
Pages
Kiké
Rortvedt
5.194
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Edman
Pages
Conforto
Rortvedt
5.189
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Edman
Rortvedt
5.188
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Conforto
Edman
Pages
Rortvedt
5.187
L
Betts
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Rojas
Pages
Ruiz
Dashing
5.182
L
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Smith
Pages
Edman
Muncy
Kiké
Rojas
5.160
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Conforto
Kim
Pages
Rortvedt
5.159
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Smith
Edman
Pages
Muncy
Kiké
Rojas
5.158
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Kiké
Rojas
Rortvedt
5.156
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Name
Rojas
Kennedy
Dashing
5.145
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Smith
Conforto
Pages
Rojas
5.144
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Muncy
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Rojas
Rortvedt
5.142
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Edman
Conforto
Pages
Barnes
5.140
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Kim
Edman
Dashing
5.138
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Kiké
Rojas
Dashing
Edman
5.134
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Name
Rojas
Muncy
Pages
Robinson
5.133
L
Ohtani
Smith
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Edman
Rojas
Ruiz
Kim
5.131
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Edman
Muncy
Pages
Barnes
5.130
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Pages
Muncy
Conforto
Edman
Kim
5.127
R
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Kim
Rojas
5.127
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Edman
Kiké
Dashing
Rojas
5.127
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Dashing
Rojas
5.125
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Rojas
Pages
Kiké
Dashing
5.117
R
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Muncy
Conforto
Edman
Dashing
Kim
5.115
R
Betts
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Edman
Dashing
Rojas
5.107
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Pages
Edman
Kiké
Conforto
Rojas
5.098
R
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Conforto
Smith
Edman
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.096
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Kim
Dashing
Rojas
5.095
R
Ohtani
Betts
Edman
Teoscar
Conforto
Smith
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.094
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Kim
Rojas
Dashing
5.092
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Freeland
Rojas
5.089
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Kim
Dashing
Outman
Rojas
5.088
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Muncy
Pages
Kiké
Conforto
Barnes
5.087
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Freeland
Pages
Conforto
Rojas
Dashing
5.086
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Muncy
Kiké
Conforto
Barnes
5.085
R
Ohtani
Smith
Freeman
Teoscar
Pages
Conforto
Freeland
Rojas
Kennedy
5.084
R
Betts
Ohtani
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Kim
Rojas
Dashing
5.080
R
Betts
Ohtani
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Freeland
Dashing
Rojas
5.070
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Kim
Rojas
Dashing
Ruiz
5.067
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Pages
Kiké
Rojas
Outman
Taylor
5.058
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Name
Freeland
Dashing
Rojas
5.048
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Edman
Conforto
Muncy
Rojas
Barnes
5.042
L
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Muncy
Kiké
Conforto
Dashing
Rojas
5.034
L
Ohtani
Betts
Edman
Teoscar
Smith
Conforto
Muncy
Kiké
Pages
5.014
R
Ohtani
Betts
Edman
Teoscar
Conforto
Smith
Muncy
Kiké
Rojas
5.010
L
Ohtani
Teoscar
Smith
Freeman
Pages
Edman
Kiké
Conforto
Rojas
5.008
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Muncy
Kiké
Conforto
Kim
Barnes
5.008
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Muncy
Conforto
Kiké
Kim
Barnes
5.005
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Rojas
Kiké
Dashing
5.003
L
Ohtani
Betts
Edman
Teoscar
Smith
Kiké
Muncy
Rojas
Taylor
4.991
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Freeman
Pages
Kiké
Conforto
Rojas
Taylor
4.990
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Teoscar
Pages
Edman
Kiké
Conforto
Rojas
4.989
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Pages
Muncy
Kiké
Barnes
4.987
L
Ohtani
Betts
Smith
Teoscar
Pages
Edman
Conforto
Kiké
Rojas
4.983
L
Ohtani
Betts
Edman
Teoscar
Smith
Kiké
Rojas
Pages
Taylor
4.978
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Name
Pages
Kiké
Rortvedt
4.975
L
Ohtani
Betts
Edman
Teoscar
Smith
Kiké
Conforto
Rojas
Pages
4.975
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Name
Pages
Rojas
Kiké
Rortvedt
4.973
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Kiké
Name
Pages
Rortvedt
4.957
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Pages
Kiké
Kim
Rortvedt
4.935
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Name
Rojas
Kiké
Rortvedt
4.916
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Rojas
Pages
Kiké
Rortvedt
4.914
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Kiké
Rojas
Pages
Rortvedt
4.912
R
Edman
Betts
Freeman
Teoscar
Conforto
Smith
Muncy
Rosario
Pages
4.912
L
Ohtani
Edman
Teoscar
Smith
Muncy
Kiké
Conforto
Rojas
Pages
4.835
R
Ohtani
Betts
Freeman
Conforto
Name
Rojas
Kim
Kiké
Rortvedt
4.834
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Freeman
Edman
Pages
Conforto
Rojas
Barnes
4.799
L
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Pages
Kiké
Conforto
Rojas
Dashing
Freeland
4.747
R
Ohtani
Betts
Teoscar
Conforto
Edman
Muncy
Pages
Kiké
Barnes
4.739
R
Ohtani
Betts
Edman
Teoscar
Conforto
Kiké
Muncy
Pages
Barnes
4.719
R
Betts
Freeman
Smith
Conforto
Freeland
Dashing
Pages
Name
Rojas
4.491
R
Edman
Betts
Freeman
Pages
Conforto
Name
Rojas
Kiké
Dashing
4.408
R
Ohtani
Pages
Conforto
Teoscar
Kim
Rojas
Dashing
Kiké
Rortvedt
In different phrases, the Dodgers are in place to throw what is basically their most harmful lineup at Toronto’s group of right-handed beginning pitchers (barring an emergency Eric Lauer begin). ZiPS can be barely happier with Hyeseong Kim within the lineup (seemingly in heart discipline with Andy Pages shifting to left), however given how shut it’s, I can completely perceive not desirous to threat the vengeful wrath of the playoff gods by not taking part in Enrique Hernández as a lot as potential.
Mix the group getting its superb rotation and an almost superb lineup, and ZiPS thinks that this model of the Dodgers isn’t a 93-win group (the membership’s common season wins) or a 95-win group (its Pythagorean win whole), however a 104-win group, even with a comparatively weak bullpen. If the Dodgers are the ultimate boss for the Blue Jays, they’re now of their ultimate kind, and Nobuo Uematsu is cueing within the refrain. And if the Blue Jays are the group that finally ends up with the champagne-soaked uniforms, the victory will probably be all of the sweeter for having come towards one of the best model of their opponent potential. In any case, no person would keep in mind the story of David dealing with off towards Barely Taller David.
