Mark Schlabach, ESPN Senior Author
TROON, Scotland — The Scottish climate turned the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon Golf Membership right into a day of survival Saturday.
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Eire’s Shane Lowry went from being the chief to ninth place in what appeared like a blink of an eye fixed. The 2019 Open Championship winner wasn’t the one one who fell sufferer to chilly rain and stiff winds, particularly on the second 9.
“That is the toughest 9 holes I believe you possibly can ever play in golf proper now,” two-time main championship winner Dustin Johnson mentioned.
Whereas clearer skies are anticipated for the ultimate spherical Sunday, wind may nonetheless be an element.
One factor is obvious: It ought to be an thrilling end with a dozen golfers inside 4 photographs of chief Billy Horschel. Here is a take a look at the highest contenders for the Claret Jug:
Billy Horschel (4 below)
Why he’ll win: All the pieces is working properly proper now for Horschel, who has bounced again from a tough 2023 season with some nice golf. He captured the Corales Puntacana Championship, an opposite-field occasion, on April 21 and tied for eighth on the PGA Championship.
This week, Horschel leads the sector in strokes gained: complete (12.24) and is sixth in strategy (6.10), 14th across the inexperienced (2.35) and seventeenth off the tee (2.76). On Saturday, he did chic work across the inexperienced, getting up and down from greenside bunkers for a birdie on No. 4 and par saves on Nos. 14 and 16.
Why he will not win: Horschel has by no means slept on a 54-hole lead in a serious championship. He hasn’t even been within the combine within the remaining 18 holes of majors, with only one top-five end in 42 profession begins.
“I adore it,” Horschel mentioned. “I’ve labored my total life to be on this place. Hear, I have been within the lead many instances going right into a remaining spherical. Clearly, it is a main. It means a bit bit extra. Everyone knows that. We all know what this implies to everybody. I do know what it means to my legacy within the recreation of golf and what I need to do and attain.
“However I am excited to be right here. I’ve wished to be right here my total life. I am lastly right here. I am embracing it.”
Why he’ll win: The majors monkey is off his again after he lastly captured a Wanamaker Trophy on the PGA Championship in Could. He has been probably the most constant participant within the majors this season, ending eighth on the Masters and tying for seventh on the U.S. Open. He has at the very least one top-10 end in a serious each season since turning professional in 2017.
Why he will not win: The golf gods will not let him get grasping? He would grow to be the primary golfer since Brooks Koepka in 2018 (U.S. Open and PGA Championship) to seize two majors in a single season. His putter has been good this week, however he’s identified to go chilly on the mistaken instances too.
Why he’ll win: He is overdue. The five-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t carried out properly within the majors till this week, with just one top-10 end in his previous 17 begins. He appeared to have a breakthrough with a tie for ninth on the U.S. Open in June. He is too gifted to not carry out higher within the massive 4.
Why he will not win: Burns was one other golfer who benefited from having an early tee time. He had eight birdies in his spherical of 6-under 65. Will his red-hot putter — he ranks third in strokes gained: placing (5.70) — proceed to carry up? He could be the primary golfer since Jack Fleck on the 1955 U.S. Open to win a serious after opening with a rating of 76 or worse.
Why he’ll win: The Englishman figures to have a partisan crowd rooting for him as properly. He has extra expertise than almost the entire different contenders, with 21 begins in The Open. He has averted errors, with solely 4 bogeys or worse within the first 54 holes.
Why he will not win: Historical past is not on Rose’s aspect. An Englishman hasn’t gained The Open since Nick Faldo in 1992. If Rose have been to win, it might have been 4,053 days since his final main championship victory, on the 2013 U.S. Open. That may be the longest stretch in historical past. Julius Boros went 4,026 days between profitable the 1952 and 1963 U.S. Opens.
Why he’ll win: The South African matched Burns for the most effective spherical Saturday with a 6-under 65. He had six birdies in an eight-hole stretch en path to a front-nine 30. He is a four-time winner on the DP World Tour, so he has closed out victories earlier than.
Why he will not win: Lawrence began the third spherical 10 photographs behind chief Shane Lowry, and he undoubtedly caught a break with an earlier tee time. He did not must play within the chilly rain and stiff winds on the again 9. He’ll be enjoying within the remaining group Sunday with Horschel, which he has by no means carried out in a serious. His finest earlier end within the massive 4 was a tie for forty second on the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews in Scotland.
Why he’ll win: Few golfers on tour management the ball in addition to Henley, who posted a 5-under 66 on Saturday. He had six birdies within the first 12 holes and only one bogey, on No. 15. Henley is seventh in strokes gained: strategy (6.09) this week and has hit 70.4% of greens in regulation.
Why he will not win: Henley has struggled up to now when within the hunt at majors. Within the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines outdoors San Diego, he had a share of the lead in every of the primary three rounds. He carded a 5-over 76 within the remaining spherical and tied for thirteenth. He did card a 3-under 67 within the remaining spherical of the U.S. Open in June to tie for seventh.
Why he’ll win: He is the Cinderella story and could have the gang behind him. The 29-year-old son of a pig-and-cow farmer, Brown is not imagined to be close to the highest of the leaderboard. He made the sector by sinking a 20-foot putt on the 18th gap of qualifying. He missed cuts in six of his previous eight begins on the DP World Tour.
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For probably the most half, he has proven nerves of metal whereas competing towards the world’s finest this week. Brown has a red-hot putter, main the sector in strokes gained: placing (7.67), draining greater than 328 ft of putts.
Why he will not: Golfers do not win majors of their debuts. He would grow to be solely the fourth golfer since 1900 to win in his main championship debut — becoming a member of Francis Ouimet (1913 U.S. Open), Ben Curtis (2003 Open) and Keegan Bradley (2011 PGA Championship).
Why he’ll win: The world No. 1 golfer has already gained six instances this season, together with his second victory on the Masters in April. He got here from behind after 36 holes in six of his 11 stroke-play victories in his PGA Tour profession, together with three when he trailed by six strokes or extra: the 2022 WM Phoenix Open, 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Gamers Championship in March.
Scheffler hasn’t had his A-game at Royal Troon this week, however the leaders have not distanced themselves, so he is nonetheless inside hanging distance on the scoreboard.
Why he will not win: Scheffler hasn’t had many putts fall this week. He ranks 114th in strokes gained: placing (-1.61) over the primary 54 holes and was 78th out of 80 gamers (-3.20) on Saturday. In the end, Scheffler’s putts determine to begin falling — or possibly not.
“It was simply one other a kind of days,” Scheffler mentioned. “I take into consideration the putts I hit on 8 and 9 the place I search for and I believe it is getting into, and it goes as much as the opening and it lips out. They are not the truest of surfaces. They’re actually good for hyperlinks, however they’re clearly not good, and it simply hops off line and did not go in.
“It may be irritating, however I felt like at this time was one other a kind of days the place I simply did a very good job of not getting overly annoyed, staying in an excellent head house and did an excellent job of actually staying within the event.”
Shane Lowry (1 below)
Why he’ll win: He was the second-round chief and was cruising till he bumped into bother on the par-3 eighth gap Saturday. After making a double-bogey 5 on the opening often known as Postage Stamp, he made 5 bogeys on the again 9 for a 6-over 76. Till then, he had battled the wind and rain higher than anybody else within the area.
Why he will not win: Lowry regarded downright uncomfortable and missed two putts that have been about 5 ft. He hit his strategy shot on No. 18 a few rows into the grandstands. His mojo is likely to be gone. Can he regain his confidence after such a forgettable end Saturday?
Why he’ll win: After grinding to maintain himself within the event for the weekend, Thomas made six birdies in his first 12 holes Saturday to get himself in hanging distance. He is without doubt one of the higher gamers on the earth with a wedge in his arms and performs with plenty of creativity across the greens. He is a two-time PGA Championship winner and has carried out below stress earlier than. He’s utilizing a brand new putter and has caught fireplace on the greens, gaining 3.37 strokes on the sector.
Why he will not win: Thomas’ type hasn’t been nice the previous couple of seasons, and his recreation nonetheless appears to be fairly unstable. He carded a 3-under 68 within the first spherical and adopted it with a 7-over 78 on Saturday.
Why he’ll win: The 44-year-old, who gained the Masters in 2013, relishes the possibility to play an excellent hyperlinks course, and he has regarded proper at dwelling at Royal Troon, particularly Saturday when he posted a 5-under 66 earlier than the rain got here. His work across the inexperienced has been spectacular, gaining 3 strokes on the sector.
Why he will not win: Scott did not even assume he’d be within the combine with so many golfers in entrance of him when he walked off the course Saturday. Possibly he’s too far again with so many nice ones forward of him.
“Nicely, I am in all probability not going to be within the combine, let’s be trustworthy,” Scott mentioned. “I am probably 9 photographs behind, seven to 9 photographs behind, I might guess. If I’m, then that is a bonus, however I’ll want wind and all the pieces to be in my favor to form of be within the combine.”
The wind was in his favor and he is solely 4 photographs again.
